Microsoft Faces Pressure for Stock Split Amid AI Boom
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1 hour ago
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Should l Buy MSFT?
Source: Fool
- Dow Jones Pressure: As a component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Microsoft's stock price, currently around $400, significantly influences the index, potentially prompting a stock split before reaching a four-digit price to maintain its standing.
- AI Growth Potential: S&P Global projects a 40% compound annual growth rate for AI from 2024 to 2029, with analysts believing Microsoft will outperform the market in 2026, further increasing the likelihood of a stock split.
- Market Comparison: Despite Microsoft's high stock price, it ranks as the third most expensive among the Dow 30, facing pressure from higher-priced stocks like Goldman Sachs ($900) and Caterpillar ($780), which may delay Microsoft's split decision.
- Investor Watch: While the possibility of a Microsoft stock split is increasing, it is unlikely to occur in the near term; investors should monitor the performance of Goldman Sachs and Caterpillar, as their potential splits could influence Microsoft's timing.
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Analyst Views on MSFT
Wall Street analysts forecast MSFT stock price to rise
34 Analyst Rating
32 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 401.320
Low
500.00
Averages
631.36
High
678.00
Current: 401.320
Low
500.00
Averages
631.36
High
678.00
About MSFT
Microsoft Corporation is a technology company that develops and supports software, services, devices, and solutions. Its Productivity and Business Processes segment consists of products and services in its portfolio of productivity, communication, and information services, spanning a variety of devices and platforms. It comprises Microsoft 365 Commercial products and cloud services; Microsoft 365 Consumer products and cloud services; LinkedIn, and Dynamics products and cloud services. The Intelligent Cloud segment consists of its public, private, and hybrid server products and cloud services. It comprises server products and cloud services, including Azure, and enterprise and partner services, including Enterprise Support Services. Its More Personal Computing segment primarily comprises Windows and Devices, including Windows OEM licensing; Gaming, including Xbox hardware and Xbox content; Search and news advertising, comprising Bing and Copilot, Microsoft News, and Microsoft Edge.
About the author

Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
- Massive Investment: Microsoft announced at the India AI Impact Summit its plan to invest $50 billion by the end of the decade to enhance AI access in Global South countries, demonstrating its commitment to emerging markets and long-term growth.
- Five-Part Strategic Plan: The company's five-part strategy includes empowering schools and nonprofits through technology and skills, strengthening multilingual and multicultural AI capabilities, enabling local AI innovations to meet community needs, and measuring AI diffusion to guide future policies and investments, aiming to enhance AI's societal impact comprehensively.
- Food Security Initiative: Microsoft also unveiled a new AI initiative aimed at strengthening food security across Sub-Saharan Africa, starting in Kenya and designed for regional scalability, reflecting its focus on addressing local challenges through technology.
- Global AI Gathering: India is set to host one of the world's largest AI gatherings, with Prime Minister Modi aiming to position the country as a key player in the global race for advanced AI models, attracting top executives from major tech firms including Microsoft, thereby enhancing India's influence in the global AI landscape.
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- Nvidia Reduces ARM Stake: Nvidia gradually reduced its stake in ARM by the end of 2024, holding 1.1 million shares valued at $155.8 million; despite the sell-off, Nvidia's 20-year licensing agreement with ARM remains intact, indicating a long-term partnership.
- ARM Earnings Beat Expectations: ARM reported a 26% year-on-year increase in sales to $1.24 billion in its latest earnings report, surpassing analyst expectations and demonstrating strong momentum in AI projects, although its stock fell in after-hours trading, reflecting cautious market sentiment regarding future guidance.
- Positive Market Reaction: Following its Nasdaq debut, ARM's market cap is approximately $135 billion, and Nvidia's stake reduction did not dampen market confidence, as ARM shares rose 1.4% in premarket trading, indicating investor recognition of its long-term growth potential.
- Morgan Stanley Optimistic: Morgan Stanley has an “overweight” rating on ARM with a price target of $135, representing a premium of over 6% from Tuesday's closing price, reflecting a positive outlook on ARM's future performance, particularly in ongoing investments in AI.
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- High Concentration: Christopher Hohn's flagship fund remains one of the most concentrated in the hedge fund universe, with the top five holdings accounting for over 80% of disclosed U.S. equities, reflecting a preference for cash-generative franchises.
- Stability in Big Tech: Hohn's positions in Microsoft and Alphabet Inc. remained largely unchanged in the latest quarter despite price fluctuations, indicating strong confidence in these major tech stocks.
- Increased Financial Exposure: The portfolio is tilting towards fee-based, asset-light financials with the inclusion of payments giant Visa, showcasing Hohn's adaptability to market trends.
- Infrastructure Balance: Holdings in rails and industrials provide a counterbalance to the software-heavy core, ensuring stability in cash flows, which aligns with the fund's long-term investment strategy.
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- S&P 500 Performance: The S&P 500 has been struggling to surpass the 7000 point mark.
- Historical Threshold: This round-number challenge has persisted since the index first tested this level in late October.
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- Dow Jones Pressure: As a component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Microsoft's stock price, currently around $400, significantly influences the index, potentially prompting a stock split before reaching a four-digit price to maintain its standing.
- AI Growth Potential: S&P Global projects a 40% compound annual growth rate for AI from 2024 to 2029, with analysts believing Microsoft will outperform the market in 2026, further increasing the likelihood of a stock split.
- Market Comparison: Despite Microsoft's high stock price, it ranks as the third most expensive among the Dow 30, facing pressure from higher-priced stocks like Goldman Sachs ($900) and Caterpillar ($780), which may delay Microsoft's split decision.
- Investor Watch: While the possibility of a Microsoft stock split is increasing, it is unlikely to occur in the near term; investors should monitor the performance of Goldman Sachs and Caterpillar, as their potential splits could influence Microsoft's timing.
See More
- Partnerships Drive AI Innovation: Nvidia collaborates with Yotta and E2E Networks to utilize its latest Blackwell semiconductors for developing data centers and AI cloud platforms, with Yotta planning to invest over $2 billion to deploy more than 20,000 Blackwell GPUs, significantly enhancing India's AI ecosystem.
- Venture Capital Support: Nvidia is working closely with several venture capital firms, including Peak XV and Nexus Venture Partners, to identify and fund AI startups in India, which has over 4,000 companies participating in its global startup program, thereby boosting tech investment growth.
- Strategic Investments and Government Collaboration: Nvidia's initiatives are part of India's broader “IndiaAI mission,” aimed at strengthening the country's AI capabilities while providing funding for local entrepreneurs, with data center investments expected to reach $200 billion in the coming years, intensifying market competition.
- Positive Market Reaction: Nvidia shares rose 1.94% to $188.55 during premarket trading on Wednesday, reflecting market optimism regarding its expansion in India's AI sector and investor confidence in the company's future growth potential.
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