MSCI Defers Exclusion Rules, Corporate Bitcoin Holders Rally

Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst

MSCI+0.88%

MSTR+1.64%

BMNR+0.94%

Updated: Jan 07 2026

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MSCI's decision to defer restrictive exclusion rules sparked a relief rally for corporate bitcoin holders. While treasury strategies dominated the headlines, traditional financial institutions continued their march on-chain with new tokenization pilots and ETF filings, even as miners adjusted their balance sheets to weather revenue pressures. Stay up on the crypto news that matters with "Crypto Currents," daily from The Fly. Join us at 2 PM ET for your essential briefing on the fast-moving world of cryptocurrency on FlyCast radio.MSCI DEFERRAL DECISION BOOSTS CRYPTO TREASURY STOCKS: In a significant development for equities with heavy digital asset exposure, index provider MSCIhas decided not to implement its proposal to exclude "Digital Asset Treasury Companies," or DATCOs, from its global indexes during the February 2026 review., the index provider will instead open a broader consultation on the treatment of non-operating companies. The deferral removes a near-term technical risk that could have forced investors to sell shares of companies that use digital assets like bitcoinor etheras primary treasury reserve assets, preserving benchmark-related capital inflows for now.The news provided an immediate lift to the sector, with the largest corporate bitcoin holder, Strategy, surging 6% in after-hours trading on Tuesday. Other firms with similar treasury strategies, including Bitmine Immersion, Sharplink Gaming, and Twenty One Capital, also saw modest gains following the announcement. Additionally, Strategy's perpetual preferred stockreclaimed the $100 par value level for the first time since November. This return to par allows the company to potentially issue more shares through at-the-market offerings to fund further bitcoin purchases.RIOT AND CLEANSPARK ADJUST BITCOIN TREASURIES AMID REVENUE PRESSURE:While treasury firms saw relief, bitcoin miners spent December adjusting their holdings to manage operational realities.that Riot Platformssold $162M worth of bitcoin in December, reducing its treasury to 18,005 BTC. The sale, which marked Riot's largest single-month liquidation to date, coincided with a slump in "hashprice", a term defined as a measure of mining profitability, back toward cycle lows. Riot was not alone in this strategy, as peer miner CleanSparksold 577 BTC in December, generating $51.5M in proceeds. The sales come as miners grapple with compressed margins while continuing to expand capacity, with Riot increasing its deployed hashrate to 38.5 EH/s.JPMORGAN EXPANDS JPM COIN TO CANTON NETWORK:JPMorganis significantly expanding the utility of its blockchain-based payment rail., the bank's digital payments division, Kinexys, is launching JPM Coin on the Canton Network, a layer-1 blockchain designed for institutional finance. This integration allows JPM Coin to function as a deposit token representing U.S. dollars held at the bank, facilitating 24/7 peer-to-peer transfers and settlements. In related developments, Lloyds Banking Group (LYG) completed the U.K.'s first government bond purchase using tokenized deposits, and Barclaysinvested in Ubyx to develop clearing systems for tokenized money,.CORPORATE WEB3 ADOPTION STRATEGIES DIVERGE:Corporate adoption of Web3 technologies remains mixed. Rumble (RUM) shares moved higher after the video platform launched a non-custodial crypto wallet in partnership with Tether.the integration allows creators to receive tips in bitcoin and stablecoins directly. Conversely, Nikehas reportedly sold its NFT studio, RTFKT, ending a high-profile metaverse experiment. The sale follows the shutdown of the subsidiary's operations amid a cooling NFT market.REGULATORY LANDSCAPE SHIFTS WITH ALL REPUBLICAN SEC COMMISSION:The regulatory outlook in Washington is shifting, with the SEC now comprised entirely of Republican commissioners following the departure of Caroline Crenshaw. This "unusual" composition is expected to pave the way for a pro-crypto rulemaking agenda in 2026, potentially removing prior hurdles for the industry..PRICE ACTION:As of time of writing, bitcoin was trading at$91, 237.43, while ether was trading at $3,159.39,.

MSCI

$602.58+Infinity%1D

Analyst Views on MSCI

Wall Street analysts forecast MSCI stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MSCI is 649.00 USD with a low forecast of 570.00 USD and a high forecast of 710.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

9 Analyst Rating

7 Buy

2 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 597.310

Low

570.00

Averages

649.00

High

710.00

Current: 597.310

Low

570.00

Averages

649.00

High

710.00

UBS

Buy

maintain

$700 -> $710

Al Analysis

2025-10-29

Reason

UBS

Price Target

$700 -> $710

Al Analysis

2025-10-29

maintain

Buy

Reason

UBS raised the firm's price target on MSCI to $710 from $700 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares.

Barclays

Manav Patnaik

Overweight

maintain

$650 -> $660

2025-10-29

Reason

Barclays

Manav Patnaik

Price Target

$650 -> $660

2025-10-29

maintain

Overweight

Reason

Barclays analyst Manav Patnaik raised the firm's price target on MSCI to $660 from $650 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares following the earnings report. The company is "turning the corner" with better net new sales, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

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Clear Street

Hold

maintain

$555 -> $601

2025-10-29

Reason

Clear Street

Price Target

$555 -> $601

2025-10-29

maintain

Hold

Reason

Clear Street raised the firm's price target on MSCI to $601 from $555 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. The company reported better than expected Q3 earnings, driven by lower tax rate, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm believes the board's $3B share buyback authorization confirms long term confidence. Clear Street attributes the post-earnings rally in MSCI shares to investors having a constructive view on the company's improving net new subscriber sales and upbeat messaging on artificial intelligence.

Wells Fargo

Equal Weight

maintain

$533 -> $570

2025-10-29

Reason

Wells Fargo

Price Target

$533 -> $570

2025-10-29

maintain

Equal Weight

Reason

Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on MSCI to $570 from $533 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm notes MSCI delivered a Q3 beat, driven by strength in Index and Analytics. Management is bullish on the AI opportunity, viewing it as a lever to drive faster product innovation and internal cost efficiencies, which should free up capital for reinvestment.

About MSCI

MSCI Inc. (MSCI) is a provider of critical decision support tools and solutions for the global investment community. The Company operates through four segments: Index, Analytics, ESG and Climate, and All Other-Private Assets. The Index segment offers products, such as MSCI Global Equity Indexes, ESG and Climate Indexes, Factor Indexes, Thematic Indexes, Client-Designed Indexes, Fixed Income Indexes and Real Assets Indexes. The Analytics segment offers risk management, performance attribution and portfolio management content, applications and services. Its ESG and Climate segment offerings include MSCI ESG Ratings, MSCI ESG Business Involvement Screening Research, and MSCI Climate Solutions. The Company's All Other-Private Assets segment comprises the Real Assets segment and Private Capital Solutions segment. The Real Assets segment offers data, benchmarks, return-analytics, climate assessments and market insights for tangible assets such as real estate and infrastructure.

About the author

Emily J. Thompson

Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.