Oil Prices Surge Amid Escalating US-Iran Tensions
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 11 hours ago
0mins
Source: CNBC
- Oil Price Surge: Oil prices surged as President Trump warned of further military action against Iran in the next two to three weeks, with West Texas Intermediate crude futures rising 4.1% to $104.21 per barrel and Brent crude futures increasing 5% to $106.42 per barrel, reflecting market sensitivity to geopolitical risks.
- Shipping Resumption: The Liberia-flagged crude oil tanker Shenlong Suezmax successfully docked at Mumbai Port after navigating the high-risk Strait of Hormuz, indicating a recovery in tanker movements amidst escalating West Asia conflict, potentially alleviating market concerns over supply disruptions.
- Trump's Hardline Stance: Trump stated in a national address that the U.S. would
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Analyst Views on XOM
Wall Street analysts forecast XOM stock price to fall
19 Analyst Rating
12 Buy
7 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 160.780
Low
114.00
Averages
132.17
High
158.00
Current: 160.780
Low
114.00
Averages
132.17
High
158.00
About XOM
Exxon Mobil Corporation is an energy provider and chemical manufacturer. The Company’s principal business involves exploration for, and production of, crude oil and natural gas; the manufacture, trade, transport and sale of crude oil, natural gas, petroleum products, petrochemicals and a wide variety of specialty products; and pursuit of lower-emission and other new business opportunities, including carbon capture and storage, hydrogen, lower-emission fuels, Proxxima systems, carbon materials, and lithium. Its Upstream segment explores for and produces crude oil and natural gas. The Energy Products, Chemical Products, and Specialty Products segments manufacture and sell petroleum products and petrochemicals. Energy Products segment includes fuels, aromatics, and catalysts and licensing. Chemical Products segment consists of olefins, polyolefins, and intermediates. Specialty Products segment includes finished lubricants, basestocks and waxes, synthetics, and elastomers and resins.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
ExxonMobil and QatarEnergy Complete First LNG Train at Golden Pass
- Timely Project Completion: ExxonMobil and QatarEnergy have completed the first LNG train at their Golden Pass project in Texas, with a capacity of 6 million metric tons per annum, expected to be fully operational next year, significantly enhancing the company's competitiveness in the global LNG market.
- Market Disruption Impact: The startup of Golden Pass will help fill the 12.8 million metric tons of capacity lost by Qatar due to damage from Iranian attacks, ensuring stability in the LNG supply amid significant disruptions in the global market caused by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
- 2030 Growth Projections: ExxonMobil anticipates achieving $25 billion in annual earnings growth and $35 billion in additional cash flow by 2030, indicating a strong potential for double-digit compound annual growth over the next five years, further solidifying its market position.
- Investment Strategy: The company is actively investing in high-return projects, with Golden Pass being part of its global energy expansion strategy, expected to drive robust earnings and cash flow growth in the next five years, especially given the current high energy prices.
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Oil Price Surge Drives Energy Stocks Higher Amid Iran War Concerns
- Energy Stocks Surge: Following President Trump's speech, oil prices surged over 7%, leading to a 4.3% increase in APA shares, while Diamondback Energy, ConocoPhillips, Devon Energy, Exxon Mobil, and Chevron saw about 3% gains, indicating market optimism regarding energy demand.
- Cruise Stocks Decline: Major cruise operators like Carnival, Royal Caribbean, and Norwegian Cruise Line fell about 4% as Trump's speech failed to provide a clear path to end the Iran war, heightening concerns over demand.
- Airlines Under Pressure: Rising oil prices caused airline stocks to tumble, with Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, Southwest Airlines, and Alaska Air all dropping about 4%, reflecting the negative impact of high oil prices on airline profitability.
- Gold Miners Slide: After Trump's speech, gold prices fell 1%, leading to declines of about 5% for Newmont and Kinross Gold, and nearly 6% for Iamgold, indicating a weakening demand for safe-haven assets.
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- Deteriorating Job Data: The U.S. lost 92,000 jobs in February, significantly worse than expected, leading to a 40% probability assessment for a U.S. recession, which could negatively impact consumer spending and corporate earnings.
- Energy Stocks Benefit: In a stagflation scenario, ExxonMobil (XOM), the largest energy company in the U.S., stands to gain as rising oil and gas prices boost its revenues and share price, making it a preferred safe haven for investors amid economic uncertainty.
- Defensive Stock Strategy: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Walmart (WMT) are viewed as top defensive investments in a stagnating economy with high inflation, with J&J benefiting from stable demand for medical products and Walmart leveraging its position in low-priced consumer goods to maintain steady returns during stagflation.
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Trump Blames Iran for Rising Gas Prices Amid Conflict
- Cause of Price Surge: In a prime-time address, Trump stated that U.S. gasoline prices have risen over 30% since the onset of the war, now exceeding $4 per gallon, attributing this spike to Iranian attacks on oil tankers and regional targets, highlighting the direct impact of geopolitical tensions on energy markets.
- Futures Market Reaction: At press time, gasoline futures rose by 5.9%, while crude oil futures increased by 6.2% to $106.3 per barrel, and Brent prices surged over 6.5% to $107.7 per barrel, indicating market concerns over potential supply disruptions due to the conflict.
- Wider Impact: The rising gasoline prices could affect retailers like BJ’s Wholesale Club, Costco, and Walmart, which rely on gasoline sales to drive store traffic, suggesting that fluctuations in oil prices could have broader implications for consumer markets and retail strategies.
- Future Outlook: Trump threatened to hit Iran 'extremely hard' even as the war nears its end, with potential resolution in 2-3 weeks, creating uncertainty that may lead to continued volatility in oil prices, impacting investor confidence and market stability.
See More
Trump Threatens Hard Hits on Iran in Coming Weeks
- Market Reaction: Trump's national address threatening to hit Iran 'extremely hard' led to a significant drop in Asian stocks, with South Korea's KOSPI plunging 4.37%, indicating market sensitivity to geopolitical tensions.
- Rising Treasury Yields: Following the speech, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury notes climbed 6 basis points to 4.38%, reflecting a sell-off in the bond market that could impact future borrowing costs.
- Oil Price Volatility: Brent crude futures surged 5.37% to $106.59 per barrel, highlighting market concerns over potential disruptions in energy supply, exacerbated by Trump's statements about escalating tensions.
- Currency Market Fluctuations: The U.S. dollar index rose 0.37% to 100.02, while the Japanese yen and South Korean won weakened by 0.38% and 0.6%, respectively, indicating increased confidence in U.S. economic policy amidst regional uncertainties.
See More
Trump's Address Triggers Market Volatility
- War Progress Update: In his national address, Trump claimed unprecedented victories in the U.S. campaign dubbed 'Operation Epic Fury,' while forecasting the conflict to last another two to three weeks, heightening market concerns about future developments.
- Oil Price Surge: Following the speech, international benchmark Brent crude futures rose nearly 6%, with Trump attributing the price increase to Iranian attacks on commercial oil tankers, illustrating the direct impact of geopolitical tensions on energy markets.
- Negative Market Reaction: Asia-Pacific markets broadly declined after Trump's address, with major indices such as Hong Kong's Hang Seng, Japan's Nikkei 225, South Korea's Kospi, and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 all retreating, reflecting investor unease about the future situation.
- Escalating Tensions with Iran: Trump threatened that the U.S. would continue to strike Iran hard unless the Strait of Hormuz is 'open, free, and clear,' indicating a worsening relationship between the U.S. and Iran that could affect global energy supplies.
See More
ExxonMobil and QatarEnergy Complete First LNG Train at Golden Pass
- Timely Project Completion: ExxonMobil and QatarEnergy have completed the first LNG train at their Golden Pass project in Texas, with a capacity of 6 million metric tons per annum, expected to be fully operational next year, significantly enhancing the company's competitiveness in the global LNG market.
- Market Disruption Impact: The startup of Golden Pass will help fill the 12.8 million metric tons of capacity lost by Qatar due to damage from Iranian attacks, ensuring stability in the LNG supply amid significant disruptions in the global market caused by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
- 2030 Growth Projections: ExxonMobil anticipates achieving $25 billion in annual earnings growth and $35 billion in additional cash flow by 2030, indicating a strong potential for double-digit compound annual growth over the next five years, further solidifying its market position.
- Investment Strategy: The company is actively investing in high-return projects, with Golden Pass being part of its global energy expansion strategy, expected to drive robust earnings and cash flow growth in the next five years, especially given the current high energy prices.
See More
Oil Price Surge Drives Energy Stocks Higher Amid Iran War Concerns
- Energy Stocks Surge: Following President Trump's speech, oil prices surged over 7%, leading to a 4.3% increase in APA shares, while Diamondback Energy, ConocoPhillips, Devon Energy, Exxon Mobil, and Chevron saw about 3% gains, indicating market optimism regarding energy demand.
- Cruise Stocks Decline: Major cruise operators like Carnival, Royal Caribbean, and Norwegian Cruise Line fell about 4% as Trump's speech failed to provide a clear path to end the Iran war, heightening concerns over demand.
- Airlines Under Pressure: Rising oil prices caused airline stocks to tumble, with Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, Southwest Airlines, and Alaska Air all dropping about 4%, reflecting the negative impact of high oil prices on airline profitability.
- Gold Miners Slide: After Trump's speech, gold prices fell 1%, leading to declines of about 5% for Newmont and Kinross Gold, and nearly 6% for Iamgold, indicating a weakening demand for safe-haven assets.
See More
Stagflation Fears Rise: Investment Strategies for Resilience
- Surge in Stagflation Searches: Google Trends indicates a 650% increase in searches for 'stagflation 2026' over the past three months, highlighting growing market concerns about economic stagnation and high inflation, prompting investors to reassess potential recession risks.
- Deteriorating Job Data: The U.S. lost 92,000 jobs in February, significantly worse than expected, leading to a 40% probability assessment for a U.S. recession, which could negatively impact consumer spending and corporate earnings.
- Energy Stocks Benefit: In a stagflation scenario, ExxonMobil (XOM), the largest energy company in the U.S., stands to gain as rising oil and gas prices boost its revenues and share price, making it a preferred safe haven for investors amid economic uncertainty.
- Defensive Stock Strategy: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Walmart (WMT) are viewed as top defensive investments in a stagnating economy with high inflation, with J&J benefiting from stable demand for medical products and Walmart leveraging its position in low-priced consumer goods to maintain steady returns during stagflation.
See More
Trump Blames Iran for Rising Gas Prices Amid Conflict
- Cause of Price Surge: In a prime-time address, Trump stated that U.S. gasoline prices have risen over 30% since the onset of the war, now exceeding $4 per gallon, attributing this spike to Iranian attacks on oil tankers and regional targets, highlighting the direct impact of geopolitical tensions on energy markets.
- Futures Market Reaction: At press time, gasoline futures rose by 5.9%, while crude oil futures increased by 6.2% to $106.3 per barrel, and Brent prices surged over 6.5% to $107.7 per barrel, indicating market concerns over potential supply disruptions due to the conflict.
- Wider Impact: The rising gasoline prices could affect retailers like BJ’s Wholesale Club, Costco, and Walmart, which rely on gasoline sales to drive store traffic, suggesting that fluctuations in oil prices could have broader implications for consumer markets and retail strategies.
- Future Outlook: Trump threatened to hit Iran 'extremely hard' even as the war nears its end, with potential resolution in 2-3 weeks, creating uncertainty that may lead to continued volatility in oil prices, impacting investor confidence and market stability.
See More
Trump Threatens Hard Hits on Iran in Coming Weeks
- Market Reaction: Trump's national address threatening to hit Iran 'extremely hard' led to a significant drop in Asian stocks, with South Korea's KOSPI plunging 4.37%, indicating market sensitivity to geopolitical tensions.
- Rising Treasury Yields: Following the speech, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury notes climbed 6 basis points to 4.38%, reflecting a sell-off in the bond market that could impact future borrowing costs.
- Oil Price Volatility: Brent crude futures surged 5.37% to $106.59 per barrel, highlighting market concerns over potential disruptions in energy supply, exacerbated by Trump's statements about escalating tensions.
- Currency Market Fluctuations: The U.S. dollar index rose 0.37% to 100.02, while the Japanese yen and South Korean won weakened by 0.38% and 0.6%, respectively, indicating increased confidence in U.S. economic policy amidst regional uncertainties.
See More
Trump's Address Triggers Market Volatility
- War Progress Update: In his national address, Trump claimed unprecedented victories in the U.S. campaign dubbed 'Operation Epic Fury,' while forecasting the conflict to last another two to three weeks, heightening market concerns about future developments.
- Oil Price Surge: Following the speech, international benchmark Brent crude futures rose nearly 6%, with Trump attributing the price increase to Iranian attacks on commercial oil tankers, illustrating the direct impact of geopolitical tensions on energy markets.
- Negative Market Reaction: Asia-Pacific markets broadly declined after Trump's address, with major indices such as Hong Kong's Hang Seng, Japan's Nikkei 225, South Korea's Kospi, and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 all retreating, reflecting investor unease about the future situation.
- Escalating Tensions with Iran: Trump threatened that the U.S. would continue to strike Iran hard unless the Strait of Hormuz is 'open, free, and clear,' indicating a worsening relationship between the U.S. and Iran that could affect global energy supplies.
See More
