CHDN Valuation

Churchill Downs Inc

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102.630

+0.05(0.049%)1D

Overview
Forecast
Valuation
Earnings

CHDN Relative Valuation

CHDN's fair value is calculated using relative valuation, based on historical P/E and P/S ranges and their premiums/discounts relative to a competitor average, adjusted by weights. If the market price exceeds this fair value range, CHDN is overvalued; if below, it's undervalued.

Historical Valuation

Churchill Downs Inc (CHDN) is now in the Undervalued zone, suggesting that its current forward PE ratio of 15.32 is considered Undervalued compared with the five-year average of 23.23. The fair price of Churchill Downs Inc (CHDN) is between 194.38 to 254.41 according to relative valuation methord. Compared to the current price of 102.58 USD , Churchill Downs Inc is Undervalued By 47.23%.

Relative Value

Fair Zone

194.38-254.41

Current Price：102.58

47.23%

Undervalued

15.32

Trailing

Forward

9.99

EV/EBITDA

Churchill Downs Inc. (CHDN) has a current EV/EBITDA of 9.99. The 5-year average EV/EBITDA is 12.82. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below 8.89, Undervalued between 8.89 and 10.86, Fairly Valued between 14.78 and 10.86, Overvalued between 14.78 and 16.74, and Strongly Overvalued above 16.74. The current Forward EV/EBITDA of 9.99 falls within the Undervalued range.

15.03

EV/EBIT

Churchill Downs Inc. (CHDN) has a current EV/EBIT of 15.03. The 5-year average EV/EBIT is 20.25. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below 11.29, Undervalued between 11.29 and 15.77, Fairly Valued between 24.74 and 15.77, Overvalued between 24.74 and 29.22, and Strongly Overvalued above 29.22. The current Forward EV/EBIT of 15.03 falls within the Undervalued range.

2.43

Churchill Downs Inc. (CHDN) has a current PS of 2.43. The 5-year average PS is 3.89. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below 2.22, Undervalued between 2.22 and 3.06, Fairly Valued between 4.72 and 3.06, Overvalued between 4.72 and 5.56, and Strongly Overvalued above 5.56. The current Forward PS of 2.43 falls within the Undervalued range.

9.46

P/OCF

Churchill Downs Inc. (CHDN) has a current P/OCF of 9.46. The 5-year average P/OCF is 14.53. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below 5.85, Undervalued between 5.85 and 10.19, Fairly Valued between 18.87 and 10.19, Overvalued between 18.87 and 23.21, and Strongly Overvalued above 23.21. The current Forward P/OCF of 9.46 falls within the Undervalued range.

11.65

P/FCF

Churchill Downs Inc. (CHDN) has a current P/FCF of 11.65. The 5-year average P/FCF is -125.84. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below -1194.66, Undervalued between -1194.66 and -660.25, Fairly Valued between 408.57 and -660.25, Overvalued between 408.57 and 942.99, and Strongly Overvalued above 942.99. The current Forward P/FCF of 11.65 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.

Churchill Downs Inc (CHDN) has a current Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio of 6.91. Compared to its 3-year average P/B ratio of 10.85 , the current P/B ratio is approximately -36.27% higher. Relative to its 5-year average P/B ratio of 16.62, the current P/B ratio is about -58.40% higher. Churchill Downs Inc (CHDN) has a Forward Free Cash Flow (FCF) yield of approximately 5.04%. Compared to its 3-year average FCF yield of 1.20%, the current FCF yield is approximately 319.77% lower. Relative to its 5-year average FCF yield of 1.19% , the current FCF yield is about 324.37% lower.

6.91

P/B

Median3y

10.85

Median5y

16.62

5.04

FCF Yield

Median3y

1.20

Median5y

1.19

Competitors Valuation Multiple

The average P/S ratio for CHDN's competitors is 2.58, providing a benchmark for relative valuation. Churchill Downs Inc Corp (CHDN) exhibits a P/S ratio of 2.43, which is -5.78% above the industry average. Given its robust revenue growth of 4.91%, this premium appears unsustainable.

P/S

P/E

EV/EBITDA

EV/EBIT

P/S

Revenue Growth

Market Cap

Madison Square Garden Sports Corp

Manchester United PLC

Cinemark Holdings Inc

United Parks & Resorts Inc

Atlanta Braves Holdings Inc

Loss

10.45%

2.92B

Performance Decomposition

Market capitalization of CHDN decreased by 25.97% over the past 1 year. The primary factor behind the change was an increase in Revenue Growth from 890.70M to 934.40M.

The secondary factor is the Margin Expansion, contributed -1.31%to the performance.

Overall, the performance of CHDN in the past 1 year is driven by Revenue Growth. Which is more sustainable.

4.91%

890.70M → 934.40M

Revenue Growth

-1.31%

23.60 → 23.29

Margin Expansion

-29.57%

25.06 → 17.65

P/E Change

-25.97%