Major US Indices Close Higher as Markets Price in Fed Rate Cut This Month
The major averages closed broadly higher as markets are now pricing in a high probability of a Fed rate cut this month. The current optimism follows a choppy start to the week, which saw bond yields spike and crypto slump, but those pressures have eased for now. Concerns about AI valuations and investment are also reflected in the markets, however, as Microsoft was slipping after The Information said the company was lowering software sales quotas linked to AI, though Microsoft denied the report.Looking to commodities, gold prices edged higher as the "safe haven" asset looks to hit the $4,300 threshold one again. Oil prices were also higher following yesterday's API crude numbers and this morning's DOE data.Get caught up quickly on the top news and calls moving stocks with these five Top Five lists.1. STOCK NEWS:Microsofthas cut targets for salespeople on certain AI products,, though the company told CNBC it has not lowered sales targetsAnthropic has picked a law firm to start work on its IPO,Marvellreportedand agreed to acquire Celestial AI in a roughly $3.25B dealMacy'sprovided areport for Q3American Eaglereportedearnings and revenue2. WALL STREET CALLS:AreteUberwith autonomous vehicles risk seen as overdoneVertexto Overweight at Morgan StanleyWayfairto Hold at JefferiesJPMorganWendy'spending more defined strategyOraclewith an Overweight at Wells Fargo3. AROUND THE WEB:Teslaregistrations in Europe in November fell 36.3% excluding Norway,Appledesign executive Alan Dye is leaving the company for Meta,Eli Lillywill delay resuming U.K. investments until it observes changes in drug approvals, despite a recent U.S.-U.K. agreement to raise NHS drug spending and ease approval for costly medicines,Saudi Arabia's government investment fund, the Public Investment Fund, PIF, is set to take nearly full ownership of Electronic Arts,Netflix'sproposed acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery'sstudios and streaming unit would likely lower the costs for consumers by bundling Netflix and HBO Max,4. MOVERS:Capricor Therapeuticsincreases after announcing Phase 3 HOPE-3 studyPharvarisgains in New York after announcing its RAPIDe-3 studySpirit AeroSystemshigher after the FTC said Boeingwill have to divestto resolve antitrust concernsAlexandria Real Estatelower afterPure Storageand GitLabfall after5. EARNINGS/GUIDANCE:Sprinklr, with EPS and revenue beating consensusEnbridgeprovidedand FY26Thor Industries, with CEO Bob Martin commenting, "The quarter finished stronger than we expected"Dollar Treeand raised its guidance for FY25PayPalINDEXES:The Dow rose 408.44, or 0.86%, to 47,882.90, the Nasdaq gained 40.42, or 0.17%, to 23,454.09, and the S&P 500 advanced 20.35, or 0.30%, to 6,849.72.
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- Strong Revenue Growth: In Q4 2025, Uber reported a 20% year-over-year revenue increase, driven by a 22% surge in gross bookings, showcasing robust performance in both mobility and delivery segments, with operating income projected to rise at a 31% compound annual growth rate by 2028.
- Clear Competitive Advantages: As a category creator, Uber's brand has become synonymous with ride-hailing, demonstrating significant consumer mindshare, while its network effect enhances service quality, leading to improved user experiences and solidifying its market position.
- Large User Base: Uber completed 3.8 billion trips in Q4, boasting 9.7 million active drivers and couriers, where the growing user base not only enhances service quality but also increases market share and customer loyalty.
- Attractive Valuation: With a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 21.1, below the S&P 500 index, and optimistic management commentary, it indicates a prime opportunity for investors to buy this growth stock, highlighting its substantial future potential.
- Portfolio Value Shift: Pershing Square Capital Management, led by Bill Ackman, reported a Q4 2025 portfolio valued at approximately $15.53 billion, indicating a significant strategic shift towards the 'Magnificent Seven' compared to Q4 2024.
- New Equity Stakes: In Q4 2025, the fund added substantial positions in Uber, Amazon, and Meta, totaling over 42.49 million shares, reflecting a strong confidence in tech stocks, while also acquiring 15.2 million shares in Hertz, indicating optimism in the rental car sector.
- Reductions and Exits: The fund completely exited positions in Chipotle, Nike, and Canadian Pacific, while reducing stakes in Alphabet Class A and Hilton by 83% and 44%, respectively, suggesting a cautious outlook on these companies' futures.
- Performance Overview: Despite maintaining a highly concentrated portfolio of just 11 positions, the fund experienced a 0.88% decline over the past year, significantly underperforming the S&P 500's 11.7% return, highlighting the risks and challenges of its investment strategy.
- Market Misunderstanding: Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong highlighted that Wall Street's perception of cryptocurrency is flawed, as some traditional finance professionals are inherently skeptical due to their careers being rooted in the conventional financial system, which may lead to misunderstandings about Coinbase and its market position.
- Financial Performance: Coinbase reported fourth-quarter revenue of $1.78 billion for 2025, missing analyst estimates, yet achieved an EPS of $0.66, surpassing forecasts, with full-year revenue reaching $7.2 billion, reflecting a 9% year-over-year growth that demonstrates the company's resilience in revenue generation.
- Analyst Ratings: The consensus price target for Coinbase stands at $314.94, with 29 analysts providing insights, while the average target price of $194 suggests a potential upside of approximately 17.23%, indicating a cautiously optimistic outlook for the company's future performance.
- Competitive Landscape: Armstrong accused banks of stifling competition and urged lawmakers to create a level playing field, emphasizing the need for better policy support for the cryptocurrency sector to foster innovation and market development.
- Portfolio Adjustment: Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund (PIF) revealed in its Q4 13F filing that it no longer holds 11,414,680 shares of Take-Two (TTWO), which previously constituted 15% of its assets, indicating a strategic reassessment of its investment approach.
- Transfer to Subsidiary: The TTWO shares have been transferred to PIF's subsidiary, Savvy Games Group, which owns stakes in several video game companies including Niantic, Embracer, and Scopely, highlighting PIF's strategic positioning in the gaming sector.
- Concentration of Major Investments: At the end of Q4, PIF's assets were heavily weighted in Uber, EA, and Lucid, reflecting its investment preferences in technology and entertainment sectors, which may influence future investment decisions.
- Market Outlook Impact: As one of the largest shareholders of Take-Two, the timing of the share transfer coincides with the highly anticipated release of 'GTA 6', which could significantly impact its future investment returns.
- New Investment Dynamics: In Q4, Pershing Square Capital established a new position of 2,673,569 shares in Meta Platforms, reflecting confidence in the company's growth potential, particularly in AI applications.
- Position Changes: The fund also increased its stake in Amazon by 65% while reducing exposure to Alphabet, indicating a strategic reassessment of tech stocks and a shift in investment focus.
- Positive Market Outlook: Pershing Square's investment presentation highlighted that Meta's stock is undervalued, emphasizing its leadership in digital advertising and AI integration as key drivers for long-term growth, attracting more investor interest.
- Growing User Base: With 3.5 billion daily active users, Meta's strong user base and experienced leadership team provide robust support for its future market performance, further boosting investor confidence.
- Amazon Stake Increase: Ackman's Pershing Square expanded its Amazon stake by over $865 million in Q4 2025, a 65% increase, bringing the total value above $2.2 billion, reflecting confidence in Amazon's growth potential.
- Stock Price Volatility: Despite a 5% rise in Amazon's stock in Q4 2025, it has since fallen over 12% in Q1 2026, indicating market concerns about its future performance, resulting in a market cap loss exceeding $450 billion.
- Analyst Ratings Optimistic: The majority of analysts polled by LSEG maintain buy ratings on Amazon, with an average price target suggesting a potential rebound of over 38% in the next year, providing investors with a promising outlook.
- Portfolio Adjustments: In addition to increasing his Amazon stake, Ackman announced a stake in Meta valued at over $1.7 billion, while cutting his Alphabet holding by more than 38% and completely exiting his investment in Chipotle, demonstrating flexibility in his investment strategy.











