Hedgeye Bullish on Churchill Downs with 30-40% Upside Potential
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Apr 06 2026
0mins
Should l Buy CHDN?
Source: seekingalpha
- Investment Upgrade: Hedgeye has identified Churchill Downs (CHDN) as a new long idea, projecting a 30% to 40% upside potential, reflecting analysts' optimism about the company's future performance.
- Growth Industry Leverage: Analyst Sean Jenkins highlighted CHDN's significant leverage in faster-growing sectors such as CDRT, HRMs, and Wagering Services, indicating the company's ability to capitalize on industry trends.
- Asset Flexibility: The current asset base of CHDN offers various options, including asset sales and a potential inflection point in free cash flow, which will further enhance the company's financial position and market performance.
- Market Performance Expectations: Despite a 13% decline in stock price over the past year, analysts expect CHDN to significantly outperform in the coming quarters due to lower performance expectations, making it a focal point for investors.
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Analyst Views on CHDN
Wall Street analysts forecast CHDN stock price to rise
7 Analyst Rating
7 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 92.210
Low
125.00
Averages
137.33
High
146.00
Current: 92.210
Low
125.00
Averages
137.33
High
146.00
About CHDN
Churchill Downs Incorporated is a racing, online wagering and gaming entertainment company, which is anchored by its flagship event, the Kentucky Derby. The Company operates through three reportable segments: Live and Historical Racing, Wagering Services and Solutions, and Gaming. The Live and Historical Racing segment includes live and historical pari-mutuel racing at Churchill Downs Racetrack and its historical racing properties in Kentucky, Virginia and New Hampshire. The Wagering Services and Solutions segment includes TwinSpires, which is a retail and online sports betting business; United Tote Company, which manufactures and operates pari-mutuel wagering systems for racetracks, off-track betting facilities (OTBs), and other pari-mutuel wagering businesses; and Exacta Systems, LLC that provides central determinant system technology in historical racing machine (HRMs) across the country. The Gaming segment is engaged in the casino properties and associated racetrack facilities.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Thoroughbred Association Warns Against Prediction Markets for Horse Racing
- Legal Compliance Warning: The National Thoroughbred Racing Association has publicly warned that prediction markets should not offer bets on the Kentucky Derby or any other horse races in the U.S., arguing that such activities violate federal law and undermine the regulated pari-mutuel system, highlighting the importance of legal compliance.
- Industry Impact Analysis: NTRA CEO Tom Rooney emphasized that wagering on horse racing is governed by the Interstate Horseracing Act of 1978, not federal commodities laws, and any contracts bypassing this act would conflict with public interest, potentially leading to industry chaos.
- Revenue Diversion Risk: Allowing prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi to take Derby-related bets could significantly divert betting revenue away from the traditional pari-mutuel system, impacting racetracks, horsemen, and state tax streams, which rely on this income.
- Derby Week Betting Data: Last year, total Derby Day wagering reached $349 million, and total Derby Week handle hit $473.9 million, both all-time highs, demonstrating the significant economic impact of the event on related businesses such as Churchill Downs Incorporated.
See More
Investment Opportunities at Churchill Downs
- Kentucky Derby Impact: Churchill Downs hosts the Kentucky Derby, the longest-running sporting event in the U.S., with last year's handle reaching $473.9 million, setting a record that is expected to be surpassed in the coming years, thereby enhancing the company's influence in the betting market.
- Diversified Revenue Streams: In 2025, Churchill Downs reported revenues of $2.92 billion and EBITDA of $1.2 billion, with the Derby contributing only a small portion, indicating the stability and risk resilience of its business primarily driven by historical racing machines and regional casinos.
- Regional Casino Advantage: With 10 gaming venues across nine states, Churchill Downs mitigates the adverse effects of high gas prices, as these regional casinos are more accessible to customers, thereby enhancing customer loyalty and ensuring sustainable revenue growth.
- Capital Management Excellence: Since 2015, Churchill Downs has repurchased $2.1 billion in shares and has increased its dividend for 15 consecutive years, demonstrating strong capital management capabilities and commitment to shareholders, which further boosts investor confidence.
See More
Investment Opportunities in Churchill Downs Stock Ahead of Kentucky Derby
- Derby Event Impact: The Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs saw a record handle of $473.9 million in 2024, and with plans for track expansion, future Derby betting is expected to break records, significantly boosting company revenues.
- Diversified Revenue Streams: Churchill Downs generated $2.92 billion in revenue and $1.2 billion in EBITDA for 2025, with the Derby being a minor contributor, highlighting the strength of its historical racing machines and regional casinos.
- Regional Casino Advantage: With 10 gaming venues across nine states, Churchill Downs benefits from proximity to customers, mitigating the adverse effects of high gas prices and enhancing customer loyalty and market stability.
- Shareholder Return Strategy: The company has repurchased $2.1 billion in shares since 2015, and the recent dividend hike marks the 15th consecutive year of increases, demonstrating a strong commitment to shareholders and financial health.
See More
Reddit and Alta Equipment Group See Active Options Trading
- Reddit Options Surge: Reddit Inc (Ticker: RDDT) saw an options trading volume of 32,895 contracts today, representing approximately 3.3 million shares, which is about 72.6% of RDDT's average daily trading volume of 4.5 million shares over the past month, indicating strong market interest.
- High Volume Put Options: Within RDDT, the $121 strike put option has traded 3,133 contracts today, representing approximately 313,300 underlying shares, reflecting investor expectations of a potential decline in stock price, which could influence market sentiment.
- Alta Equipment Group Activity: Concurrently, Alta Equipment Group Inc (Ticker: ALTG) has recorded an options trading volume of 1,394 contracts today, equating to about 139,400 shares, which is approximately 72.4% of ALTG's average daily trading volume of 192,415 shares over the past month, showcasing its trading activity.
- High Volume Call Options: For ALTG, the $7.50 strike call option has seen 1,356 contracts traded today, representing around 135,600 underlying shares, indicating optimistic market sentiment regarding the stock's future price increase, potentially attracting more investor attention.
See More
Hedgeye Bullish on Churchill Downs with 30-40% Upside Potential
- Investment Upgrade: Hedgeye has identified Churchill Downs (CHDN) as a new long idea, projecting a 30% to 40% upside potential, reflecting analysts' optimism about the company's future performance.
- Growth Industry Leverage: Analyst Sean Jenkins highlighted CHDN's significant leverage in faster-growing sectors such as CDRT, HRMs, and Wagering Services, indicating the company's ability to capitalize on industry trends.
- Asset Flexibility: The current asset base of CHDN offers various options, including asset sales and a potential inflection point in free cash flow, which will further enhance the company's financial position and market performance.
- Market Performance Expectations: Despite a 13% decline in stock price over the past year, analysts expect CHDN to significantly outperform in the coming quarters due to lower performance expectations, making it a focal point for investors.
See More
Kentucky Court Rules HISA Fee Methodology Unlawful
- Court Ruling: The U.S. District Court for the Western District of Kentucky ruled that the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority (HISA) acted arbitrarily and capriciously, confirming that its purse-weighted fee methodology and related collection efforts for 2025 assessments are unlawful, directly impacting HISA's fee collection practices.
- Fee Dispute: Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) and the New York Racing Association filed a lawsuit against HISA in late 2024, arguing that HISA's fee formula was inconsistent with the statute and should be based on racing starts, reflecting industry dissatisfaction with HISA's management.
- Threat of Unpaid Fees: HISA had sought approximately $2.4 million in unpaid assessments plus interest from Churchill Downs and its affiliated tracks, threatening that nonpayment could limit or suspend their ability to simulcast races to out-of-state wagering outlets, escalating tensions within the industry.
- CEO Statement: Churchill Downs CEO Bill Carstanjen stated that the court's decision indicates ongoing fiscal mismanagement by HISA, emphasizing the necessity of legal action and highlighting that this ruling will help refocus efforts on the joint mission of equine health and safety.
See More
Thoroughbred Association Warns Against Prediction Markets for Horse Racing
- Legal Compliance Warning: The National Thoroughbred Racing Association has publicly warned that prediction markets should not offer bets on the Kentucky Derby or any other horse races in the U.S., arguing that such activities violate federal law and undermine the regulated pari-mutuel system, highlighting the importance of legal compliance.
- Industry Impact Analysis: NTRA CEO Tom Rooney emphasized that wagering on horse racing is governed by the Interstate Horseracing Act of 1978, not federal commodities laws, and any contracts bypassing this act would conflict with public interest, potentially leading to industry chaos.
- Revenue Diversion Risk: Allowing prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi to take Derby-related bets could significantly divert betting revenue away from the traditional pari-mutuel system, impacting racetracks, horsemen, and state tax streams, which rely on this income.
- Derby Week Betting Data: Last year, total Derby Day wagering reached $349 million, and total Derby Week handle hit $473.9 million, both all-time highs, demonstrating the significant economic impact of the event on related businesses such as Churchill Downs Incorporated.
See More
Investment Opportunities at Churchill Downs
- Kentucky Derby Impact: Churchill Downs hosts the Kentucky Derby, the longest-running sporting event in the U.S., with last year's handle reaching $473.9 million, setting a record that is expected to be surpassed in the coming years, thereby enhancing the company's influence in the betting market.
- Diversified Revenue Streams: In 2025, Churchill Downs reported revenues of $2.92 billion and EBITDA of $1.2 billion, with the Derby contributing only a small portion, indicating the stability and risk resilience of its business primarily driven by historical racing machines and regional casinos.
- Regional Casino Advantage: With 10 gaming venues across nine states, Churchill Downs mitigates the adverse effects of high gas prices, as these regional casinos are more accessible to customers, thereby enhancing customer loyalty and ensuring sustainable revenue growth.
- Capital Management Excellence: Since 2015, Churchill Downs has repurchased $2.1 billion in shares and has increased its dividend for 15 consecutive years, demonstrating strong capital management capabilities and commitment to shareholders, which further boosts investor confidence.
See More
Investment Opportunities in Churchill Downs Stock Ahead of Kentucky Derby
- Derby Event Impact: The Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs saw a record handle of $473.9 million in 2024, and with plans for track expansion, future Derby betting is expected to break records, significantly boosting company revenues.
- Diversified Revenue Streams: Churchill Downs generated $2.92 billion in revenue and $1.2 billion in EBITDA for 2025, with the Derby being a minor contributor, highlighting the strength of its historical racing machines and regional casinos.
- Regional Casino Advantage: With 10 gaming venues across nine states, Churchill Downs benefits from proximity to customers, mitigating the adverse effects of high gas prices and enhancing customer loyalty and market stability.
- Shareholder Return Strategy: The company has repurchased $2.1 billion in shares since 2015, and the recent dividend hike marks the 15th consecutive year of increases, demonstrating a strong commitment to shareholders and financial health.
See More
Reddit and Alta Equipment Group See Active Options Trading
- Reddit Options Surge: Reddit Inc (Ticker: RDDT) saw an options trading volume of 32,895 contracts today, representing approximately 3.3 million shares, which is about 72.6% of RDDT's average daily trading volume of 4.5 million shares over the past month, indicating strong market interest.
- High Volume Put Options: Within RDDT, the $121 strike put option has traded 3,133 contracts today, representing approximately 313,300 underlying shares, reflecting investor expectations of a potential decline in stock price, which could influence market sentiment.
- Alta Equipment Group Activity: Concurrently, Alta Equipment Group Inc (Ticker: ALTG) has recorded an options trading volume of 1,394 contracts today, equating to about 139,400 shares, which is approximately 72.4% of ALTG's average daily trading volume of 192,415 shares over the past month, showcasing its trading activity.
- High Volume Call Options: For ALTG, the $7.50 strike call option has seen 1,356 contracts traded today, representing around 135,600 underlying shares, indicating optimistic market sentiment regarding the stock's future price increase, potentially attracting more investor attention.
See More
Hedgeye Bullish on Churchill Downs with 30-40% Upside Potential
- Investment Upgrade: Hedgeye has identified Churchill Downs (CHDN) as a new long idea, projecting a 30% to 40% upside potential, reflecting analysts' optimism about the company's future performance.
- Growth Industry Leverage: Analyst Sean Jenkins highlighted CHDN's significant leverage in faster-growing sectors such as CDRT, HRMs, and Wagering Services, indicating the company's ability to capitalize on industry trends.
- Asset Flexibility: The current asset base of CHDN offers various options, including asset sales and a potential inflection point in free cash flow, which will further enhance the company's financial position and market performance.
- Market Performance Expectations: Despite a 13% decline in stock price over the past year, analysts expect CHDN to significantly outperform in the coming quarters due to lower performance expectations, making it a focal point for investors.
See More
Kentucky Court Rules HISA Fee Methodology Unlawful
- Court Ruling: The U.S. District Court for the Western District of Kentucky ruled that the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority (HISA) acted arbitrarily and capriciously, confirming that its purse-weighted fee methodology and related collection efforts for 2025 assessments are unlawful, directly impacting HISA's fee collection practices.
- Fee Dispute: Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) and the New York Racing Association filed a lawsuit against HISA in late 2024, arguing that HISA's fee formula was inconsistent with the statute and should be based on racing starts, reflecting industry dissatisfaction with HISA's management.
- Threat of Unpaid Fees: HISA had sought approximately $2.4 million in unpaid assessments plus interest from Churchill Downs and its affiliated tracks, threatening that nonpayment could limit or suspend their ability to simulcast races to out-of-state wagering outlets, escalating tensions within the industry.
- CEO Statement: Churchill Downs CEO Bill Carstanjen stated that the court's decision indicates ongoing fiscal mismanagement by HISA, emphasizing the necessity of legal action and highlighting that this ruling will help refocus efforts on the joint mission of equine health and safety.
See More
