Oil Prices Surge: Comparing Chevron and Occidental Petroleum
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1 hour ago
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Should l Buy CVX?
Source: Fool
- Surge in Oil Prices: Brent crude oil prices have skyrocketed over 75% this year, surpassing $105 per barrel, while WTI approaches $95, prompting investors to reconsider the timing for investing in oil stocks.
- Chevron's Production Capacity: Chevron produced 3.7 million barrels of oil equivalent per day last year, a 12% increase driven by expansion projects and the acquisition of Hess, showcasing its strong competitive position in international markets.
- Occidental's Flexibility: Occidental Petroleum focuses primarily on unconventional wells in the U.S., producing nearly 1.5 million BOE/d last year; while it offers flexibility, its long-term growth visibility is limited, with plans to cut capital spending by $550 million by 2026.
- Dividends and Growth Outlook: Chevron expects over 10% annual free cash flow growth, with a dividend yield of 3.5%, compared to Occidental's 1.8%, making Chevron a more attractive long-term investment option due to its robust dividend history and growth prospects.
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Analyst Views on CVX
Wall Street analysts forecast CVX stock price to fall
19 Analyst Rating
15 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 201.440
Low
158.00
Averages
176.95
High
206.00
Current: 201.440
Low
158.00
Averages
176.95
High
206.00
About CVX
Chevron Corporation is an integrated energy company. The Company produces crude oil and natural gas; manufactures transportation fuels, lubricants, petrochemicals and additives; and develops technologies that enhance its business and industry. The Company’s segments include Upstream and Downstream. Upstream operations consist primarily of exploring for, developing, producing and transporting crude oil and natural gas; liquefaction, transportation and regasification associated with LNG; transporting crude oil by major international oil export pipelines; processing, transporting, storage and marketing of natural gas; carbon capture and storage; and a gas-to-liquids plant. Downstream operations consist primarily of the refining of crude oil into petroleum products; marketing crude oil, refined products, and lubricants; manufacturing and marketing of renewable fuels, and transporting of crude oil and refined products by pipeline, marine vessel, motor equipment and rail car.
About the author

Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
- Business Stability: Chevron operates across all three major phases of the oil and gas ecosystem—upstream, midstream, and downstream—allowing it to maintain relative stability when one segment faces challenges, as the other segments can compensate for losses.
- Stock Performance: As of March 16, Chevron's stock has risen over 26% year-to-date; however, investors should not expect this performance to continue indefinitely, yet its consistent dividend yield is nearly three times that of the S&P 500, making it a solid income source.
- Market Attention: Despite being a noteworthy energy company, Chevron was not included in the current best stock picks by The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team, indicating a cautious market sentiment regarding its future performance.
- Investment Potential: Given Chevron's stability and dividend yield, while it may not be on the best stock list, it still holds potential for reliable returns over the next decade, especially in the context of rising energy prices.
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- Surge in Oil Prices: Brent crude oil prices have skyrocketed over 75% this year, surpassing $105 per barrel, while WTI approaches $95, prompting investors to reconsider the timing for investing in oil stocks.
- Chevron's Production Capacity: Chevron produced 3.7 million barrels of oil equivalent per day last year, a 12% increase driven by expansion projects and the acquisition of Hess, showcasing its strong competitive position in international markets.
- Occidental's Flexibility: Occidental Petroleum focuses primarily on unconventional wells in the U.S., producing nearly 1.5 million BOE/d last year; while it offers flexibility, its long-term growth visibility is limited, with plans to cut capital spending by $550 million by 2026.
- Dividends and Growth Outlook: Chevron expects over 10% annual free cash flow growth, with a dividend yield of 3.5%, compared to Occidental's 1.8%, making Chevron a more attractive long-term investment option due to its robust dividend history and growth prospects.
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- Production and Growth Potential: Chevron produced 3.7 million BOE/d last year, marking a 12% increase driven by expansion projects and the acquisition of Hess, showcasing its strong growth potential in the global market; in contrast, Occidental produced nearly 1.5 million BOE/d, with 84% from U.S. operations, resulting in lower growth visibility.
- Integration Advantage: As an integrated energy company, Chevron's upstream production flows through midstream transportation to downstream refining and chemicals, maximizing production value and mitigating commodity price volatility; in comparison, Occidental's reduced integration following the sale of its chemicals subsidiary has led to decreased business flexibility.
- Capital Expenditure and Investment Strategy: Occidental plans to cut capital spending by $550 million in 2026, expecting only a 1% production growth, while Chevron's mix of short-cycle and long-cycle investments is projected to yield a 2% to 3% compound annual growth rate over the next five years, driving over 10% free cash flow growth.
- Dividend and Financial Stability: Chevron's high-yield dividend stands at 3.5%, supporting 39 years of dividend increases, whereas Occidental's dividend is at 1.8% and has faced cuts, highlighting Chevron's advantages in financial stability and long-term investment appeal.
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- Oil Price Surge: Brent crude oil prices have surged over 75% to exceed $105 per barrel, while WTI approaches $95, prompting investors to reconsider the timing for investing in oil stocks amidst geopolitical tensions.
- Chevron Production Growth: Chevron produced 3.7 million barrels of oil equivalent per day last year, marking a 12% increase driven by expansion projects and the acquisition of Hess, showcasing its strong competitive position in international markets.
- Occidental Flexibility: Occidental produced nearly 1.5 million BOE/d last year, with 84% from U.S. operations; while its operational flexibility is notable, it lacks long-term growth visibility, planning to cut capital spending by $550 million by 2026.
- Dividend Performance Comparison: Chevron boasts a dividend yield of 3.5%, supporting 39 consecutive years of dividend increases, whereas Occidental's yield is only 1.8% and has faced dividend cuts, highlighting significant differences in financial stability between the two companies.
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- Oil Price Forecast: United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby anticipates oil prices reaching $175 and remaining above $100 through 2027, reflecting potential pressures on the airline industry and prompting proactive planning to mitigate rising costs.
- Market Reaction: The Nasdaq has entered a correction for the fourth consecutive week, indicating growing investor concerns over U.S.-Iran conflict, with safe-haven assets like gold and bonds also declining, showcasing a pessimistic outlook on future economic stability.
- Energy Sector Response: CFOs in the energy sector are scenario planning for three potential outcomes regarding the Strait of Hormuz's closure, which introduces significant operational risks and could destabilize the global economy amid rising uncertainty.
- Supply Chain Crisis: Experts warn that if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened by April 1, a global energy crisis could ensue, particularly affecting countries like India, Japan, and South Korea, which may need to curtail industrial production due to soaring oil prices, exacerbating supply chain tensions worldwide.
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- Energy Price Risk: With oil prices nearing $100 per barrel and energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf under attack, investors should consider buying stocks in energy companies like Equinor, PBF Energy, and Chevron to hedge against the risk of prolonged high energy prices.
- Equinor's Positive Outlook: The International Energy Agency estimates that 80% of oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz is destined for Asia, and as Norway's largest natural gas supplier, Equinor's projected earnings per share for 2026 have risen from $2.66 to $3.26, indicating strong market demand.
- PBF Energy's Strong Performance: PBF Energy's 3-2-1 crack spread has widened from $19.80 per barrel at the start of the year to $52, reflecting significant profits due to difficulties faced by competitors in sourcing crude oil, which has driven up the company's stock price.
- Chevron's Risk Mitigation: While PBF Energy faces risks from potential demand destruction amid high oil prices, Chevron, as an integrated major primarily focused on crude production, stands to benefit from rising oil prices, thus providing a risk balance for investors.
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