Nvidia's Q4 Earnings Prediction and Market Impact
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 2 hours ago
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Should l Buy NVDA?
Source: Fool
- Earnings Date Set: Nvidia is scheduled to announce its fiscal 2025 Q4 results on February 25, 2026, with a revenue estimate of $65.6 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of approximately 71%, indicating a robust business foundation, yet the market's reaction to its stock price may not be optimistic.
- High Expectations Issue: Although Nvidia has consistently beaten Wall Street estimates in the past four quarters, its stock has declined after three earnings reports, highlighting the market's sensitivity to exceeding expectations, as investors may sell off shares due to concerns about future performance.
- Memory Shortage Risk: Should Nvidia's management indicate that memory supply issues could impact GPU sales during the earnings call, it could trigger panic among investors, leading to a stock price drop, reflecting the market's heightened concern over supply chain challenges.
- AI ROI Skepticism: With increasing skepticism regarding the return on investment from AI spending, Nvidia faces additional challenges; similar to Microsoft and Alphabet, which reported strong earnings but saw stock declines due to rising AI expenditures, Nvidia may also be affected by this trend.
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Analyst Views on NVDA
Wall Street analysts forecast NVDA stock price to rise
41 Analyst Rating
39 Buy
1 Hold
1 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 182.810
Low
200.00
Averages
264.97
High
352.00
Current: 182.810
Low
200.00
Averages
264.97
High
352.00
About NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation is a full-stack computing infrastructure company. The Company is engaged in accelerated computing to help solve the challenging computational problems. The Company’s segments include Compute & Networking and Graphics. The Compute & Networking segment includes its Data Center accelerated computing platforms and artificial intelligence (AI) solutions and software; networking; automotive platforms and autonomous and electric vehicle solutions; Jetson for robotics and other embedded platforms, and DGX Cloud computing services. The Graphics segment includes GeForce GPUs for gaming and PCs, the GeForce NOW game streaming service and related infrastructure, and solutions for gaming platforms; Quadro/NVIDIA RTX GPUs for enterprise workstation graphics; virtual GPU software for cloud-based visual and virtual computing; automotive platforms for infotainment systems, and Omniverse Enterprise software for building and operating industrial AI and digital twin applications.
About the author

Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Increased Capital Expenditures: Major tech companies plan to further increase capital expenditures in 2026, primarily for AI infrastructure, which will directly boost Nvidia's GPU sales and solidify its market dominance.
- Surge in Product Demand: CEO Jensen Huang noted that demand for the Blackwell platform data center products is “off the charts,” indicating rapid growth in market demand for Nvidia's AI computing products.
- Record of Exceeding Estimates: Nvidia has surpassed Wall Street's earnings expectations in 20 out of the last 22 quarters, demonstrating strong performance stability and management's clear visibility into future results, with expectations to continue this trend.
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- Nvidia Holdings Change: As of December 31, 2025, Tiger Global's shares in Nvidia decreased to 11.01 million, down from 11.71 million on September 30, 2025, yet Nvidia remains one of its largest equity positions, reflecting a cautious approach towards near-term valuations.
- Mixed Market Signals: Despite strong AI spending and earnings growth, the market has shown mixed signals regarding the sustainability of AI-led gains, with some analysts warning of bubble risks in parts of the tech sector, particularly among the so-called
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