Should You Buy Churchill Downs Inc (CHDN) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Buy
Latest Price
97.930
1 Day change
-0.98%
52 Week Range
126.600
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
Buy CHDN now for a long-term position. The stock is technically oversold near key support (~$97.5–$100.5) and analyst sentiment/targets remain strongly positive into the next earnings catalyst (2026-02-25). While the latest quarter showed weaker profitability, the current setup favors initiating a position now rather than waiting for a “perfect” entry.
Technical Analysis
CHDN is in a short-term downtrend but looks stretched to the downside and near support. RSI(6)=16.49 signals deeply oversold conditions, which often precede a bounce/mean reversion. MACD histogram is negative (-0.931) but negatively contracting, indicating bearish momentum is weakening. Price ($99.66) is sitting just below S1 (~$100.44) and above S2 (~$97.48), an area that often acts as a buy zone for long-term investors if it holds. Near-term resistance is around the pivot $105.23 and then $110.02; a move back above ~$105 would improve trend confirmation.
Options Data
Bearish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Options positioning is mixed: Open Interest Put/Call of 1.41 suggests more outstanding protective/ bearish positioning (cautious sentiment). However, the Option Volume Put/Call of 0.25 shows call volume dominating today, which is typically a near-term bullish/tactical tilt. Implied volatility is elevated (IV percentile 90) and 30D IV (~38.09) is close to historical volatility (~39.01), implying the market is pricing meaningful movement (often around catalysts like earnings). Overall: cautious hedging in the background, but more bullish activity in current-day flow.
Technical Summary
Sell
9
Buy
6
Positive Catalysts
3) Analyst targets were raised repeatedly (recently $125–$145), and Wells Fargo added CHDN to a Tactical Ideas list, indicating expectation of positive near-term setup. 4) Business drivers referenced by analysts include easier Derby comparisons and ramp of newer properties (The Rose and Henrico), which could improve forward growth narrative.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
1) Profitability deterioration in the latest reported quarter: net income and EPS fell sharply YoY, which can pressure the multiple if it persists. 2) Hedge funds are selling (selling amount up 115.46% over the last quarter), which is a meaningful sentiment/flow headwind. 3) Options open interest skew (put-heavy) implies investors are paying for protection, suggesting ongoing uncertainty. 4) No supportive news flow in the past week—near-term price action may remain technically-driven until earnings.
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue grew to $683.0M (+8.67% YoY), showing continued top-line expansion. However, profitability weakened materially: Net Income $37.9M (-41.15% YoY) and EPS $0.53 (-38.37% YoY). Gross margin improved to 30.63 (+1.26% YoY), which is constructive, but the large EPS decline indicates higher costs/other expenses below gross margin and/or other non-operating impacts. Net takeaway: growth is still present, but earnings quality is the key issue to watch into the next earnings report.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent analyst trend is clearly positive: multiple firms raised price targets while maintaining Buy/Overweight-style ratings (JPMorgan to $131, BofA to $125, Wells Fargo to $125 and placed on Tactical Ideas, Jefferies to $145). Wall Street pros: view CHDN as attractively valued with potential catalysts (easier comps, property ramp, and improving trends) and see upside to estimates. Wall Street cons: sector commentary suggests investors must be selective, consumer demand is a worry across gaming/lodging, and CHDN’s recent profitability drop raises execution risk despite revenue growth.
Wall Street analysts forecast CHDN stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CHDN is 127.51 USD with a low forecast of 103.68 USD and a high forecast of 145 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
9 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast CHDN stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CHDN is 127.51 USD with a low forecast of 103.68 USD and a high forecast of 145 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
9 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 98.900
Low
103.68
Averages
127.51
High
145
Current: 98.900
Low
103.68
Averages
127.51
High
145
JPMorgan
Overweight
maintain
$130 -> $131
AI Analysis
2026-01-23
Reason
JPMorgan
Price Target
$130 -> $131
AI Analysis
2026-01-23
maintain
Overweight
Reason
JPMorgan raised the firm's price target on Churchill Downs to $131 from $130 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the gaming space as part of a Q4 earnings preview. Gaming stocks "are carrying a lot of baggage and negativity," so investors should be selective, the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan believes digital is the segment with the greatest opportunity for earnings beats.
BofA
Buy
maintain
$120 -> $125
2026-01-05
Reason
BofA
Price Target
$120 -> $125
2026-01-05
maintain
Buy
Reason
BofA raised the firm's price target on Churchill Downs to $125 from $120 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The Gaming and Lodging group "appears to be at a crossroads" to start 2026 as the year offers easy comps, OBBB refunds and stimulus, but also still has a stretched consumer after years of inflation, the analyst tells investors. Negative estimate revisions trumped low valuations in 2024 and 2025 and the firm is "fearful this continues in 2026," the analyst added in a note on the group.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for CHDN
