Pfizer Faces Patent Cliff Challenges Amid Turnaround Potential
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 01 2026
0mins
Should l Buy PFE?
Source: Fool
- Vaccine Demand Decline: Pfizer experienced significant gains during the pandemic due to its COVID-19 vaccine, but as demand has waned, the stock has plummeted over 50% from its 2021 peak, indicating investor concerns about future growth prospects.
- Patent Cliff Risks: With multiple patents set to expire, Pfizer faces potential rapid declines in revenue and profit, particularly as investor confidence in its drug development pipeline has been shaken by the lack of new blockbuster drugs to offset these losses.
- Acquisitions and Partnerships: Pfizer has acquired a company with a promising GLP-1 drug pipeline and agreed to distribute a GLP-1 therapy for a Chinese firm, demonstrating its proactive strategies to mitigate risks associated with patent expirations.
- Attractive Dividend Yield: With a current dividend yield of 6.7%, Pfizer allocates all profits to dividends, which may appeal to investors; however, caution is advised due to the potential for future dividend cuts impacting cash flow.
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Analyst Views on PFE
Wall Street analysts forecast PFE stock price to rise
16 Analyst Rating
5 Buy
11 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 27.140
Low
24.00
Averages
28.56
High
35.00
Current: 27.140
Low
24.00
Averages
28.56
High
35.00
About PFE
Pfizer Inc. is a research-based, global biopharmaceutical company. The Company is engaged in the discovery, development, manufacture, marketing, sale and distribution of biopharmaceutical products worldwide. Its Biopharma segment includes the Pfizer U.S. Commercial Division, and the Pfizer International Commercial Division. Its product categories include oncology, primary care and specialty care. Its oncology products include Ibrance, Xtandi, Padcev, Adcetris, Inlyta, Lorbrena, Bosulif, Tukysa, Braftovi, Mektovi, Orgovyx, Elrexfio, Tivdak and Talzenna. Its primary care products include Eliquis, Nurtec ODT/Vydura, Zavzpret, the Prevnar family, Comirnaty, Abrysvo, FSME/IMMUN-TicoVac, Nimenrix, Trumenba, and Paxlovid. Its specialty care products include Xeljanz, Enbrel (outside the United States and Canada), Inflectra, Abrilada, Cibinqo, Litfulo, Eucrisa, Velsipity, the Vyndaqel family, Genotropin, BeneFIX, Xyntha, Somavert, Ngenla, Hympavzi, Sulperazon, Zavicefta, Octagam and others.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Resistance Advantage: In vitro studies indicate that VH184 exhibits improved potency and resistance characteristics compared to bictegravir, retaining activity against various resistant HIV strains, highlighting its importance and competitive potential in future HIV treatments.
- VH499 Tolerability: VH499, an investigational capsid inhibitor, demonstrates good tolerability in clinical trials, supporting ultra-long-acting dosing every six months, potentially providing more treatment options for HIV patients and further driving ViiV's innovation in HIV care.
- R&D Commitment: ViiV Healthcare is committed to advancing innovative long-acting HIV therapies, with early data on VH184 and VH499 showcasing the company's efforts to reduce daily treatment needs, aligning with patient demands for more flexible treatment options and potentially transforming the future of HIV care.
See More
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- Market Share Leadership: Eli Lilly currently holds a 60% share of the U.S. weight loss drug market, surpassing Novo Nordisk's offerings, demonstrating strong competitiveness in this rapidly growing sector and likely driving further revenue growth.
- Clinical Trial Advantage: In the latest clinical trial, Lilly's Zepbound helped patients lose over 25% of their weight over 84 weeks, compared to only 23% for Novo's CagriSema, indicating superior efficacy and solidifying its market leadership.
- Convenience Enhancement: Lilly's newly released Zepbound format holds a month's worth of doses in a single pen, improving medication convenience for patients, especially while traveling, which is expected to enhance patient adherence and market appeal.
- Broad Market Outlook: Analysts expect the weight loss drug market to reach nearly $100 billion over the next four years, with Lilly's new drug orforglipron and other potential products poised to drive further growth, despite facing challenges from competitors like Novo Nordisk.
See More
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- Market Share Growth: Eli Lilly has captured a 60% share of the U.S. GLP-1 drug market, surpassing Novo Nordisk, which indicates strong competitive positioning in the weight loss drug sector and is expected to drive further revenue growth.
- Clinical Trial Superiority: In the latest clinical trials, Lilly's Zepbound outperformed Novo Nordisk's CagriSema, with a 15mg dosage of tirzepatide resulting in over 25% weight loss over 84 weeks, providing robust support for Lilly's market position.
- Convenience Innovation: Lilly's new Zepbound format, which holds a month's worth of doses, enhances patient convenience, particularly during travel, and is expected to improve patient adherence, thereby boosting sales.
- Expansive Market Outlook: Analysts project the GLP-1 market to reach nearly $100 billion in the next four years, with Lilly's orforglipron and other potential drugs likely to drive further growth, despite facing challenges from Novo Nordisk and other competitors.
See More
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- Significant Valuation Discount: Novo Nordisk's P/E ratio stands at just 10.6x, dramatically lower than Eli Lilly's 45.4x and other pharma peers, indicating market pessimism regarding its future growth, which could undermine investor confidence.
- Reset of Market Expectations: While concerns over competition and slowing growth have emerged, Novo Nordisk maintains its leadership in the global obesity drug market, which is expected to expand significantly over the next decade, potentially creating new opportunities for the company.
- From Hypergrowth to Deep Value: The collapse in Novo Nordisk's stock price has erased its growth premium, replacing it with a valuation typically associated with declining businesses, suggesting that investors may be undervaluing its core assets, presenting potential investment opportunities.
- Long-Term Relevance Remains: Despite the current earnings yield of 9.4% reflecting market pessimism, Novo Nordisk still controls one of the most important drug platforms in modern healthcare, indicating that its long-term prospects warrant attention.
See More
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- Sales Forecast Downgrade: Novo Nordisk anticipates a 5% to 13% decline in sales and profits for 2026, marking the first annual sales drop since 2017, reflecting the company's vulnerability amid fierce competition and pricing pressures, which may further erode investor confidence.
- Drug Development Challenges: The disappointing trial results of Novo's next-generation weight loss drug CagriSema against Eli Lilly's Zepbound led to a more than 16% drop in stock price on the day of the announcement, significantly diminishing analysts' confidence in its commercial potential and possibly affecting future market performance.
- Increasing Pricing Pressure: The decline in GLP-1 drug prices in the U.S. is weighing on Novo Nordisk's revenue and profitability, especially since the U.S. market has accounted for over half of its total sales since 2023, making future pricing strategies critical for the company's ability to regain growth.
See More
