Middle East Aluminum Prices Surge Amid Supply Disruption
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Mar 18 2026
0mins
Should l Buy FCX?
Source: CNBC
- Aluminum Price Surge: The war between the U.S. and Israel against Iran has led to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, causing aluminum prices to jump by 10% since the conflict began on February 28, currently hovering near a four-year high of $3,370, highlighting the metal's critical role in the global economy.
- Production Cuts Impact: Bahrain's Alba, the world's largest smelter, has reduced its annual output by 19% from 1.6 million tons, exacerbating fears of a global aluminum shortage, with prices potentially approaching $4,000 per ton due to lower stock levels.
- Demand and Supply Outlook: Analysts from CRU Group warn that a prolonged conflict could drastically alter the market outlook for aluminum, impacting global supply and potentially leading to decreased demand, which would affect price trajectories.
- China's Role: As the largest aluminum producer, China maintains production at 45.5 million tons per year, and if the government decides to restart idle smelters, it could flood the market with aluminum, putting downward pressure on current high prices.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Stop guessing "Should I Buy FCX?" and start using high-conviction signals backed by rigorous historical data.
Sign up today to access powerful investing tools and make smarter, data-driven decisions.
Analyst Views on FCX
Wall Street analysts forecast FCX stock price to fall
15 Analyst Rating
13 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 61.200
Low
46.00
Averages
58.79
High
70.00
Current: 61.200
Low
46.00
Averages
58.79
High
70.00
About FCX
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. is a metals company. The Company operates assets with reserves of copper, gold and molybdenum. Its portfolio of assets includes the Grasberg minerals district in Indonesia, which is a copper and gold deposit; and operations in the United States, including the large-scale Morenci minerals district in North America and the Cerro Verde operation in South America. Its segments include Cerro Verde copper mine, Indonesia operations and United States Rod & Refining operations. It produces copper concentrate, cathode and continuous cast copper rod. Its copper ore from mines is processed by smelting and refining or by solution extraction and electrowinning (SX/EW). It produces copper cathodes at an electrolytic refinery located in El Paso, Texas. The SX/EW cathode is produced from the Morenci, Bagdad, Safford, Sierrita, Miami, Chino and Tyrone mines in the United States, and from the Cerro Verde and El Abra mines in South America.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Goldman Sachs Initiates Buy Rating on FCX
- Market Reaction: FCX's stock fell by 0.9% following President Trump's speech, indicating market concerns over the Middle East situation, which led to declines in copper and other base metal prices, negatively impacting short-term profit expectations for FCX.
- Rating Upgrade: Goldman Sachs initiated coverage on FCX with a Buy rating and a $70 price target, believing the company offers best-in-class exposure to structural deficits in the copper market, supplemented by gold exposure, suggesting that long-term commodity prices will continue to rise, enhancing profitability.
- Production Inflection Point: Analysts noted that FCX's production volumes are at an inflection point, with the Grasberg mine restart and rising copper prices expected to further enhance profitability in a high-price environment, a view widely accepted by the market.
- Cash Flow Expectations: Analysts anticipate a significantly improved operating profile for FCX, leading to higher free cash flow generation, which will enhance the company's balance sheet flexibility and, based on historical capital allocation, increase returns to shareholders while allocating substantial capital to growth initiatives.
See More
US Stocks Plummet as Oil Prices Surge
- Oil Price Surge: Crude oil prices soared over 13% as President Trump took a tougher stance on Iran, reaching a 3.5-week high, which not only heightened inflation fears but also pushed bond yields higher, with the 10-year T-note yield rising by 2 basis points to 4.34%.
- Unemployment Claims Drop: Weekly initial unemployment claims unexpectedly fell by 9,000 to 202,000, indicating a stronger labor market than the anticipated increase to 212,000, which could provide support for the stock market amid rising inflation concerns.
- Global Market Decline: Overseas stock markets are lower, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down 2.25%, China's Shanghai Composite down 0.74%, and Japan's Nikkei 225 sharply falling 2.38% from a two-week high, reflecting global economic uncertainty and investor caution.
- Airline Stocks Plummet: Airline stocks are sharply lower as crude oil prices surged over 10%, raising fuel costs; United Airlines and American Airlines Group both fell more than 6%, highlighting the direct impact of rising oil prices on airline profitability.
See More
Impact of War on Metal Markets
- Aluminum Surge: Since the onset of the war, aluminum futures have surged nearly 12%, indicating strong market demand that may reflect supply chain tensions and investor optimism about future needs.
- Precious Metals Decline: In stark contrast to aluminum, gold futures have fallen about 9%, while silver, palladium, and platinum futures have dropped between 17% and 19%, suggesting a waning interest in safe-haven assets and potential for increased market volatility.
- Tariff Impact: One year after Trump's tariff announcement, Walmart's stock has risen nearly 40%, and Tesla's shares have soared about 35%, indicating that some companies have successfully adapted to policy changes, while Best Buy's 15% decline highlights the varied impacts across different firms.
- Jobless Claims Expectations: Initial jobless claims are expected to reach 212,000, with a trade deficit forecast of $62 billion, up from last month's $54.46 billion, reflecting the complexities of economic recovery and market focus on upcoming economic data.
See More
US Stocks Close Higher Amid Optimism Over Middle East Conflict Resolution
- Market Rally: The S&P 500 rose by 0.72%, the Dow Jones increased by 0.48%, and the Nasdaq 100 climbed by 1.18%, reflecting growing investor optimism regarding a potential resolution to the Middle East conflict, which has bolstered market confidence.
- Strong Economic Data: The US ADP employment change for March increased by 62,000, surpassing expectations of 40,000, while February retail sales rose by 0.6% month-over-month, indicating robust economic recovery that could influence Federal Reserve policy decisions.
- Interest Rate Expectations: Despite positive economic indicators, hawkish comments from St. Louis Fed President raised concerns about inflation and employment, leading to a mere 1% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike at the upcoming April FOMC meeting, reflecting cautious market sentiment.
- Divergent Stock Performances: Target Hospitality surged over 36% after securing a multi-year contract worth over $550 million, while Nike fell more than 15% due to revenue forecasts indicating a decline, highlighting the market's varied outlook on different companies' futures.
See More
US Stocks Rise on Optimism Over Middle East Conflict Resolution
- Market Rally: The S&P 500 Index rose by 0.97%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average by 0.86%, and the Nasdaq 100 by 1.45%, reflecting growing investor confidence amid optimism that the Middle East conflict may soon conclude, which could stabilize global markets.
- Strong Economic Data: The US ADP employment change for March increased by 62,000, surpassing expectations of 40,000, while February retail sales rose by 0.6% month-over-month, indicating robust economic recovery that may influence Federal Reserve policy decisions.
- Interest Rate Outlook: Despite a mere 1% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike at the upcoming FOMC meeting, hawkish comments from St. Louis Fed President raised concerns about inflation and employment risks, potentially affecting investor sentiment and market dynamics.
- Divergent Stock Performances: Target Hospitality surged by over 37% after securing a multi-year contract worth over $550 million, while Nike fell by more than 13% due to revenue forecasts indicating a decline, highlighting varied market reactions to company-specific news.
See More
US Stocks Rise on Optimism Over Middle East Conflict Resolution
- Market Optimism: The S&P 500 index rose by 0.52%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average by 0.43%, and the Nasdaq 100 by 0.68%, reflecting investor optimism regarding a potential resolution to the Middle East conflict, which has fueled a continuation of Tuesday's strong rally.
- Strong Economic Data: The US ADP employment change for March increased by 62,000, surpassing expectations of 40,000, while February retail sales rose by 0.6% month-over-month, exceeding the anticipated 0.5%, bolstering market confidence in economic recovery and potentially influencing future monetary policy.
- Interest Rate Expectations: Despite hawkish comments from the St. Louis Fed President putting pressure on stocks, the market is still pricing in only a 1% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike at the upcoming FOMC meeting on April 28-29, indicating a cautious optimism regarding economic growth.
- Notable Stock Performances: Target Hospitality's stock surged over 28% after securing a multi-year contract worth over $550 million, while nCino's forecast of $569 million to $573 million in subscription revenue for 2027 exceeded market expectations, highlighting strong demand in the tech and service sectors.
See More
Goldman Sachs Initiates Buy Rating on FCX
- Market Reaction: FCX's stock fell by 0.9% following President Trump's speech, indicating market concerns over the Middle East situation, which led to declines in copper and other base metal prices, negatively impacting short-term profit expectations for FCX.
- Rating Upgrade: Goldman Sachs initiated coverage on FCX with a Buy rating and a $70 price target, believing the company offers best-in-class exposure to structural deficits in the copper market, supplemented by gold exposure, suggesting that long-term commodity prices will continue to rise, enhancing profitability.
- Production Inflection Point: Analysts noted that FCX's production volumes are at an inflection point, with the Grasberg mine restart and rising copper prices expected to further enhance profitability in a high-price environment, a view widely accepted by the market.
- Cash Flow Expectations: Analysts anticipate a significantly improved operating profile for FCX, leading to higher free cash flow generation, which will enhance the company's balance sheet flexibility and, based on historical capital allocation, increase returns to shareholders while allocating substantial capital to growth initiatives.
See More
US Stocks Plummet as Oil Prices Surge
- Oil Price Surge: Crude oil prices soared over 13% as President Trump took a tougher stance on Iran, reaching a 3.5-week high, which not only heightened inflation fears but also pushed bond yields higher, with the 10-year T-note yield rising by 2 basis points to 4.34%.
- Unemployment Claims Drop: Weekly initial unemployment claims unexpectedly fell by 9,000 to 202,000, indicating a stronger labor market than the anticipated increase to 212,000, which could provide support for the stock market amid rising inflation concerns.
- Global Market Decline: Overseas stock markets are lower, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down 2.25%, China's Shanghai Composite down 0.74%, and Japan's Nikkei 225 sharply falling 2.38% from a two-week high, reflecting global economic uncertainty and investor caution.
- Airline Stocks Plummet: Airline stocks are sharply lower as crude oil prices surged over 10%, raising fuel costs; United Airlines and American Airlines Group both fell more than 6%, highlighting the direct impact of rising oil prices on airline profitability.
See More
Impact of War on Metal Markets
- Aluminum Surge: Since the onset of the war, aluminum futures have surged nearly 12%, indicating strong market demand that may reflect supply chain tensions and investor optimism about future needs.
- Precious Metals Decline: In stark contrast to aluminum, gold futures have fallen about 9%, while silver, palladium, and platinum futures have dropped between 17% and 19%, suggesting a waning interest in safe-haven assets and potential for increased market volatility.
- Tariff Impact: One year after Trump's tariff announcement, Walmart's stock has risen nearly 40%, and Tesla's shares have soared about 35%, indicating that some companies have successfully adapted to policy changes, while Best Buy's 15% decline highlights the varied impacts across different firms.
- Jobless Claims Expectations: Initial jobless claims are expected to reach 212,000, with a trade deficit forecast of $62 billion, up from last month's $54.46 billion, reflecting the complexities of economic recovery and market focus on upcoming economic data.
See More
US Stocks Close Higher Amid Optimism Over Middle East Conflict Resolution
- Market Rally: The S&P 500 rose by 0.72%, the Dow Jones increased by 0.48%, and the Nasdaq 100 climbed by 1.18%, reflecting growing investor optimism regarding a potential resolution to the Middle East conflict, which has bolstered market confidence.
- Strong Economic Data: The US ADP employment change for March increased by 62,000, surpassing expectations of 40,000, while February retail sales rose by 0.6% month-over-month, indicating robust economic recovery that could influence Federal Reserve policy decisions.
- Interest Rate Expectations: Despite positive economic indicators, hawkish comments from St. Louis Fed President raised concerns about inflation and employment, leading to a mere 1% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike at the upcoming April FOMC meeting, reflecting cautious market sentiment.
- Divergent Stock Performances: Target Hospitality surged over 36% after securing a multi-year contract worth over $550 million, while Nike fell more than 15% due to revenue forecasts indicating a decline, highlighting the market's varied outlook on different companies' futures.
See More
US Stocks Rise on Optimism Over Middle East Conflict Resolution
- Market Rally: The S&P 500 Index rose by 0.97%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average by 0.86%, and the Nasdaq 100 by 1.45%, reflecting growing investor confidence amid optimism that the Middle East conflict may soon conclude, which could stabilize global markets.
- Strong Economic Data: The US ADP employment change for March increased by 62,000, surpassing expectations of 40,000, while February retail sales rose by 0.6% month-over-month, indicating robust economic recovery that may influence Federal Reserve policy decisions.
- Interest Rate Outlook: Despite a mere 1% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike at the upcoming FOMC meeting, hawkish comments from St. Louis Fed President raised concerns about inflation and employment risks, potentially affecting investor sentiment and market dynamics.
- Divergent Stock Performances: Target Hospitality surged by over 37% after securing a multi-year contract worth over $550 million, while Nike fell by more than 13% due to revenue forecasts indicating a decline, highlighting varied market reactions to company-specific news.
See More
US Stocks Rise on Optimism Over Middle East Conflict Resolution
- Market Optimism: The S&P 500 index rose by 0.52%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average by 0.43%, and the Nasdaq 100 by 0.68%, reflecting investor optimism regarding a potential resolution to the Middle East conflict, which has fueled a continuation of Tuesday's strong rally.
- Strong Economic Data: The US ADP employment change for March increased by 62,000, surpassing expectations of 40,000, while February retail sales rose by 0.6% month-over-month, exceeding the anticipated 0.5%, bolstering market confidence in economic recovery and potentially influencing future monetary policy.
- Interest Rate Expectations: Despite hawkish comments from the St. Louis Fed President putting pressure on stocks, the market is still pricing in only a 1% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike at the upcoming FOMC meeting on April 28-29, indicating a cautious optimism regarding economic growth.
- Notable Stock Performances: Target Hospitality's stock surged over 28% after securing a multi-year contract worth over $550 million, while nCino's forecast of $569 million to $573 million in subscription revenue for 2027 exceeded market expectations, highlighting strong demand in the tech and service sectors.
See More
