LifeSci Capital Downgrades Centessa to Market Perform After Eli Lilly Acquisition
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 12 hours ago
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Should l Buy CNTA?
LifeSci Capital downgraded Centessa (CNTA) to Market Perform from Outperform after Eli Lilly (LLY) announced an agreement to acquire the company for $38 per share in cash plus a non-transferable contingent value right worth up to $9 per share.
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Analyst Views on CNTA
Wall Street analysts forecast CNTA stock price to fall
13 Analyst Rating
13 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 39.720
Low
27.00
Averages
38.75
High
62.00
Current: 39.720
Low
27.00
Averages
38.75
High
62.00
About CNTA
Centessa Pharmaceuticals plc is a clinical-stage pharmaceutical company. The Company is developing a new class of potential therapies within its orexin receptor 2 (OX2R) agonist program for the treatment of excessive daytime sleepiness (EDS), impaired attention, cognitive deficits, fatigue and other symptoms across neurological, neurodegenerative and neuropsychiatric disorders. It also has an early-stage immuno-oncology program focused on its LockBody technology platform. Its OX2R agonist pipeline includes ORX750, its advanced OX2R agonist development candidate, and ORX142, ORX489 and OX2R agonists in preclinical development. Its ORX750, an investigational, orally administered, highly potent and selective OX2R agonist, is in a Phase IIa study of participants with narcolepsy type 1 (NT1), NT2 and idiopathic hypersomnia (IH). ORX142 is the second OX2R agonist development candidate being advanced for the treatment of neurological and neurodegenerative disorders and other symptoms.
About the author

Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
- Stock Performance: Centessa Pharmaceuticals shares traded at $39.72, surpassing the average analyst 12-month target price of $39.64, indicating a positive market sentiment regarding the company's future performance.
- Analyst Reactions: When a stock reaches an analyst's target price, they typically either downgrade the valuation or raise the target, reflecting varying perspectives on the company's fundamental developments, which may influence investor decisions.
- Target Price Distribution: Among analysts covered by Zacks, the average target price for Centessa Pharmaceuticals is $39.64 with a standard deviation of $8.472, indicating significant divergence in analyst opinions, with the lowest target at $30.00 and the highest at $62.00.
- Investor Signal: As the stock price exceeds the average target, investors are prompted to reassess Centessa Pharmaceuticals' valuation, considering whether to hold or reduce their positions, reflecting differing expectations about the company's future growth potential.
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- Acquisition Overview: Centessa Pharmaceuticals has entered into an acquisition agreement with Eli Lilly for up to $7.8 billion, with a cash purchase price of $38 per share representing a nearly 38% premium over Monday's closing price, indicating strong market confidence in its potential.
- Drug Development Prospects: Centessa is developing a novel class of drugs, specifically orexin receptor 2 (OX2R) agonists targeting daytime sleepiness and other neurological conditions, with its most promising drug, cleminorexton, showing best-in-class potential in Phase 2 clinical trials, positioning it as a market leader.
- Market Potential Analysis: According to Oppenheimer, Centessa's experimental therapies could capture a significant share of the $20 billion market for severe sleep disorder treatments, further enhancing Eli Lilly's strategic diversification of its development pipeline.
- Regulatory and Shareholder Approval: The transaction is projected to close in the third quarter, subject to shareholder and regulatory approval, and upon completion, Centessa's shareholders will receive a non-transferrable contingent value right valued at up to $9 per share.
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- Acquisition Overview: Eli Lilly is acquiring Centessa Pharmaceuticals for up to $7.8 billion, offering $38 per share in cash, which represents a nearly 38% premium over Centessa's closing price on Monday, providing substantial returns for its investors.
- Contingent Value Rights: Centessa shareholders will also receive a non-transferable contingent value right that could be worth up to $9 per share if certain regulatory milestones for its investigational drugs are met, enhancing the attractiveness and potential profitability of the deal.
- Market Potential Analysis: Centessa is developing a novel class of drugs targeting daytime sleepiness and other neurological conditions, with its leading experimental drug, cleminorexton, showing best-in-class potential in Phase 2 clinical studies, which could position it well in a $20 billion market for severe sleep disorder treatments.
- Strategic Investment Intent: Eli Lilly is leveraging the profits from its successful GLP-1 drugs, Mounjaro and Zepbound, to diversify its development pipeline, with Centessa's experimental therapies poised to become blockbuster sellers, further solidifying Lilly's leadership in the neuroscience sector.
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- Legal Investigation Launched: Halper Sadeh LLC is investigating Apellis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: APLS) regarding its sale to Biogen Inc. for $41.00 per share in cash and two contingent value rights of $2.00 each, potentially impacting shareholder rights.
- Shareholder Rights Protection: The firm encourages Centessa Pharmaceuticals plc (NASDAQ: CNTA) shareholders to consider the implications of its sale to Eli Lilly for $38.00 per share in cash plus a contingent value right of up to $9.00, ensuring the protection of shareholder interests.
- Asset Sale Impact: Allbirds, Inc. (NASDAQ: BIRD) sold its intellectual property and other assets for $39 million, and Halper Sadeh LLC may seek increased compensation and disclosures for shareholders to safeguard their interests.
- Transaction Transparency Issues: Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. (NASDAQ: WBD) is selling to Paramount Skydance Corporation for $31.00 per share in cash, with Halper Sadeh LLC potentially seeking greater transparency and protection for shareholder rights.
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- Market Rally: The S&P 500 index rose by 2.91%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average by 2.49%, and the Nasdaq 100 by 3.43%, reflecting market optimism regarding the potential end of the Iran war, which could lower energy prices and ease inflation concerns.
- Consumer Confidence Boost: The US March consumer confidence index unexpectedly increased by 0.8 to 91.8, surpassing the anticipated decline to 87.9, indicating a strengthening consumer outlook that may drive spending and economic growth.
- Strength in China: China's March manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4, better than the expected 50.1, signaling signs of economic recovery that could positively impact global growth prospects and further support US stock performance.
- Falling Bond Yields: The 10-year Treasury note yield dropped to 4.28%, a one-week low, reflecting reduced inflation worries, which may provide support for the stock market and enhance investor interest in equities.
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- Clinical Trial Progress: Alkermes' alixorexton demonstrated statistically significant improvements in wakefulness during mid-stage studies compared to placebo, indicating its potential in treating narcolepsy and attracting interest from large pharma companies.
- Positive Market Reaction: Following Eli Lilly's acquisition of Centessa, Alkermes shares surged 15%, reflecting market optimism regarding its prospects in the sleep disorder space, particularly with its developing orexin 2 receptor drug.
- Analyst Outlook: RBC Capital highlighted that the Lilly-Centessa deal underscores large pharma interest in the sleep sector, assigning Alkermes an 'Outperform' rating with a $45 price target, suggesting the stock is undervalued based on its orexin program alone.
- Retail Investor Sentiment Shift: On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around Alkermes stock shifted from 'neutral' to 'bullish' in the past 24 hours, with message volume increasing from 'low' to 'normal' levels, indicating rising interest in the stock.
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