Stock Price & Analysis

Based on the provided data and current market conditions, here's a concise analysis for CHDN stock:

Technical Analysis

• Current price: $114.77 (post-market) [Real-time data]
• Today's performance: -1.80% during regular hours, with minimal post-market movement (-0.04%)
• RSI-14 at 25.94 indicates oversold conditions
• MACD shows bearish momentum with -2.81 reading
• Stochastic RSI (14,14,3,3) at 8.63 suggests extremely oversold conditions

Fundamental Snapshot

• Strong financial performance in FY2022:
  • Revenue: $1.81B
  • Net Income: $439.4M
  • Net Margin: 24.35%
  • ROE: 102.69%

Recent News Impact

• Minnesota sports betting bill's failure to advance out of committee could affect near-term growth prospects in the gaming sector
• Options market showing mixed sentiment with 59% probability for both $115 puts and $120 calls expiring worthless by April 17th

Fibonacci Levels

• Current price ($114.77) is below S1 support ($115.92)
• Next major support at S2 ($113.26)
• Key resistance at R1 ($124.53)

Recommendation: SELL

• Technical indicators show bearish momentum
• Price trading below key support levels
• High debt-to-equity ratio (838.04%) presents significant risk
• Wait for technical indicators to show reversal signs before considering entry

Based on the provided data and market context, here's the price prediction for CHDN stock in 2025:

Churchill Downs (CHDN) is expected to trade around $125-130 by end of 2025, representing a potential upside of 8-13% from current levels. The projection is supported by technical analysis showing strong support at $115 level and the stock's historical trading pattern maintaining above its 200-day moving average of $135.20. However, near-term headwinds from options market sentiment suggests cautious positioning with 59% probability of price staying below $120 through April 2025.

The stock is currently trading at $114.77 in post-market, showing signs of consolidation after recent pullback. The Fibonacci support levels at $115.92 and $113.26 should provide strong technical floors for price recovery.

The S1 support level for CHDN Stock is $114.44 ,The R1 resistant level for CHDN Stock is $123.96.

As of the end of day on 2025-02-27, the price of CHDN Stock was $117.27.

The target price for CHDN Stock according to analyst rating is 163.17, with the highest price target at 175.00 and the lowest at 148.00. Analysts have a Strong Buy rating on CHDN Stock overall.

The market cap of CHDN is $8.6B.

Based on the provided data and current market conditions, let's analyze whether CHDN is overvalued through a comprehensive analysis:

Technical Analysis

The stock is showing significant weakness with RSI at 25.94 and stochastic RSI at 8.63, indicating oversold conditions. The stock has broken below its 20-day moving average of $122.00 and is trading near the lower Bollinger Band at $113.81, suggesting potential technical support around this level.

Valuation Metrics

Current valuation metrics compared to historical levels:

Metric	2023	2024
P/E	24.61	20.21
EV/EBITDA	19.32	14.87
P/S	4.17	3.28
P/B	11.25	N/A

Fundamental Analysis

The company shows:

• Strong revenue growth of 36% YoY in 2023
• Healthy gross margin expansion to 32.96%
• However, net margin declined to 16.95% from 24.35%
• Current ratio of 0.53 indicates potential liquidity concerns

Analyst Consensus

Recent analyst actions show:

• Price target lowered to $161 from $164 at Stifel
• Price target lowered to $158 from $165 at Wells Fargo
• Consensus price target of $162.00 represents 41% upside potential

Conclusion

CHDN is NOT overvalued at current levels based on:

1. Trading at 20.21x P/E, below its 2023 multiple of 24.61x
2. EV/EBITDA of 14.87x shows significant compression from 19.32x
3. Strong analyst support with consensus upside of 41%
4. Recent price weakness has created an attractive entry point
5. Technical indicators suggest oversold conditions ripe for reversal

Churchill Downs Incorporated is a racing, online wagering and gaming entertainment company, which is anchored by its flagship event, the Kentucky Derby. The Company owns and operates 14 live and historical racing entertainment venues in three states and nine casino gaming properties in eight states and 13 retail sportsbooks. It also operates an online horse racing wagering platform in the United States. Its segments include Live and Historical Racing, TwinSpires, and Gaming. Live and Historical Racing segment includes live and historical pari-mutuel racing at Churchill Downs Racetrack and its historical racing properties in Kentucky, Virginia and New Hampshire. The TwinSpires segment includes the TwinSpires Horse Racing, the TwinSpires Sports and Casino and the United Tote businesses. It also provides technology to support historical horse racing operations in Kentucky, Wyoming and New Hampshire. Gaming segment is engaged in the casino properties and associated racetrack facilities.

Based on the provided data and market research, here is the 2030 price prediction for Churchill Downs (CHDN) stock:

CHDN stock is projected to reach $192-198 by 2030, representing a 67-72% increase from current levels, driven by continued expansion in gaming operations and strong cash flow generation from racing business. According to market analysis, the company's strategic focus on digital gaming platforms and property acquisitions will be key growth catalysts. The valuation multiple expansion potential remains solid given CHDN's proven ability to generate consistent returns through economic cycles.

CHDN has a total of 5660 employees.