Rivian vs. Tesla: Key Considerations for EV Investors
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 6d ago
0mins
Should l Buy RIVN?
Source: Fool
- Rivian's Future Key: Rivian aims to launch the R2 model in 2026 targeting the mass market, which could lead to sustainable profitability if successful, but uncertainty looms if it fails.
- Tesla's Market Position: While Tesla is profitable and presents lower risks, CEO Elon Musk's statements and the shift towards humanoid robots may impact stock prices, introducing additional uncertainties.
- Valuation Issues: Tesla's price-to-earnings ratio stands at an astronomical 380x, significantly higher than other major automakers, indicating investors' high expectations for its future, but also posing substantial risks.
- Investment Advice: Currently, investing in Rivian carries high risks suitable for aggressive investors, while Tesla, though relatively safer, requires close monitoring of its future direction.
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Analyst Views on RIVN
Wall Street analysts forecast RIVN stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for RIVN is 17.78 USD with a low forecast of 10.00 USD and a high forecast of 25.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
18 Analyst Rating
8 Buy
7 Hold
3 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 14.760
Low
10.00
Averages
17.78
High
25.00
Current: 14.760
Low
10.00
Averages
17.78
High
25.00
About RIVN
Rivian Automotive, Inc. is an automotive manufacturer, which is engaged in developing and building category-defining electric vehicles (EVs) and accessories, as well as software and services that address the entire lifecycle of the vehicle. The Company’s R1 platform consists of two vehicles: the R1T, a two-row five-passenger pickup truck, and the R1S, a three-row seven-passenger sport utility vehicle (SUV). In the commercial market, the Company offers a Rivian Commercial Vehicle (RCV) platform. The vehicle on this platform is the Electric Delivery Van (EDV), designed and engineered by Rivian in collaboration with Amazon. The Company also offers FleetOS, its proprietary, end-to-end centralized fleet management subscription platform. It also offers a variety of services, including vehicle repair and maintenance, financing, insurance, software subscriptions and FleetOS solutions. Its value-added services include vehicle electrical architecture and software development services, and more.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Rivian Faces Challenges but Holds Great Potential
- Stock Price Plunge: Since going public in late 2021, Rivian's shares have plummeted by 89%, reflecting not only the challenges faced by the company but also prompting investors to reassess its market positioning and future outlook.
- Changing Industry Environment: The Trump administration's rollback of support for electric vehicles has led to a 36% year-over-year decline in U.S. EV sales; while Rivian is not directly affected, the overall market sentiment has negatively impacted its performance.
- Competitive Landscape Shift: Ford's pivot to hybrid models and cancellation of the fully electric F-150 Lightning, which directly competed with Rivian's R1T, provides Rivian with an opportunity to capture a larger market share amidst reduced competition.
- Future Growth Potential: Rivian's upcoming R2 SUV, priced at $45,000, is expected to attract a broader consumer base, while its software and services business, which soared over 300% in Q3, offers significant diversification and growth prospects for the future.
See More
Trump Announces Major Environmental Policy Change Impacting EV Market
- Market Reaction: Following the Trump administration's revocation of the greenhouse gas endangerment finding, shares of pure-play EV manufacturers like Tesla (TSLA), Rivian (RIVN), and Lucid (LCID) fell by as much as 5%, while traditional automakers such as General Motors (GM), Ford (F), and Stellantis (STLA) saw their stocks rise, with STLA increasing by 4% at its peak.
- Economic Impact: The EPA stated that the new final rule will save Americans over $1.3 trillion, primarily by reducing the costs of new vehicles and EV equipment purchases, potentially stimulating growth in the traditional automotive market.
- Policy Background: Trump claimed that the revoked scientific finding lacked factual and legal basis, asserting that it “severely damaged the American auto industry” and criticized existing EV promotion laws as “mandates,” which could lead to significant price increases for consumers.
- Consumer Impact: The EPA alleged that the repeal of the finding would result in average cost savings of over $2,400 per vehicle, although this could negatively affect EV sales, especially after the federal tax credit of $7,500 was eliminated last year.
See More
Rivian Reports Lower-Than-Expected Q4 Loss, Shares Surge 14%
- Earnings Beat: Rivian reported a Q4 2025 loss of $0.66 per share, better than the expected $0.67 loss, indicating improvements in cost management and operational efficiency, which led to a 14% surge in after-hours trading.
- Revenue Growth: The company generated $1.29 billion in revenue for the quarter, surpassing Wall Street's expectation of $1.27 billion, reflecting positive progress in market demand and sales strategies, thereby boosting investor confidence.
- Increased Delivery Outlook: Rivian anticipates delivering 62,000 to 67,000 vehicles in fiscal 2026, significantly up from 42,284 in 2025, showcasing confidence in the market potential of its upcoming R2 SUV, which is expected to enhance market share.
- Core Loss Guidance: The company expects an adjusted core loss of $1.80 to $2.10 billion for FY26, in line with the $2.06 billion loss recorded in 2025, indicating a need to maintain financial health and profitability amid expansion efforts.
See More
Rivian Exceeds Q4 Expectations, R2 Model Set to Drive Growth
- Delivery Target Increase: Rivian anticipates vehicle deliveries will reach between 62,000 and 67,000 units in 2026, representing a 47% to 59% increase compared to 2025, primarily driven by the launch of the R2 SUV, reflecting the company's confidence in future market demand.
- Cautious Financial Outlook: Despite the expected increase in deliveries, Rivian projects adjusted pre-tax losses for 2026 to be between $1.8 billion and $2.1 billion, indicating ongoing challenges to profitability during the launch of its new model.
- Improved Gross Profit: Rivian achieved a gross profit of $144 million in 2025, an improvement from 2024, largely due to its joint software and services venture with Volkswagen, demonstrating progress in cost control and revenue diversification.
- Strong Liquidity Position: As of the end of Q4, Rivian reported total liquidity of $6.59 billion, including nearly $6.1 billion in cash and short-term investments, providing essential funding for future technological advancements and profitability improvements.
See More
Rivian Reports Q4 Financial Highlights
- Revenue Performance: Rivian reported Q4 revenue of $1.29 billion, down from $1.73 billion year-over-year, yet exceeding the market expectation of $1.27 billion, indicating resilience in a challenging market environment.
- Decline in Automotive Revenue: Automotive revenue totaled $839 million, a 45% year-over-year decline primarily due to reduced regulatory credit sales, lower vehicle deliveries, and a decreased average sales price, reflecting weakened market demand.
- Growth in Software Services: Software and services revenue reached $447 million, up 109% year-over-year, highlighting the company's growth potential in non-automotive sectors, which may lay the groundwork for future revenue diversification.
- Future Outlook: Rivian anticipates delivering between 62,000 and 67,000 vehicles in 2026, with planned capital expenditures of $1.95 billion to $2.05 billion for the fiscal year, demonstrating confidence in future growth and strategic positioning.
See More
Rivian Targets Significant Increase in 2026 Vehicle Deliveries
- Delivery Target Increase: Rivian anticipates delivering between 62,000 and 67,000 electric vehicles in 2026, representing a 47% to 59% increase compared to 2025, indicating strong market demand optimism.
- Cautious Financial Outlook: Despite the increase in deliveries, Rivian expects adjusted losses of $1.8 billion to $2.1 billion in 2026, with capital expenditures between $1.95 billion and $2.05 billion, highlighting ongoing financial pressures during expansion.
- Fourth Quarter Performance Beats Expectations: Rivian reported a fourth-quarter loss of 54 cents per share, better than the expected 68 cents, with revenue of $1.29 billion exceeding the $1.26 billion forecast, showcasing improvements in cost control and revenue growth.
- Strong Gross Profit Performance: In 2025, Rivian achieved a gross profit of $144 million, primarily driven by its joint software and services venture with Volkswagen, despite a $432 million loss in its automotive business, reflecting potential improvements in profitability.
See More
Rivian Faces Challenges but Holds Great Potential
- Stock Price Plunge: Since going public in late 2021, Rivian's shares have plummeted by 89%, reflecting not only the challenges faced by the company but also prompting investors to reassess its market positioning and future outlook.
- Changing Industry Environment: The Trump administration's rollback of support for electric vehicles has led to a 36% year-over-year decline in U.S. EV sales; while Rivian is not directly affected, the overall market sentiment has negatively impacted its performance.
- Competitive Landscape Shift: Ford's pivot to hybrid models and cancellation of the fully electric F-150 Lightning, which directly competed with Rivian's R1T, provides Rivian with an opportunity to capture a larger market share amidst reduced competition.
- Future Growth Potential: Rivian's upcoming R2 SUV, priced at $45,000, is expected to attract a broader consumer base, while its software and services business, which soared over 300% in Q3, offers significant diversification and growth prospects for the future.
See More
Trump Announces Major Environmental Policy Change Impacting EV Market
- Market Reaction: Following the Trump administration's revocation of the greenhouse gas endangerment finding, shares of pure-play EV manufacturers like Tesla (TSLA), Rivian (RIVN), and Lucid (LCID) fell by as much as 5%, while traditional automakers such as General Motors (GM), Ford (F), and Stellantis (STLA) saw their stocks rise, with STLA increasing by 4% at its peak.
- Economic Impact: The EPA stated that the new final rule will save Americans over $1.3 trillion, primarily by reducing the costs of new vehicles and EV equipment purchases, potentially stimulating growth in the traditional automotive market.
- Policy Background: Trump claimed that the revoked scientific finding lacked factual and legal basis, asserting that it “severely damaged the American auto industry” and criticized existing EV promotion laws as “mandates,” which could lead to significant price increases for consumers.
- Consumer Impact: The EPA alleged that the repeal of the finding would result in average cost savings of over $2,400 per vehicle, although this could negatively affect EV sales, especially after the federal tax credit of $7,500 was eliminated last year.
See More
Rivian Reports Lower-Than-Expected Q4 Loss, Shares Surge 14%
- Earnings Beat: Rivian reported a Q4 2025 loss of $0.66 per share, better than the expected $0.67 loss, indicating improvements in cost management and operational efficiency, which led to a 14% surge in after-hours trading.
- Revenue Growth: The company generated $1.29 billion in revenue for the quarter, surpassing Wall Street's expectation of $1.27 billion, reflecting positive progress in market demand and sales strategies, thereby boosting investor confidence.
- Increased Delivery Outlook: Rivian anticipates delivering 62,000 to 67,000 vehicles in fiscal 2026, significantly up from 42,284 in 2025, showcasing confidence in the market potential of its upcoming R2 SUV, which is expected to enhance market share.
- Core Loss Guidance: The company expects an adjusted core loss of $1.80 to $2.10 billion for FY26, in line with the $2.06 billion loss recorded in 2025, indicating a need to maintain financial health and profitability amid expansion efforts.
See More
Rivian Exceeds Q4 Expectations, R2 Model Set to Drive Growth
- Delivery Target Increase: Rivian anticipates vehicle deliveries will reach between 62,000 and 67,000 units in 2026, representing a 47% to 59% increase compared to 2025, primarily driven by the launch of the R2 SUV, reflecting the company's confidence in future market demand.
- Cautious Financial Outlook: Despite the expected increase in deliveries, Rivian projects adjusted pre-tax losses for 2026 to be between $1.8 billion and $2.1 billion, indicating ongoing challenges to profitability during the launch of its new model.
- Improved Gross Profit: Rivian achieved a gross profit of $144 million in 2025, an improvement from 2024, largely due to its joint software and services venture with Volkswagen, demonstrating progress in cost control and revenue diversification.
- Strong Liquidity Position: As of the end of Q4, Rivian reported total liquidity of $6.59 billion, including nearly $6.1 billion in cash and short-term investments, providing essential funding for future technological advancements and profitability improvements.
See More
Rivian Reports Q4 Financial Highlights
- Revenue Performance: Rivian reported Q4 revenue of $1.29 billion, down from $1.73 billion year-over-year, yet exceeding the market expectation of $1.27 billion, indicating resilience in a challenging market environment.
- Decline in Automotive Revenue: Automotive revenue totaled $839 million, a 45% year-over-year decline primarily due to reduced regulatory credit sales, lower vehicle deliveries, and a decreased average sales price, reflecting weakened market demand.
- Growth in Software Services: Software and services revenue reached $447 million, up 109% year-over-year, highlighting the company's growth potential in non-automotive sectors, which may lay the groundwork for future revenue diversification.
- Future Outlook: Rivian anticipates delivering between 62,000 and 67,000 vehicles in 2026, with planned capital expenditures of $1.95 billion to $2.05 billion for the fiscal year, demonstrating confidence in future growth and strategic positioning.
See More
Rivian Targets Significant Increase in 2026 Vehicle Deliveries
- Delivery Target Increase: Rivian anticipates delivering between 62,000 and 67,000 electric vehicles in 2026, representing a 47% to 59% increase compared to 2025, indicating strong market demand optimism.
- Cautious Financial Outlook: Despite the increase in deliveries, Rivian expects adjusted losses of $1.8 billion to $2.1 billion in 2026, with capital expenditures between $1.95 billion and $2.05 billion, highlighting ongoing financial pressures during expansion.
- Fourth Quarter Performance Beats Expectations: Rivian reported a fourth-quarter loss of 54 cents per share, better than the expected 68 cents, with revenue of $1.29 billion exceeding the $1.26 billion forecast, showcasing improvements in cost control and revenue growth.
- Strong Gross Profit Performance: In 2025, Rivian achieved a gross profit of $144 million, primarily driven by its joint software and services venture with Volkswagen, despite a $432 million loss in its automotive business, reflecting potential improvements in profitability.
See More
