Iran Tensions Spark Potential Energy Crisis
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 4 hours ago
0mins
Should l Buy XOM?
Source: Fool
- Escalating Energy Crisis: With the Strait of Hormuz largely closed, approximately 20% of the world's oil and natural gas transport is severely impacted, potentially leading to the most serious energy crisis in decades, forcing nations to reassess their energy supply chains.
- Surging Oil Prices: Since the outbreak of war, crude oil prices have surged to around $100 per barrel, with estimates suggesting that WTI could rise to $140 per barrel in the event of prolonged attacks on Middle Eastern energy infrastructure, significantly boosting profit margins for oil companies.
- Strong Production from ExxonMobil: In 2025, ExxonMobil achieved an average production of 4.7 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, marking its best performance in over four decades, primarily driven by strategic assets in the Permian Basin and Guyana, showcasing the company's competitive edge amid the current crisis.
- Ongoing Buybacks and Dividends: ExxonMobil is repurchasing shares to offset those issued for its $59.5 billion acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources, and with a 43-year streak of dividend increases, the company demonstrates strong financial resilience in navigating oil price cycles, positioning itself for potential future acquisitions.
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Analyst Views on XOM
Wall Street analysts forecast XOM stock price to fall
19 Analyst Rating
12 Buy
7 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 165.430
Low
114.00
Averages
132.17
High
158.00
Current: 165.430
Low
114.00
Averages
132.17
High
158.00
About XOM
Exxon Mobil Corporation is an energy provider and chemical manufacturer. The Company’s principal business involves exploration for, and production of, crude oil and natural gas; the manufacture, trade, transport and sale of crude oil, natural gas, petroleum products, petrochemicals and a wide variety of specialty products; and pursuit of lower-emission and other new business opportunities, including carbon capture and storage, hydrogen, lower-emission fuels, Proxxima systems, carbon materials, and lithium. Its Upstream segment explores for and produces crude oil and natural gas. The Energy Products, Chemical Products, and Specialty Products segments manufacture and sell petroleum products and petrochemicals. Energy Products segment includes fuels, aromatics, and catalysts and licensing. Chemical Products segment consists of olefins, polyolefins, and intermediates. Specialty Products segment includes finished lubricants, basestocks and waxes, synthetics, and elastomers and resins.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Soaring Oil Prices Present Opportunities for ExxonMobil
- Surging Oil Prices: Amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, crude oil prices have surged to around $100 per barrel over the past month, with projections suggesting they could reach $140 in severe disruption scenarios, significantly enhancing ExxonMobil's profit margins and competitive positioning.
- Accelerated Share Buybacks: Following its $59.5 billion acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources in 2024, ExxonMobil continues to repurchase shares, and if oil prices remain high, it will gain more financial power to reduce share dilution, thereby enhancing future financial flexibility.
- Consistent Dividend Growth: ExxonMobil has increased its dividend for 43 consecutive years, demonstrating stability through oil and gas price cycles, with a current yield of 2.5%, and potential for more aggressive dividend hikes if oil prices stay elevated.
- Acquisition Opportunities: With increasing cash flow, ExxonMobil may reload its balance sheet for new acquisitions, further solidifying its leadership in the oil and gas industry, especially in the context of the ongoing energy crisis.
See More
Iran Tensions Spark Potential Energy Crisis
- Escalating Energy Crisis: With the Strait of Hormuz largely closed, approximately 20% of the world's oil and natural gas transport is severely impacted, potentially leading to the most serious energy crisis in decades, forcing nations to reassess their energy supply chains.
- Surging Oil Prices: Since the outbreak of war, crude oil prices have surged to around $100 per barrel, with estimates suggesting that WTI could rise to $140 per barrel in the event of prolonged attacks on Middle Eastern energy infrastructure, significantly boosting profit margins for oil companies.
- Strong Production from ExxonMobil: In 2025, ExxonMobil achieved an average production of 4.7 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, marking its best performance in over four decades, primarily driven by strategic assets in the Permian Basin and Guyana, showcasing the company's competitive edge amid the current crisis.
- Ongoing Buybacks and Dividends: ExxonMobil is repurchasing shares to offset those issued for its $59.5 billion acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources, and with a 43-year streak of dividend increases, the company demonstrates strong financial resilience in navigating oil price cycles, positioning itself for potential future acquisitions.
See More
Iran War Effects Widen, Pressuring Stock Markets
- Oil Price Surge Impact: The ongoing war in Iran has led to a 5.5% increase in West Texas Intermediate crude to $99.64 per barrel and a 4.2% rise in Brent crude to $112.57, causing the Dow and Nasdaq to drop 1.7% and 2.2%, respectively, highlighting the market's sensitivity to rising oil prices.
- Tech Stocks Hit Hard: News regarding Anthropic's AI model has severely impacted enterprise software stocks, with CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks seeing declines of 6% and over 9%, respectively, reflecting investor concerns about AI potentially replacing traditional software companies and exacerbating market anxiety.
- Meta Platforms Legal Challenges: Meta's stock fell nearly 11.5% after losing two social media addiction lawsuits, raising concerns about the company's short-term performance and long-term legal risks, although analysts believe the company has a strong legal position.
- Costco's Resilience: Despite overall market pressures, Costco's shares rose 1.2% last week, driven by increased customer traffic from higher gas prices and a new standalone gas station initiative, demonstrating the company's ability to find growth opportunities even in challenging conditions.
See More
Energy Executives Warn of Middle East War Impact
- Oil Supply Crisis: CEOs of major energy companies warned at S&P Global's CERAWeek that the Iran war has disrupted 8 million barrels of oil and 20% of the LNG market daily, potentially leading to fuel shortages in Asia and Europe, severely impacting the global economy.
- Market Reaction Lag: ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance noted that the market is not reflecting the scale of the supply disruption, with oil prices likely to remain high at $99.64 per barrel even after the conflict ends, as countries will need to restock depleted reserves.
- Geopolitical Risks Escalate: Kuwait Petroleum CEO Sheikh Nawaf al-Sabah stated that Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is not only an attack on Gulf nations but poses a threat to the global economy, potentially causing a domino effect throughout the supply chain.
- Fuel Shortages Spread: Shell CEO Wael Sawan highlighted that jet fuel and diesel prices have surged to $200 and $160 per barrel respectively, with the crisis expected to impact major Asian economies and reach Europe by April, prompting governments to stockpile and protect their supplies.
See More
Surging Oil Prices Propel ExxonMobil's Fortunes
- Oil Price Surge: Brent crude oil prices have skyrocketed from around $60 at the beginning of the year to over $100, highlighting ExxonMobil's enhanced profitability in a high oil price environment due to market turmoil from the Iran conflict.
- Increased Earnings Outlook: Last December, ExxonMobil raised its 2030 earnings and cash flow growth estimates by $5 billion, now expecting to generate an additional $25 billion in annual earnings and $35 billion in cash flow compared to 2024 levels.
- Strong Financial Position: With an industry-leading leverage ratio of 11%, ExxonMobil boasts the best balance sheet in the sector, planning to repurchase $20 billion in shares under reasonable market conditions, further solidifying its financial strength.
- Shareholder Return Potential: As oil prices rise, ExxonMobil is poised to increase its share repurchase rate, enhancing its ability to sustain dividend growth, which it has achieved for an industry-leading 43 consecutive years.
See More
Surging Oil Prices Provide Windfall for ExxonMobil
- Oil Price Surge: Brent crude oil prices have skyrocketed from around $60 at the beginning of the year to over $100, highlighting an unexpected profit opportunity for ExxonMobil (XOM), which is expected to significantly enhance its cash flow and profitability.
- 2030 Earnings Outlook: ExxonMobil raised its earnings and cash flow growth estimates for 2030 last December, projecting an additional $25 billion in annual earnings and $35 billion in cash flow compared to 2024 levels without changing commodity prices or capital spending, showcasing its strong financial resilience.
- Cash Flow Forecast: With Brent oil priced at $65, ExxonMobil anticipates generating $145 billion in cumulative surplus cash over the plan period, and the current high oil prices suggest an even larger surplus cash flow, further solidifying its financial strength.
- Share Buyback Plan: ExxonMobil plans to repurchase $20 billion in shares under reasonable market conditions, and with rising oil prices boosting cash flow, it may accelerate buybacks, supporting its 43 consecutive years of dividend growth and enhancing shareholder returns.
See More
Soaring Oil Prices Present Opportunities for ExxonMobil
- Surging Oil Prices: Amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, crude oil prices have surged to around $100 per barrel over the past month, with projections suggesting they could reach $140 in severe disruption scenarios, significantly enhancing ExxonMobil's profit margins and competitive positioning.
- Accelerated Share Buybacks: Following its $59.5 billion acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources in 2024, ExxonMobil continues to repurchase shares, and if oil prices remain high, it will gain more financial power to reduce share dilution, thereby enhancing future financial flexibility.
- Consistent Dividend Growth: ExxonMobil has increased its dividend for 43 consecutive years, demonstrating stability through oil and gas price cycles, with a current yield of 2.5%, and potential for more aggressive dividend hikes if oil prices stay elevated.
- Acquisition Opportunities: With increasing cash flow, ExxonMobil may reload its balance sheet for new acquisitions, further solidifying its leadership in the oil and gas industry, especially in the context of the ongoing energy crisis.
See More
Iran Tensions Spark Potential Energy Crisis
- Escalating Energy Crisis: With the Strait of Hormuz largely closed, approximately 20% of the world's oil and natural gas transport is severely impacted, potentially leading to the most serious energy crisis in decades, forcing nations to reassess their energy supply chains.
- Surging Oil Prices: Since the outbreak of war, crude oil prices have surged to around $100 per barrel, with estimates suggesting that WTI could rise to $140 per barrel in the event of prolonged attacks on Middle Eastern energy infrastructure, significantly boosting profit margins for oil companies.
- Strong Production from ExxonMobil: In 2025, ExxonMobil achieved an average production of 4.7 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, marking its best performance in over four decades, primarily driven by strategic assets in the Permian Basin and Guyana, showcasing the company's competitive edge amid the current crisis.
- Ongoing Buybacks and Dividends: ExxonMobil is repurchasing shares to offset those issued for its $59.5 billion acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources, and with a 43-year streak of dividend increases, the company demonstrates strong financial resilience in navigating oil price cycles, positioning itself for potential future acquisitions.
See More
Iran War Effects Widen, Pressuring Stock Markets
- Oil Price Surge Impact: The ongoing war in Iran has led to a 5.5% increase in West Texas Intermediate crude to $99.64 per barrel and a 4.2% rise in Brent crude to $112.57, causing the Dow and Nasdaq to drop 1.7% and 2.2%, respectively, highlighting the market's sensitivity to rising oil prices.
- Tech Stocks Hit Hard: News regarding Anthropic's AI model has severely impacted enterprise software stocks, with CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks seeing declines of 6% and over 9%, respectively, reflecting investor concerns about AI potentially replacing traditional software companies and exacerbating market anxiety.
- Meta Platforms Legal Challenges: Meta's stock fell nearly 11.5% after losing two social media addiction lawsuits, raising concerns about the company's short-term performance and long-term legal risks, although analysts believe the company has a strong legal position.
- Costco's Resilience: Despite overall market pressures, Costco's shares rose 1.2% last week, driven by increased customer traffic from higher gas prices and a new standalone gas station initiative, demonstrating the company's ability to find growth opportunities even in challenging conditions.
See More
Energy Executives Warn of Middle East War Impact
- Oil Supply Crisis: CEOs of major energy companies warned at S&P Global's CERAWeek that the Iran war has disrupted 8 million barrels of oil and 20% of the LNG market daily, potentially leading to fuel shortages in Asia and Europe, severely impacting the global economy.
- Market Reaction Lag: ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance noted that the market is not reflecting the scale of the supply disruption, with oil prices likely to remain high at $99.64 per barrel even after the conflict ends, as countries will need to restock depleted reserves.
- Geopolitical Risks Escalate: Kuwait Petroleum CEO Sheikh Nawaf al-Sabah stated that Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is not only an attack on Gulf nations but poses a threat to the global economy, potentially causing a domino effect throughout the supply chain.
- Fuel Shortages Spread: Shell CEO Wael Sawan highlighted that jet fuel and diesel prices have surged to $200 and $160 per barrel respectively, with the crisis expected to impact major Asian economies and reach Europe by April, prompting governments to stockpile and protect their supplies.
See More
Surging Oil Prices Propel ExxonMobil's Fortunes
- Oil Price Surge: Brent crude oil prices have skyrocketed from around $60 at the beginning of the year to over $100, highlighting ExxonMobil's enhanced profitability in a high oil price environment due to market turmoil from the Iran conflict.
- Increased Earnings Outlook: Last December, ExxonMobil raised its 2030 earnings and cash flow growth estimates by $5 billion, now expecting to generate an additional $25 billion in annual earnings and $35 billion in cash flow compared to 2024 levels.
- Strong Financial Position: With an industry-leading leverage ratio of 11%, ExxonMobil boasts the best balance sheet in the sector, planning to repurchase $20 billion in shares under reasonable market conditions, further solidifying its financial strength.
- Shareholder Return Potential: As oil prices rise, ExxonMobil is poised to increase its share repurchase rate, enhancing its ability to sustain dividend growth, which it has achieved for an industry-leading 43 consecutive years.
See More
Surging Oil Prices Provide Windfall for ExxonMobil
- Oil Price Surge: Brent crude oil prices have skyrocketed from around $60 at the beginning of the year to over $100, highlighting an unexpected profit opportunity for ExxonMobil (XOM), which is expected to significantly enhance its cash flow and profitability.
- 2030 Earnings Outlook: ExxonMobil raised its earnings and cash flow growth estimates for 2030 last December, projecting an additional $25 billion in annual earnings and $35 billion in cash flow compared to 2024 levels without changing commodity prices or capital spending, showcasing its strong financial resilience.
- Cash Flow Forecast: With Brent oil priced at $65, ExxonMobil anticipates generating $145 billion in cumulative surplus cash over the plan period, and the current high oil prices suggest an even larger surplus cash flow, further solidifying its financial strength.
- Share Buyback Plan: ExxonMobil plans to repurchase $20 billion in shares under reasonable market conditions, and with rising oil prices boosting cash flow, it may accelerate buybacks, supporting its 43 consecutive years of dividend growth and enhancing shareholder returns.
See More
