Newmont Lowers 2026 Production Guidance Despite Strong Q4 Earnings
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 20 2026
0mins
Source: seekingalpha
- Q4 Earnings Beat: Newmont reported a Q4 profit of $1.3 billion, or $1.19 per share, down from $1.4 billion a year earlier, yet adjusted EPS of $2.52 surpassed the $2.05 analyst consensus, indicating strong profitability amid high commodity prices.
- Significant Revenue Growth: Revenues surged over 20% to $6.82 billion in Q4, with free cash flow hitting record highs of $2.8 billion for the quarter and $7.3 billion for the year, reflecting robust cash generation capabilities in a high gold price environment.
- Production Guidance Downgrade: Newmont guided for attributable gold production of approximately 5.3 million ounces in 2026, about 10% below 2025 levels, primarily due to planned mine sequencing affecting output, with gold by-product AISC expected to rise to $1,680 per ounce, potentially pressuring future profitability.
- Strategic Investment Plans: The company plans to invest around $1.4 billion in 2026 to advance projects including Cadia Panel Caves and Tanami Expansion 2 in Australia, as well as the Red Chris Block cave project in Canada, acquired through the $17 billion Newcrest acquisition in 2023, highlighting a commitment to future growth.
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Analyst Views on NEM
Wall Street analysts forecast NEM stock price to rise
14 Analyst Rating
11 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 108.190
Low
89.00
Averages
110.85
High
125.00
Current: 108.190
Low
89.00
Averages
110.85
High
125.00
About NEM
Newmont Corporation is a gold company and a producer of copper, zinc, lead, and silver with operations and/or assets in the Africa, Australia, Latin America & Caribbean, North America, and Papua New Guinea regions. The Company's operations include Brucejack, Red Chris, Penasquito, Merian, Cerro Negro, Yanacocha, Boddington, Tanami, Cadia, Lihir, Ahafo, and NGM. The Brucejack operation includes four mining leases and six core mineral claims which cover 8,169 acres (3,306 hectares) and 337 mineral claims covering 298,795 acres (120,918 hectares). The Red Chris operation includes five mining leases which cover 12,703 acres and 199 mineral claims, encompassing an area of 164,903 acres (66,734 hectares). Penasquito includes 20 mining concessions for operations comprising 113,231 acres (45,823 hectares) and 60 mining concessions for exploration of 107,456 acres (43,486 hectares). The Merian operation includes one right of exploitation encompassing an area of 41,687 acres (16,870 hectares).
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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See More
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- Large Trade Signals: A trader spent over $1 million acquiring thousands of 85-strike puts in the GDX market, indicating concerns about potential declines in gold prices, contrasting sharply with the bullish call activity and highlighting market divergence.
- Market Uncertainty: Although gold is down nearly 20% from its all-time high in January, it has still risen 89% over the past two years, while gold mining stocks have surged 144%, reflecting complex market sentiments amid geopolitical uncertainties and unclear interest rate outlooks.
See More
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- Technical Analysis Tool: Comparing the latest share price to the 200-day moving average can provide valuable insights for investors, helping to assess market trends and price movements effectively.
- ETF Trading Mechanism: Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) trade like stocks, where investors buy and sell 'units' that can be created or destroyed based on demand, impacting the liquidity and market performance of the ETF.
- Inflows and Outflows Monitoring: Weekly monitoring of changes in shares outstanding for ETFs helps identify those experiencing significant inflows or outflows, allowing investors to evaluate the impact on underlying holdings and make more informed decisions.
See More
