Jefferies Downgrades First Solar (FSLR) to Hold, Lowers Price Target to $260
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 07 2026
0mins
Should l Buy FSLR?
Source: Fool
- Rating Downgrade: Jefferies analyst Julian Dumoulin-Smith downgraded First Solar's rating from Buy to Hold and lowered the price target from $269 to $260, reflecting a pessimistic outlook on the company's future performance.
- Booking Outlook Dim: The analyst noted that First Solar's bookings have not improved, and management has lowered guidance multiple times last year primarily due to customer project cancellations (debookings), indicating weak market demand.
- Insufficient Policy Support: Despite the passage of a significant energy bill by the U.S. government last year, the analyst believes that top-down support for alternative energy solutions is lacking, which may further suppress First Solar's growth potential.
- Industry Challenges Intensify: Amid economic uncertainty and widespread consumer concerns, the solar industry, where First Solar operates, faces ongoing challenges, leading the analyst to advise caution for investors considering the stock at this time.
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Analyst Views on FSLR
Wall Street analysts forecast FSLR stock price to rise
23 Analyst Rating
18 Buy
4 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 200.250
Low
150.00
Averages
280.35
High
335.00
Current: 200.250
Low
150.00
Averages
280.35
High
335.00
About FSLR
First Solar, Inc. is a photovoltaic (PV) solar technology and manufacturing company. It is focused on enabling power generation needs with its advanced, thin film PV technology. The Company's primary segment is its modules business, which involves the design, manufacture, and sale of CdTe solar modules, which convert sunlight into electricity. Third-party customers of the segment include system developers, independent power producers, utilities, commercial and industrial companies, and other system owners and operators. The Company's products include the Series 7 Module and Series 6 Plus module. Its Series 6 Plus module is a glass laminate approximately 4ft x 6ft in size that encapsulates thin film PV semiconductor materials. Its Series 7 module has a larger form factor of approximately 4ft x 7ft in size. The Series 6 Plus and Series 7 modules had an average power output of 459 watts and 531 watts, respectively.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Accelerated Approval Process: Under the new rules, Chinese investments in Indian companies will be expedited with a processing time of 60 days, provided that the firms remain Indian-owned, which is expected to attract foreign capital and improve the ease of doing business.
- Increased Market Attractiveness: Experts suggest that allowing limited Chinese participation could facilitate multinational companies in shifting final assembly to India while maintaining access to Chinese inputs, thereby enhancing India's attractiveness within the 'China-plus-one' supply chain diversification strategies.
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See More
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- Disappointing Guidance: First Solar's 2026 revenue guidance of $4.9 to $5.2 billion falls short of Wall Street estimates by approximately $1 billion, indicating significant growth challenges, which led to a sharp decline in stock price as the market becomes more aware of underlying fundamental issues.
- Significant Order Decline: By the end of 2025, First Solar's contracted orders plummeted from 78.3 GW at the end of 2023 to just 50.1 GW, highlighting severe order depletion, with net bookings for 2025 reported at negative 0.9 GW, reflecting weak demand and insufficient market confidence.
- Tax Credit Dependency: The company benefits from $0.17 per watt in 45X tax credits, which constitutes 55% of its selling price; without these credits phasing out starting in 2030, gross margins could collapse from around 40% to 7-10%, severely impacting profitability.
- Manufacturing Issues and Capacity Expansion: First Solar faces quality control issues with its Series 7 modules, resulting in warranty reserves of up to $100 million, while also announcing capacity cuts in Malaysia and Vietnam, indicating risks associated with expanding capacity amid weakening demand.
See More
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- Analyst Rating Changes: First Solar Inc. (FSLR) holds a consensus rating of Moderate Buy from 24 analysts; however, Deutsche Bank downgraded its rating to Hold from Buy and lowered the price target from $300 to $245, reflecting disappointment over the company's fourth-quarter earnings miss.
- Financial Performance Overview: The company reported fourth-quarter revenue of $1.7 billion, an increase of $0.1 billion year-over-year, with full-year net sales rising 24% to $5.2 billion, yet the fourth-quarter net income per diluted share of $4.84 fell short of market expectations.
- Guidance Downgrade: Jefferies reduced its price target from $260 to $205, citing concerns over the company's forward-looking guidance, which projected 2026 revenue between $4.9 billion and $5.2 billion, 17% below analysts' estimates.
- Market Competition Analysis: While First Solar leads the U.S. photovoltaic market specializing in cadmium telluride thin-film modules, analysts suggest that certain AI stocks present greater upside potential and lower downside risk, potentially influencing investor decisions.
See More
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- Self-Power Commitment: Trump is set to sign an agreement with major tech firms like Amazon, Google, and Meta, mandating them to supply their own power for AI data centers, addressing rising public anger over electricity prices, although the specifics of the commitment remain unclear.
- Rising Electricity Pressure: Average residential electricity prices in the U.S. increased by 6% in 2025, contrasting Trump's promise to halve prices during his term, highlighting the government's challenges in controlling energy costs, which could impact his support in the midterm elections.
- Implementation Challenges: The decentralized nature of electric grid regulations across states poses significant hurdles for the Trump administration in converting the pledge into actionable policy, with experts indicating that new federal legislation is necessary to address power supply shortages.
- Increased Political Pressure: Trump is leveraging his political influence to pressure tech companies into absorbing the costs associated with their data centers, despite the complexities arising from state-level regulation of power generation, which may complicate policy implementation.
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