JPMorgan: Costco to Benefit Most from Tax Season
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 06 2026
0mins
Should l Buy WMT?
Source: CNBC
- Tax Season Gains: JPMorgan analysts highlight that Costco is poised to benefit the most in the upcoming tax season, as consumers are expected to receive larger refunds, particularly compared to BJ's Wholesale and Walmart's Sam's Club.
- Market Performance Insight: Costco's stock has risen about 15% year-to-date in 2026, recovering from a 6% decline in 2025, indicating strong potential for recovery driven by tax stimulus.
- Consumer Demographic Advantage: With a membership base skewed towards mid- to high-end consumers, analysts believe Costco is well-positioned to attract shoppers during the tax season, especially with its strong performance in big-ticket merchandise.
- Overall Retail Impact: JPMorgan estimates that last year's tax law changes could lead to over a 1% increase in core retail sales in 2026, with the impact being particularly pronounced during the tax refund season, further solidifying Costco's market position.
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Analyst Views on WMT
Wall Street analysts forecast WMT stock price to fall
26 Analyst Rating
25 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 127.950
Low
119.00
Averages
125.75
High
136.00
Current: 127.950
Low
119.00
Averages
125.75
High
136.00
About WMT
Walmart Inc. is a technology-powered omnichannel retailer. The Company is engaged in the operation of retail and wholesale stores and clubs, as well as eCommerce Websites and mobile applications, located throughout the United States (U.S.), Africa, Canada, Central America, Chile, China, India and Mexico. It operates in three reportable segments: Walmart U.S., Walmart International and Sam's Club U.S. The Walmart U.S. segment includes the Company's mass merchandising concept in the U.S., as well as eCommerce, which includes omni-channel initiatives and certain other business offerings such as advertising services. The Walmart International segment consists of the Company's operations outside of the U.S. through its subsidiaries, as well as eCommerce and omni-channel initiatives. The Sam's Club U.S. segment includes the warehouse membership clubs in the U.S., as well as samsclub.com and omni-channel initiatives.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Price Surge vs. Growth Rate: Over the past three years, Walmart's stock price has increased by 170%, yet its average growth rate has only been around 5%, leading to a current P/E ratio of 47, which appears excessively high.
- Attraction of Safe Investments: Amidst a trend of investors flocking to traditional safe assets like gold and silver, Walmart's performance as a blue-chip stock has been relatively strong, but this does not imply that its current price is justifiable.
- Cautious Investment Advice: Despite Walmart's solid business fundamentals, analysts recommend that investors exercise caution in purchasing at this high valuation, suggesting that there are better value investment opportunities available in the market.
See More
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- Same-Store Sales Growth: Walmart reported a 4.6% same-store sales growth in Q4 2026, marking its 28th consecutive quarter of positive growth, which underscores its resilience and stability amid economic uncertainties and solidifies its market position.
- E-commerce and Advertising Revenue: The company's e-commerce revenue surged 24% year-over-year in Q4, significantly outpacing overall company growth, while advertising revenue soared 37%, indicating successful digital transformation that enhances profitability and market competitiveness.
- Massive Sales and Economic Moat: Walmart achieved $706 billion in net sales for fiscal 2026, leveraging its enormous scale and bargaining power to maintain dominance in the retail market, thereby reducing the risk of disruption from competitors.
- Dividend King Status: With 53 consecutive years of dividend increases, Walmart demonstrates strong cash flow and shareholder return capabilities, although the current high valuation necessitates cautious evaluation of future investment risks.
See More
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- Stable Performance: Walmart's share price has risen 183% over the past five years, achieving $706 billion in net sales for fiscal 2026, demonstrating resilience amid economic uncertainties, particularly after 28 consecutive quarters of same-store sales growth, indicating the stability and risk mitigation of its business model.
- Tech-Driven Transformation: Despite being viewed as a traditional retailer, Walmart's e-commerce revenue surged 24% year-over-year, and with its physical stores enhancing fulfillment capabilities, it can serve 95% of America within three hours, showcasing its success in digital transformation.
- Membership Growth: The Walmart+ membership service, launched in 2020, now boasts over 28 million members, providing a stable income stream for the company and enhancing customer loyalty and market competitiveness.
- Shareholder Returns and Valuation Risks: Walmart's net income has increased by 97% over the past three years, and it has raised dividends for 53 consecutive years; however, with a current P/E ratio of 45.6—almost double that of the S&P 500—investors face potential return risks at this high valuation.
See More
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- Earnings Expectations: Target anticipates holiday-quarter earnings per share of $2.15 and revenue of $30.48 billion, although these figures fall short of last year's results, indicating ongoing struggles amid a sales slump.
- Sales Outlook: The company has confirmed a low single-digit percentage decline in fourth-quarter sales and expects adjusted earnings per share for fiscal 2025 to range between $7 and $8, reflecting persistent market challenges and weak consumer confidence.
- Layoff Impact: Target's decision to cut 1,800 corporate jobs in October marks its first major layoffs in a decade, underscoring the urgency to address sales weakness and customer attrition.
- Competitive Pressure: Compared to rivals like Walmart and Costco, Target's sales performance has lagged, leading to customer losses and market share declines, prompting new CEO Fiddelke to emphasize strategies for improving customer experience and brand reputation.
See More
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- Market Cap and Performance: Walmart's market cap exceeds $1 trillion, and although it recently posted earnings that beat expectations, the stock has not surged, indicating investor concerns about its high valuation.
- Growth Rate Analysis: With an average annual growth rate of around 5%, Walmart's stable growth seems insufficient to justify a 170% increase in its stock price over the past three years.
- Valuation Concerns: Currently trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 47, which is extraordinarily high for a blue-chip stock, investors need to be cautious about future growth expectations, as the current price appears unjustifiable.
- Market Outlook: Despite Walmart's solid business performance, its stock may have peaked, as recent declines suggest that market expectations for future growth are not optimistic.
See More
Has Walmart's Stock Peaked?
- Earnings Beat Expectations: Walmart recently reported earnings that surpassed market expectations on both revenue and net income; however, the stock did not surge, indicating investor concerns about its high valuation, which could impact future investment decisions.
- Stable Growth Rate: With an average annual growth rate of around 5%, Walmart's growth has been consistent, but it seems insufficient to justify a 170% increase in stock price over the past three years, leading to potential price corrections.
- High Valuation: Currently trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 47, Walmart's valuation is considered extremely high for a blue-chip stock, prompting investors to carefully assess its future growth potential to determine if the current price is justified.
- Cautious Investment Advice: Despite Walmart's solid business performance, analysts recommend avoiding the stock at its current high valuation, suggesting that there are better value investment options available, which may affect Walmart's market performance.
See More
