Giverny Capital's Q1 2026 Portfolio Underperformance and New Investments
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1 day ago
0mins
Source: seekingalpha
- Performance Analysis: Giverny Capital Asset Management's portfolio returned 6.9% in Q1 2026, underperforming against the S&P 500 Index, which declined by 4.3%, indicating relative weakness that may affect investor confidence in the fund's management.
- New Investment Position: In Q1 2026, Giverny Capital initiated a new position in American Express (NYSE:AXP), reflecting optimism about the company's growth potential, particularly following its acquisition of Hypercard, which enhances its expertise in AI and expense management.
- Holding Adjustments: During the same period, Giverny Capital fully exited its position in Ametek (NYSE:AME), suggesting a cautious outlook on the company's prospects or a strategic reallocation of funds to pursue higher returns.
- Market Dynamics: Key deals this week include American Express, Otis, Vertiv, and Wipro, highlighting market interest in these companies, which may influence investor decisions and overall market sentiment.
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Analyst Views on AXP
Wall Street analysts forecast AXP stock price to rise
21 Analyst Rating
8 Buy
12 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 332.900
Low
280.00
Averages
379.06
High
425.00
Current: 332.900
Low
280.00
Averages
379.06
High
425.00
About AXP
American Express Company is a global payments and premium lifestyle brand powered by technology. Its card-issuing, merchant-acquiring and card network businesses offer products and services to a broad range of customers, including consumers, small businesses, mid-sized companies and large corporations around the world. Its range of products and services includes credit and charge cards and complementary products and services, including travel, dining, lifestyle and expense management products and services; banking and other payment and financing products and services, including deposits and non-card lending; merchant acquisition and processing, servicing and settlement, fraud prevention, and point-of-sale marketing and information products and services, and network services. These products and services are offered through various channels, including mobile and online applications, affiliate marketing, customer referral programs, third-party service providers, and business partners.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Investor Reaction: The drop in share price indicates a negative reaction from investors to the company's performance metrics.
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- Exclusive Member Services: The American Express Card Member Lounge at Acrisure Stadium will offer Platinum Card Members customized merchandise, curated food and beverages, and special guest interactions with NFL players, which is expected to boost customer loyalty and satisfaction.
- Rich Draft Activities: Within the NFL Draft Experience, fans can create personalized 'Draft Fan Profiles' and engage in live activities, likely increasing brand interaction with consumers and solidifying market presence.
- Global Promotion Strategy: American Express plans to enhance brand exposure during the NFL Draft through social media and advertising, while offering limited-time discounts at NFLShop.com for Card Members, aiming to expand its customer base and increase sales.
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- Definition of Moat: The term 'moat', popularized by renowned investor Warren Buffett, highlights a company's competitive advantage that effectively shields it from competitors, particularly during economic fluctuations where such advantages lead to superior performance.
- Visa's Market Dominance: Visa, alongside Mastercard, controls approximately 77% of the market share, with Visa holding a significant 52%, establishing a strong competitive edge in the payment network sector that ensures long-term stable returns.
- Low-Risk Business Model: Visa operates without credit risk, generating fees solely from network transactions, with an expected $17 trillion flowing through its network by 2025, which translates into substantial revenue streams for the company.
- Investment Opportunity: Despite a year-to-date decline of about 11% in Visa's stock, its forward P/E ratio of 24, combined with an average annual return of approximately 14% over the past decade, positions the current stock price as relatively cheap, making it an attractive buy for investors.
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- Market Dominance: Visa holds approximately 52% of the U.S. credit card market, forming a duopoly with Mastercard and controlling 77% of the market, demonstrating its strong competitive moat that ensures stability during economic fluctuations.
- Asset-Light Model: Visa's business model is virtually free of credit risk, primarily generating fees from network transactions, with an expected transaction volume of $17 trillion by 2025, allowing the company to remain profitable even in tough economic times.
- Stable Long-Term Returns: Over the past decade, Visa has achieved an average annual return of about 14%, and despite an 11% decline in stock price this year, its forward P/E ratio of 24 indicates that the stock is relatively cheap and suitable for long-term investors.
- Investment in Technology: Visa generates strong cash flow, enabling continuous investment in technology system upgrades, ensuring its leading position in the payment network while maintaining high profit margins, further solidifying its market competitiveness.
See More
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- Strong Earnings Performance: American Express reported Q1 revenue of $18.9 billion, an 11.4% increase, and earnings per share of $4.28, up 17.6%, both exceeding analyst expectations and demonstrating robust market performance.
- Guidance Unchanged: Despite the strong results, management only reiterated prior full-year guidance, forecasting revenue growth of 9% to 10% and earnings per share between $17.30 and $17.90, failing to meet investor expectations for an upward revision.
- Increased Investment Plans: CEO Steve Squeri noted plans to boost marketing and technology investments to capitalize on long-term growth opportunities, which may have disappointed investors hoping for increased share repurchases or dividend hikes.
- External Risk Factors: The uncertainty surrounding the situation in Iran has led to rising oil prices, which, while potentially increasing spending by American Express cardholders on gasoline, are generally viewed as a threat to the overall economy, thus impacting financial stocks like Amex.
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- Surge in Orders: The company reported a 24% year-over-year increase in orders to $2.5 billion, signaling strong market demand and effective order fulfillment capabilities, which further boosts investor confidence in Dover's future performance.
- Improved Profitability: Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) reached $2.28, beating expectations by 2 cents and reflecting an 11.2% increase from the previous year, showcasing the company's success in cost control and operational efficiency.
- Optimistic Market Outlook: Dover anticipates over $1 billion in revenue by 2026 from AI and power infrastructure applications, representing 11.5% of total revenue, highlighting the company's strategic positioning and growth potential in emerging markets.
See More
AMERICAN EXPRESS STOCK TURNS NEGATIVE, FALLING 1.4% POST-RESULTS AFTER PREMARKET GAIN
- Market Performance: American Express shares experienced a decline of 1.4% following the release of their latest financial results.
- Investor Reaction: The drop in share price indicates a negative reaction from investors to the company's performance metrics.
See More
American Express Becomes Official Payments Partner of NFL
- Enhanced Fan Experience: As the official payments partner for the 2026 NFL Draft, American Express is set to reshape fan experiences in Pittsburgh, attracting numerous Card Members and fans, thereby enhancing brand visibility and engagement.
- Exclusive Member Services: The American Express Card Member Lounge at Acrisure Stadium will offer Platinum Card Members customized merchandise, curated food and beverages, and special guest interactions with NFL players, which is expected to boost customer loyalty and satisfaction.
- Rich Draft Activities: Within the NFL Draft Experience, fans can create personalized 'Draft Fan Profiles' and engage in live activities, likely increasing brand interaction with consumers and solidifying market presence.
- Global Promotion Strategy: American Express plans to enhance brand exposure during the NFL Draft through social media and advertising, while offering limited-time discounts at NFLShop.com for Card Members, aiming to expand its customer base and increase sales.
See More
Visa's Competitive Advantage and Market Performance
- Definition of Moat: The term 'moat', popularized by renowned investor Warren Buffett, highlights a company's competitive advantage that effectively shields it from competitors, particularly during economic fluctuations where such advantages lead to superior performance.
- Visa's Market Dominance: Visa, alongside Mastercard, controls approximately 77% of the market share, with Visa holding a significant 52%, establishing a strong competitive edge in the payment network sector that ensures long-term stable returns.
- Low-Risk Business Model: Visa operates without credit risk, generating fees solely from network transactions, with an expected $17 trillion flowing through its network by 2025, which translates into substantial revenue streams for the company.
- Investment Opportunity: Despite a year-to-date decline of about 11% in Visa's stock, its forward P/E ratio of 24, combined with an average annual return of approximately 14% over the past decade, positions the current stock price as relatively cheap, making it an attractive buy for investors.
See More
Visa's Competitive Advantage and Market Performance
- Market Dominance: Visa holds approximately 52% of the U.S. credit card market, forming a duopoly with Mastercard and controlling 77% of the market, demonstrating its strong competitive moat that ensures stability during economic fluctuations.
- Asset-Light Model: Visa's business model is virtually free of credit risk, primarily generating fees from network transactions, with an expected transaction volume of $17 trillion by 2025, allowing the company to remain profitable even in tough economic times.
- Stable Long-Term Returns: Over the past decade, Visa has achieved an average annual return of about 14%, and despite an 11% decline in stock price this year, its forward P/E ratio of 24 indicates that the stock is relatively cheap and suitable for long-term investors.
- Investment in Technology: Visa generates strong cash flow, enabling continuous investment in technology system upgrades, ensuring its leading position in the payment network while maintaining high profit margins, further solidifying its market competitiveness.
See More
American Express Reports Strong Q1 Earnings Amid Stock Decline
- Strong Earnings Performance: American Express reported Q1 revenue of $18.9 billion, an 11.4% increase, and earnings per share of $4.28, up 17.6%, both exceeding analyst expectations and demonstrating robust market performance.
- Guidance Unchanged: Despite the strong results, management only reiterated prior full-year guidance, forecasting revenue growth of 9% to 10% and earnings per share between $17.30 and $17.90, failing to meet investor expectations for an upward revision.
- Increased Investment Plans: CEO Steve Squeri noted plans to boost marketing and technology investments to capitalize on long-term growth opportunities, which may have disappointed investors hoping for increased share repurchases or dividend hikes.
- External Risk Factors: The uncertainty surrounding the situation in Iran has led to rising oil prices, which, while potentially increasing spending by American Express cardholders on gasoline, are generally viewed as a threat to the overall economy, thus impacting financial stocks like Amex.
See More
Dover Reports Strong Q1 Results with Double-Digit Earnings Growth
- Significant Revenue Growth: Dover's Q1 revenue rose 10% year-over-year to $2.05 billion, exceeding the LSEG consensus of $2 billion, indicating strong market performance and robust customer demand.
- Surge in Orders: The company reported a 24% year-over-year increase in orders to $2.5 billion, signaling strong market demand and effective order fulfillment capabilities, which further boosts investor confidence in Dover's future performance.
- Improved Profitability: Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) reached $2.28, beating expectations by 2 cents and reflecting an 11.2% increase from the previous year, showcasing the company's success in cost control and operational efficiency.
- Optimistic Market Outlook: Dover anticipates over $1 billion in revenue by 2026 from AI and power infrastructure applications, representing 11.5% of total revenue, highlighting the company's strategic positioning and growth potential in emerging markets.
See More
