Lilly's Stock Has Tripled Due to Weight-Loss Medications: Here's Why It Appears Undervalued.
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Dec 19 2025
0mins
Source: Barron's
Growth Potential of Obesity Meds: The potential for growth in the obesity medication market is recognized, but there may be more to it than currently understood.
Future Developments: Two significant developments anticipated in 2026 could accelerate market growth beyond investor expectations.
Investor Predictions: Current investor predictions may not fully account for the rapid advancements and changes in the obesity medication landscape.
Market Dynamics: The evolving dynamics in the obesity treatment sector suggest a promising outlook for the industry in the coming years.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Stop guessing "Should I Buy NVO?" and start using high-conviction signals backed by rigorous historical data.
Sign up today to access powerful investing tools and make smarter, data-driven decisions.
Analyst Views on NVO
Wall Street analysts forecast NVO stock price to rise
8 Analyst Rating
4 Buy
3 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 38.020
Low
42.00
Averages
54.67
High
70.00
Current: 38.020
Low
42.00
Averages
54.67
High
70.00
About NVO
Novo Nordisk A/S is a global healthcare company engaged in diabetes care. The Company is also engaged in the discovery, development, manufacturing and marketing of pharmaceutical products. The Company operates through two business segments: diabetes and obesity care, and biopharmaceuticals. The Company's diabetes and obesity care segment covers insulin, GLP-1, other protein-related products, such as glucagon, protein-related delivery systems and needles, and oral anti-diabetic drugs. The Company's biopharmaceuticals segment covers the therapy areas of hemophilia care, growth hormone therapy and hormone replacement therapy. The Company also offers Saxenda product to treat obesity. It offers a range of products, including NovoLog/NovoRapid; NovoLog Mix/NovoMix; Prandin/NovoNorm; NovoSeven; Norditropin, and Vagifem. As of December 31, 2016, it marketed its products in over 180 countries. Its regional structure consists of two commercial units: North America and International Operations.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Novo Holdings Sees Asset Value Plummet Amid Novo Nordisk Decline
- Asset Management Decline: Novo Holdings reported a significant drop in assets under management from DKK 1,060B (€142B) in 2024 to DKK 694B (€93B) in 2025, reflecting a nearly one-third decrease primarily due to the sharp decline in Novo Nordisk's stock price.
- Impact of Buyback Suspension: The decision by Novo Nordisk to halt share buybacks, coupled with the weakening of the U.S. dollar against the Danish krone, further pressured returns, resulting in a drop in investment returns to about 9% in 2025 from nearly 15% in 2024.
- Portfolio Diversification: Novo Holdings increased its exposure to non-health investments to 48% of its portfolio in 2025, up from 41% in 2024, indicating a strategic shift towards diversification to mitigate market volatility.
- Sales Slowdown Challenges: Novo Nordisk is experiencing a sales slowdown, with its stock dropping approximately 48% in 2025 and another ~24% in 2026, primarily due to intensified competition and cheaper copycat treatments, raising concerns about future growth prospects.
See More
Hims & Hers Soars 57% After Settling Dispute with Novo Nordisk
- Stock Surge: Hims & Hers (HIMS) experienced a remarkable ~57% increase this week, marking its best weekly performance ever, primarily due to settling a months-long dispute with Novo Nordisk (NVO), which is expected to significantly enhance the company's market performance.
- Partnership Resumption: The agreement allows HIMS to sell Novo Nordisk's brand-name weight-loss drugs on its platform, signaling a restoration of relations that is anticipated to provide new revenue streams and strengthen HIMS's position in the competitive health tech market.
- Analyst Upgrades: Multiple analysts upgraded HIMS, including Citi, which raised its rating from Sell to Neutral, citing that the agreement significantly derisks the company's outlook, indicating increased market confidence in HIMS's future development.
- Mixed Market Reactions: While HIMS remains rated as Hold on Wall Street, Seeking Alpha's Quant System rates it as a Strong Sell, reflecting divergent views in the market regarding the company's prospects, necessitating close monitoring of its future performance.
See More
MarketBeat Weekly Recap – March 9 to March 13
Market Resilience Amid Uncertainty: Despite ongoing volatility, stock markets have shown resilience as investors navigate uncertainties related to oil prices and geopolitical conflicts, with economic indicators remaining generally favorable.
Earnings Season Insights: The current earnings season has provided supportive data for a resilient economy, with companies reporting solid earnings, particularly in sectors like energy and technology, which are adapting to market conditions.
Investment Strategies in Volatile Times: Analysts suggest that investors should focus on blue-chip stocks and companies with strong fundamentals, while also considering opportunities in sectors like biotechnology and renewable energy.
Emerging Trends in Mergers and Acquisitions: The market is witnessing significant mergers and acquisitions, particularly in the healthcare and technology sectors, which could reshape industry dynamics and present new investment opportunities.
See More
Eli Lilly's Dominance in Weight Loss Market
- Market Leadership: Eli Lilly's weight loss drug Zepbound became the best-selling drug globally in 2025, generating $65.2 billion in revenue, a 45% year-over-year increase, demonstrating its strong performance in the rapidly growing weight loss market and solidifying the company's leadership position.
- Emerging Competitors: Regeneron's olatorepatide achieved a 19% mean weight loss in a phase 3 study conducted in China, closely rivaling Zepbound's 20.2%, indicating its potential as a serious competitor in the weight loss drug market that could challenge Eli Lilly.
- New Drug Development Progress: Eli Lilly's oral GLP-1 drug forglipron is expected to launch in the second quarter, and with promising phase 3 results in diabetes and obesity, it could capture a leading share of the oral weight loss market, further enhancing the company's competitive edge.
- Technological Investment and Future Outlook: Eli Lilly is heavily investing in artificial intelligence to accelerate the drug discovery process, a strategy that not only enhances R&D efficiency but could also yield significant financial returns in the future, ensuring its continued dominance in the weight loss market.
See More
Three Undervalued Stocks to Consider
- Uber Technologies Outlook: Uber Technologies (UBER) shares are currently priced at only 17 times the projected per-share profit of $4.33, and despite facing regulatory pressures and competition from autonomous driving technology, the company is expected to achieve double-digit revenue growth in the future, presenting a potential value opportunity for investors.
- Progressive Insurance Challenges: Progressive (PGR) shares have fallen 28% since last May, and while revenue growth of 7% is anticipated this year, earnings per share are expected to decline from $18.25 last year to $16.12, yet its forward P/E ratio is below 13, with an attractive dividend yield of 6.6%, appealing to income-seeking investors.
- Novo Nordisk Market Opportunities: Novo Nordisk (NVO) is currently trading at less than 11 times earnings, and despite facing competitive pressures and declining market share, the success of its weight-loss drug Wegovy still provides potential catalysts such as updates on CagriSema clinical trials that could reignite investor interest.
- Future Growth Potential: Although Novo Nordisk's stock has dropped over 70% from its mid-2024 peak, the upcoming regulatory approvals and clinical progress of new drugs may sustain optimism about its future growth potential, attracting more investor attention.
See More
Eli Lilly's Leadership in Weight Loss Market
- Market Leadership: Eli Lilly's weight-loss drug Zepbound became the best-selling drug globally in 2025, generating $65.2 billion in revenue, a 45% year-over-year increase, showcasing its strong competitive position in the rapidly growing weight loss market.
- Competitive Threats: Despite Eli Lilly's dominance, competitors like Regeneron, Roche, and Novo Nordisk have shown promising results in China, achieving mean weight losses of 19%, 22.5%, and 19.7% respectively, which could pose future challenges to Zepbound.
- New Product Progress: Eli Lilly's oral GLP-1 drug, forglipron, is expected to launch in Q2, and with strong phase 3 results in diabetes and obesity, it is poised to capture a leading share of the oral weight-loss market, further solidifying its market position.
- Technology Investment: Eli Lilly is heavily investing in artificial intelligence to accelerate drug discovery, a strategy that not only enhances R&D efficiency but could also yield significant financial returns in the future, ensuring its sustained advantage in the weight loss market.
See More
Novo Holdings Sees Asset Value Plummet Amid Novo Nordisk Decline
- Asset Management Decline: Novo Holdings reported a significant drop in assets under management from DKK 1,060B (€142B) in 2024 to DKK 694B (€93B) in 2025, reflecting a nearly one-third decrease primarily due to the sharp decline in Novo Nordisk's stock price.
- Impact of Buyback Suspension: The decision by Novo Nordisk to halt share buybacks, coupled with the weakening of the U.S. dollar against the Danish krone, further pressured returns, resulting in a drop in investment returns to about 9% in 2025 from nearly 15% in 2024.
- Portfolio Diversification: Novo Holdings increased its exposure to non-health investments to 48% of its portfolio in 2025, up from 41% in 2024, indicating a strategic shift towards diversification to mitigate market volatility.
- Sales Slowdown Challenges: Novo Nordisk is experiencing a sales slowdown, with its stock dropping approximately 48% in 2025 and another ~24% in 2026, primarily due to intensified competition and cheaper copycat treatments, raising concerns about future growth prospects.
See More
Hims & Hers Soars 57% After Settling Dispute with Novo Nordisk
- Stock Surge: Hims & Hers (HIMS) experienced a remarkable ~57% increase this week, marking its best weekly performance ever, primarily due to settling a months-long dispute with Novo Nordisk (NVO), which is expected to significantly enhance the company's market performance.
- Partnership Resumption: The agreement allows HIMS to sell Novo Nordisk's brand-name weight-loss drugs on its platform, signaling a restoration of relations that is anticipated to provide new revenue streams and strengthen HIMS's position in the competitive health tech market.
- Analyst Upgrades: Multiple analysts upgraded HIMS, including Citi, which raised its rating from Sell to Neutral, citing that the agreement significantly derisks the company's outlook, indicating increased market confidence in HIMS's future development.
- Mixed Market Reactions: While HIMS remains rated as Hold on Wall Street, Seeking Alpha's Quant System rates it as a Strong Sell, reflecting divergent views in the market regarding the company's prospects, necessitating close monitoring of its future performance.
See More
MarketBeat Weekly Recap – March 9 to March 13
Market Resilience Amid Uncertainty: Despite ongoing volatility, stock markets have shown resilience as investors navigate uncertainties related to oil prices and geopolitical conflicts, with economic indicators remaining generally favorable.
Earnings Season Insights: The current earnings season has provided supportive data for a resilient economy, with companies reporting solid earnings, particularly in sectors like energy and technology, which are adapting to market conditions.
Investment Strategies in Volatile Times: Analysts suggest that investors should focus on blue-chip stocks and companies with strong fundamentals, while also considering opportunities in sectors like biotechnology and renewable energy.
Emerging Trends in Mergers and Acquisitions: The market is witnessing significant mergers and acquisitions, particularly in the healthcare and technology sectors, which could reshape industry dynamics and present new investment opportunities.
See More
Eli Lilly's Dominance in Weight Loss Market
- Market Leadership: Eli Lilly's weight loss drug Zepbound became the best-selling drug globally in 2025, generating $65.2 billion in revenue, a 45% year-over-year increase, demonstrating its strong performance in the rapidly growing weight loss market and solidifying the company's leadership position.
- Emerging Competitors: Regeneron's olatorepatide achieved a 19% mean weight loss in a phase 3 study conducted in China, closely rivaling Zepbound's 20.2%, indicating its potential as a serious competitor in the weight loss drug market that could challenge Eli Lilly.
- New Drug Development Progress: Eli Lilly's oral GLP-1 drug forglipron is expected to launch in the second quarter, and with promising phase 3 results in diabetes and obesity, it could capture a leading share of the oral weight loss market, further enhancing the company's competitive edge.
- Technological Investment and Future Outlook: Eli Lilly is heavily investing in artificial intelligence to accelerate the drug discovery process, a strategy that not only enhances R&D efficiency but could also yield significant financial returns in the future, ensuring its continued dominance in the weight loss market.
See More
Three Undervalued Stocks to Consider
- Uber Technologies Outlook: Uber Technologies (UBER) shares are currently priced at only 17 times the projected per-share profit of $4.33, and despite facing regulatory pressures and competition from autonomous driving technology, the company is expected to achieve double-digit revenue growth in the future, presenting a potential value opportunity for investors.
- Progressive Insurance Challenges: Progressive (PGR) shares have fallen 28% since last May, and while revenue growth of 7% is anticipated this year, earnings per share are expected to decline from $18.25 last year to $16.12, yet its forward P/E ratio is below 13, with an attractive dividend yield of 6.6%, appealing to income-seeking investors.
- Novo Nordisk Market Opportunities: Novo Nordisk (NVO) is currently trading at less than 11 times earnings, and despite facing competitive pressures and declining market share, the success of its weight-loss drug Wegovy still provides potential catalysts such as updates on CagriSema clinical trials that could reignite investor interest.
- Future Growth Potential: Although Novo Nordisk's stock has dropped over 70% from its mid-2024 peak, the upcoming regulatory approvals and clinical progress of new drugs may sustain optimism about its future growth potential, attracting more investor attention.
See More
Eli Lilly's Leadership in Weight Loss Market
- Market Leadership: Eli Lilly's weight-loss drug Zepbound became the best-selling drug globally in 2025, generating $65.2 billion in revenue, a 45% year-over-year increase, showcasing its strong competitive position in the rapidly growing weight loss market.
- Competitive Threats: Despite Eli Lilly's dominance, competitors like Regeneron, Roche, and Novo Nordisk have shown promising results in China, achieving mean weight losses of 19%, 22.5%, and 19.7% respectively, which could pose future challenges to Zepbound.
- New Product Progress: Eli Lilly's oral GLP-1 drug, forglipron, is expected to launch in Q2, and with strong phase 3 results in diabetes and obesity, it is poised to capture a leading share of the oral weight-loss market, further solidifying its market position.
- Technology Investment: Eli Lilly is heavily investing in artificial intelligence to accelerate drug discovery, a strategy that not only enhances R&D efficiency but could also yield significant financial returns in the future, ensuring its sustained advantage in the weight loss market.
See More
