Iran War Drives Surge in Global Natural Gas Prices
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 5 hours ago
0mins
Source: Newsfilter
- Global Supply Disruption: The Iran war has halted 20% of global LNG supply, with Qatari facilities damaged and tankers unable to navigate the Strait of Hormuz, causing prices to surge by 84% in Europe and 108% in Asia, severely impacting import-dependent countries.
- U.S. Market Conditions: Despite U.S. gas production reaching a record 107.7 billion cubic feet per day, pipeline congestion and LNG export facilities operating near capacity have driven domestic prices down to a 17-month low of $2.52/mmBtu, creating a stark divergence from international markets.
- Transport Capacity Bottleneck: Analysts indicate that significant transport relief won't materialize until late 2026 or early 2027 when larger pipeline projects are expected to commence, forcing regions like New England to rely on expensive LNG imports and oil for power generation, exacerbating energy cost pressures.
- Market Winners and Losers: Companies like Venture Global have capitalized on global price dislocations, while major gas producers like EQT have had to cut output due to low domestic prices, highlighting the stark polarization in the market dynamics.
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Analyst Views on VG
Wall Street analysts forecast VG stock price to fall
9 Analyst Rating
5 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 13.270
Low
8.00
Averages
11.13
High
16.00
Current: 13.270
Low
8.00
Averages
11.13
High
16.00
About VG
Venture Global, Inc. is a provider of the United States liquefied natural gas (LNG) sourced from North American natural gas basins. The Company's business includes assets across the LNG supply chain, including LNG production, natural gas transport, shipping and regasification. The Company sells LNG and is engaged in the operation, construction, and development of natural gas liquefaction and export facilities in North America (LNG projects). Each LNG project includes a liquefaction facility and export terminal and one or more associated pipelines that interconnect with several interstate and intrastate pipelines for delivery of natural gas into the associated liquefaction facility and export terminal. The Company has multiple segments, including the Company's five LNG projects: the Calcasieu Project, the Plaquemines Project, the CP2 Project, the CP3 Project and the Delta Project, and its direct sales and shipping (DS&S) business and pipeline activities.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Iran War Drives Surge in Global Natural Gas Prices
- Global Supply Disruption: The Iran war has halted 20% of global LNG supply, with Qatari facilities damaged and tankers unable to navigate the Strait of Hormuz, causing prices to surge by 84% in Europe and 108% in Asia, severely impacting import-dependent countries.
- U.S. Market Conditions: Despite U.S. gas production reaching a record 107.7 billion cubic feet per day, pipeline congestion and LNG export facilities operating near capacity have driven domestic prices down to a 17-month low of $2.52/mmBtu, creating a stark divergence from international markets.
- Transport Capacity Bottleneck: Analysts indicate that significant transport relief won't materialize until late 2026 or early 2027 when larger pipeline projects are expected to commence, forcing regions like New England to rely on expensive LNG imports and oil for power generation, exacerbating energy cost pressures.
- Market Winners and Losers: Companies like Venture Global have capitalized on global price dislocations, while major gas producers like EQT have had to cut output due to low domestic prices, highlighting the stark polarization in the market dynamics.
See More
Woodside Energy Faces LNG Sales Challenges
- Liquefaction Fee Dispute: Woodside Energy is struggling to sell LNG volumes from its Louisiana export facility due to liquefaction fees above U.S. market rates, initially quoted at $2.80 per million British thermal units compared to the prevailing $2.40 to $2.50, potentially impacting its market competitiveness.
- Long-Term Contract Appeal: While Woodside's 10-year contracts are attractive in duration, pricing issues have led to customer hesitance, with the revised offer at $2.60 per mmBtu still higher than some competitors, indicating a pricing sticking point.
- Strong Customer Interest: Despite pricing challenges, Woodside's CEO noted strong customer interest, emphasizing the company's competitive pricing in the market, which reflects confidence in its North American expansion strategy.
- Project Investment Scale: The first phase of the Louisiana LNG project is expected to cost $17.5 billion, with Woodside selling 40% of the facility to U.S. investment firm Stonepeak, further solidifying its market position.
See More
U.S. Signs Multi-Billion Dollar Deals with Balkan Nations
- Energy Security Agreement: The U.S. signed a $6 billion long-term LNG export deal with Albania, aimed at enhancing energy security and national security across the region, significantly boosting U.S. energy influence in the Balkans.
- Pipeline Construction Support: The U.S. backs an agreement between Bosnia and Croatia to construct a gas pipeline that will transport U.S. natural gas from an LNG terminal on Croatia's Krk Island to Bosnia, expected to reduce Bosnia's reliance on Russian gas.
- Investment Commitment: U.S. company AAFS Infrastructure and Energy LLC will invest approximately €1.5 billion ($1.8 billion) in the pipeline project, led by former Trump lawyer Jesse Binnall and Joseph Flynn, brother of Trump's former national security adviser, demonstrating U.S. commitment to energy diversification in the region.
- AI Development Collaboration: Croatian engineering firm Rade Koncar and U.S.-based investment group Pantheon Atlas LLC signed a letter of intent to develop a €50 billion AI data center in central Croatia, with construction slated to begin in 2027 and operations by 2029, further advancing technological progress in the region.
See More
War Disrupts Global LNG Market Dynamics
- LNG Supply Gap: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has severely impacted Qatar's LNG exports, driving global LNG prices up by a third, which is expected to significantly pressure economies reliant on LNG.
- U.S. Export Surge: U.S. LNG exporters loaded a record 32.2 million metric tons of LNG in the first four months of this year, a 28% increase from last year, effectively offsetting the 6.9 million tons of displaced supply from Qatar, highlighting the U.S.'s growing importance in the global LNG market.
- Key Facility Performance: Venture Global's Plaquemines LNG terminal loaded almost 6.5 million tons of LNG in Q1, a 240% increase year-over-year, while Cheniere Energy's Sabine Pass terminal accounted for a quarter of all U.S. LNG exports, indicating rapid market share expansion by U.S. LNG operators.
- Future Demand Outlook: As countries seek to diversify their supply sources, U.S. LNG operators are expected to benefit from increased future demand, which will drive capacity expansions in the coming years, further solidifying their market position.
See More
Goldman Sachs Lowers 2026 IPO Forecast Amid Market Volatility
- IPO Forecast Reduction: Goldman Sachs has revised its 2026 IPO forecast down from 120 to 100 deals, expecting total proceeds of $160 billion, primarily due to geopolitical uncertainties and increased volatility in the equity markets, indicating a fragile market environment.
- Market Environment Analysis: While the macroeconomic backdrop remains supportive of IPO activities, Goldman flagged increased selectivity and downside risks to issuance, suggesting that investor confidence in new offerings may be waning, which could impact future fundraising capabilities.
- Market Performance Overview: Since 2025, Venture Global leads the IPO market with a market cap of $60 billion, despite a 48% decline since its IPO, highlighting the high volatility and investment risks present in the current market.
- Industry Dynamics: Among various IPOs, CoreWeave's 194% growth in market cap demonstrates strong market performance, while Figma faces a 53.25% year-to-date decline due to structural risks, reflecting the varying performances of companies in the current market environment.
See More
U.S. LNG Exports Surge to Record Levels Amid Qatar Supply Disruptions
- Record Export Volumes: U.S. LNG exports are projected to reach 32.15 million metric tons in the first four months of 2026, marking a 28% increase from the same period in 2025, representing the largest year-over-year growth since 2020 and highlighting U.S. competitiveness in the global market.
- Supply Gap Closure: U.S. exporters have successfully filled the 17% export capacity loss from Qatar due to war by maximizing liquefaction capacity and tightening loading schedules, ensuring that total global LNG supplies remain at record highs despite geopolitical disruptions.
- Terminal Performance: The Plaquemines LNG terminal has seen a 240% year-over-year increase in export volumes, loading nearly 6.5 million tons of LNG in Q1 2026, making it the second-largest U.S. export facility and helping push total quarterly U.S. shipments above 31 million tons for the first time.
- Future Outlook: Although gas consumption in Europe is expected to decline, potentially slowing U.S. LNG orders, the current low inventory levels at around 30% full suggest that steady LNG orders will continue in the coming months to replenish supplies ahead of winter, allowing for necessary maintenance at U.S. facilities.
See More
Iran War Drives Surge in Global Natural Gas Prices
- Global Supply Disruption: The Iran war has halted 20% of global LNG supply, with Qatari facilities damaged and tankers unable to navigate the Strait of Hormuz, causing prices to surge by 84% in Europe and 108% in Asia, severely impacting import-dependent countries.
- U.S. Market Conditions: Despite U.S. gas production reaching a record 107.7 billion cubic feet per day, pipeline congestion and LNG export facilities operating near capacity have driven domestic prices down to a 17-month low of $2.52/mmBtu, creating a stark divergence from international markets.
- Transport Capacity Bottleneck: Analysts indicate that significant transport relief won't materialize until late 2026 or early 2027 when larger pipeline projects are expected to commence, forcing regions like New England to rely on expensive LNG imports and oil for power generation, exacerbating energy cost pressures.
- Market Winners and Losers: Companies like Venture Global have capitalized on global price dislocations, while major gas producers like EQT have had to cut output due to low domestic prices, highlighting the stark polarization in the market dynamics.
See More
Woodside Energy Faces LNG Sales Challenges
- Liquefaction Fee Dispute: Woodside Energy is struggling to sell LNG volumes from its Louisiana export facility due to liquefaction fees above U.S. market rates, initially quoted at $2.80 per million British thermal units compared to the prevailing $2.40 to $2.50, potentially impacting its market competitiveness.
- Long-Term Contract Appeal: While Woodside's 10-year contracts are attractive in duration, pricing issues have led to customer hesitance, with the revised offer at $2.60 per mmBtu still higher than some competitors, indicating a pricing sticking point.
- Strong Customer Interest: Despite pricing challenges, Woodside's CEO noted strong customer interest, emphasizing the company's competitive pricing in the market, which reflects confidence in its North American expansion strategy.
- Project Investment Scale: The first phase of the Louisiana LNG project is expected to cost $17.5 billion, with Woodside selling 40% of the facility to U.S. investment firm Stonepeak, further solidifying its market position.
See More
U.S. Signs Multi-Billion Dollar Deals with Balkan Nations
- Energy Security Agreement: The U.S. signed a $6 billion long-term LNG export deal with Albania, aimed at enhancing energy security and national security across the region, significantly boosting U.S. energy influence in the Balkans.
- Pipeline Construction Support: The U.S. backs an agreement between Bosnia and Croatia to construct a gas pipeline that will transport U.S. natural gas from an LNG terminal on Croatia's Krk Island to Bosnia, expected to reduce Bosnia's reliance on Russian gas.
- Investment Commitment: U.S. company AAFS Infrastructure and Energy LLC will invest approximately €1.5 billion ($1.8 billion) in the pipeline project, led by former Trump lawyer Jesse Binnall and Joseph Flynn, brother of Trump's former national security adviser, demonstrating U.S. commitment to energy diversification in the region.
- AI Development Collaboration: Croatian engineering firm Rade Koncar and U.S.-based investment group Pantheon Atlas LLC signed a letter of intent to develop a €50 billion AI data center in central Croatia, with construction slated to begin in 2027 and operations by 2029, further advancing technological progress in the region.
See More
War Disrupts Global LNG Market Dynamics
- LNG Supply Gap: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has severely impacted Qatar's LNG exports, driving global LNG prices up by a third, which is expected to significantly pressure economies reliant on LNG.
- U.S. Export Surge: U.S. LNG exporters loaded a record 32.2 million metric tons of LNG in the first four months of this year, a 28% increase from last year, effectively offsetting the 6.9 million tons of displaced supply from Qatar, highlighting the U.S.'s growing importance in the global LNG market.
- Key Facility Performance: Venture Global's Plaquemines LNG terminal loaded almost 6.5 million tons of LNG in Q1, a 240% increase year-over-year, while Cheniere Energy's Sabine Pass terminal accounted for a quarter of all U.S. LNG exports, indicating rapid market share expansion by U.S. LNG operators.
- Future Demand Outlook: As countries seek to diversify their supply sources, U.S. LNG operators are expected to benefit from increased future demand, which will drive capacity expansions in the coming years, further solidifying their market position.
See More
Goldman Sachs Lowers 2026 IPO Forecast Amid Market Volatility
- IPO Forecast Reduction: Goldman Sachs has revised its 2026 IPO forecast down from 120 to 100 deals, expecting total proceeds of $160 billion, primarily due to geopolitical uncertainties and increased volatility in the equity markets, indicating a fragile market environment.
- Market Environment Analysis: While the macroeconomic backdrop remains supportive of IPO activities, Goldman flagged increased selectivity and downside risks to issuance, suggesting that investor confidence in new offerings may be waning, which could impact future fundraising capabilities.
- Market Performance Overview: Since 2025, Venture Global leads the IPO market with a market cap of $60 billion, despite a 48% decline since its IPO, highlighting the high volatility and investment risks present in the current market.
- Industry Dynamics: Among various IPOs, CoreWeave's 194% growth in market cap demonstrates strong market performance, while Figma faces a 53.25% year-to-date decline due to structural risks, reflecting the varying performances of companies in the current market environment.
See More
U.S. LNG Exports Surge to Record Levels Amid Qatar Supply Disruptions
- Record Export Volumes: U.S. LNG exports are projected to reach 32.15 million metric tons in the first four months of 2026, marking a 28% increase from the same period in 2025, representing the largest year-over-year growth since 2020 and highlighting U.S. competitiveness in the global market.
- Supply Gap Closure: U.S. exporters have successfully filled the 17% export capacity loss from Qatar due to war by maximizing liquefaction capacity and tightening loading schedules, ensuring that total global LNG supplies remain at record highs despite geopolitical disruptions.
- Terminal Performance: The Plaquemines LNG terminal has seen a 240% year-over-year increase in export volumes, loading nearly 6.5 million tons of LNG in Q1 2026, making it the second-largest U.S. export facility and helping push total quarterly U.S. shipments above 31 million tons for the first time.
- Future Outlook: Although gas consumption in Europe is expected to decline, potentially slowing U.S. LNG orders, the current low inventory levels at around 30% full suggest that steady LNG orders will continue in the coming months to replenish supplies ahead of winter, allowing for necessary maintenance at U.S. facilities.
See More
