Should You Buy First Solar Inc (FSLR) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Buy
Latest Price
224.010
1 Day change
-10.18%
52 Week Range
285.990
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
Buy for a beginner long-term investor right now. The stock is in a strengthening uptrend (positive/expanding MACD, RSI neutral-not-overbought) and just reclaimed key levels after a strong close (+6.11%). While near-term chop is possible (price is approaching first resistance ~249.86 and options volume skews bearish), the company’s fundamental momentum (Q3 FY2025 strong YoY growth) and generally supportive Wall Street stance still make the current price an acceptable entry for an impatient long-term buyer. Biggest near-term risks are heavy insider selling and potential 2026 guidance caution into the 2026-02-25 earnings.
Technical Analysis
Trend/price action: Strong upside day to 247.01 (from 235.05) with post-market modest pullback (-0.96%), suggesting buyers are in control but some profit-taking is appearing.
Indicators: MACD histogram 0.0817 above zero and expanding (bullish momentum). RSI_6 at 59.48 is neutral-to-bullish (not overbought).
Moving averages: Converging MAs indicate the stock is transitioning from consolidation into a potential trend phase; today’s breakout-like move supports a bullish bias.
Levels: Pivot 242.93 is the key near-term line to hold. Resistance R1 249.86 (very close) then R2 254.14; a push above ~249.86 would strengthen the uptrend. Support S1 236.00 then S2 231.73.
Pattern-based probability (provided): +5.32% next week but -9.45% next month implies upside momentum may be followed by a pullback—consistent with buying now but expecting volatility.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today.
- [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock today.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bearish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning/sentiment: Open interest put/call ratio at 0.86 is moderately bullish (more calls positioned than puts). However, the option volume put/call ratio at 1.81 is bearish for the day (more puts traded than calls), which often signals short-term hedging/protection after a rally.
Volatility: 30D IV 54.84 vs historical vol 60.44 with IV percentile 38.8 / IV rank 26.69 suggests options are not extremely expensive; sentiment is mixed rather than euphoric.
Activity: Today’s volume (13,890) is ~52% of the 30-day average, implying the bearish put skew is not driven by unusually heavy trading, but it still flags near-term caution around resistance/earnings positioning.
Technical Summary
Sell
10
Buy
3
Positive Catalysts
Fundamental growth: FY2025 Q3 revenue +79.67% YoY, EPS +45.70% YoY, net income +45.69% YoY.
Policy/trade optionality: Analysts continue to cite potential upside from U.S. manufacturing advantages and possible tariff dynamics (e.g., Section 232-related themes).
Demand/macro narrative: Recent news flow supportive for solar sentiment broadly (high-profile commentary reinforcing solar’s role in the energy transition).
Earnings catalyst ahead: Next earnings (QDEC
on 2026-02-25 AH (Street EPS est. 5.
can act as a catalyst if bookings/pricing commentary is strong.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Insider activity: Insiders are selling, with selling amount up ~49,060% over the last month—this is the most notable red flag in the dataset.
Guidance risk: Citi warned FSLR could guide below consensus for 2026 due to lower volumes and higher costs.
Margin trend risk: Gross margin in FY2025 Q3 is down -23.68% YoY (despite strong revenue/EPS growth), suggesting profitability mix/cost pressures remain a watch item.
Near-term technical friction: Price is close to resistance (R1 ~249.86); rejection there can trigger a quick pullback.
Latest reported quarter: FY2025 Q3. Revenue rose to $1.5949B (+79.67% YoY), net income to $455.9M (+45.69% YoY), and EPS to $4.24 (+45.70% YoY), indicating strong top-line and bottom-line expansion. The key blemish is gross margin at 38.29% (down -23.68% YoY), which aligns with analyst concerns about costs/volumes impacting future guidance. Overall: strong growth with a margin-pressure nuance.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Price targets were raised multiple times into early January (Deutsche Bank to $300, Guggenheim to $312, BofA to $291) reflecting optimism around policy/trade and U.S. manufacturing advantage. More recently (Jan 20–22), the tone turned slightly more cautious: RBC raised PT to $258 (still Outperform), BofA cut PT to $271 (still Buy), and Citi removed FSLR as its top renewables pick and flagged potential for below-consensus 2026 guidance. Jefferies downgraded to Hold with a $260 PT citing limited booking visibility and questions around the magnitude of tariff tailwinds.
Wall Street pros: advantaged U.S. positioning, supportive policy/tax credits, potential trade/tariff upside, strong recent financial growth.
Wall Street cons: 2026 visibility/guidance risk, potential cost pressure and margin compression, and limited upside per more cautious shops near current levels.
Influential/political trading: No recent congress trading data available. Hedge funds neutral per provided trading trends.
Wall Street analysts forecast FSLR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for FSLR is 280.35 USD with a low forecast of 150 USD and a high forecast of 335 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
23 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast FSLR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for FSLR is 280.35 USD with a low forecast of 150 USD and a high forecast of 335 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
18 Buy
4 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 249.410
Low
150
Averages
280.35
High
335
Current: 249.410
Low
150
Averages
280.35
High
335
BMO Capital
Outperform -> Market Perform
downgrade
$263
AI Analysis
2026-01-29
New
Reason
BMO Capital
Price Target
$263
AI Analysis
2026-01-29
New
downgrade
Outperform -> Market Perform
Reason
BMO Capital downgraded First Solar to Market Perform from Outperform with a $263 price target.
BMO Capital
Outperform -> Market Perform
downgrade
$285 -> $263
2026-01-29
New
Reason
BMO Capital
Price Target
$285 -> $263
2026-01-29
New
downgrade
Outperform -> Market Perform
Reason
BMO Capital downgraded First Solar (FSLR) to Market Perform from Outperform with a price target of $263, down from $285. The firm "initially dismissed as aspirational" Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk's remarks last week about potentially building a significant vertically integrated solar photovoltaic modules manufacturing base to self-generate. However, Musk's remarks during Tesla's earnings call suggest "this is likely to become a bona fide effort" in the next few quarters, the analyst tells investors in a research note. BMO believes Tesla's efforts could be an overhang on First Solar shares "for some time" and weigh on investor sentiment. The stock in premarket trading is down 3%, or $6.71, to $242.70.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for FSLR
