First-Party Fraud in Canada Surges 31% Year-Over-Year
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 5 days ago
0mins
Should l Buy EFX?
Source: Newsfilter
- Fraud Rate Increase: Equifax Canada's latest data reveals a 31% year-over-year rise in first-party fraud rates from Q4 2024 to Q4 2025, indicating a troubling trend of consumers manipulating their financial information, particularly pronounced in Ontario and Alberta.
- Credit Card Fraud Surge: First-party credit card fraud nearly doubled, increasing from 0.08% in Q4 2024 to 0.15% in Q4 2025, with 77% of cases involving applicants submitting contradictory or inconsistent data, leading to credit losses as high as $123 million CAD.
- Banking and Deposit Fraud Shift: In banking and deposits, first-party fraud rates rose from 0.51% to 0.68%, with cases involving falsified financial information skyrocketing from 1.5% to 21%, highlighting the evolving nature of fraud tactics and increasing risks.
- Mortgage and Auto Loan Fraud: Despite a decline in mortgage and auto loan fraud rates by 12.5% and 19.4% respectively, potential losses remain significant, with consumers aged 26 to 45 accounting for most suspected fraudulent mortgage applications, indicating a high risk among younger demographics.
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Analyst Views on EFX
Wall Street analysts forecast EFX stock price to rise
14 Analyst Rating
10 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 196.220
Low
195.00
Averages
232.08
High
283.00
Current: 196.220
Low
195.00
Averages
232.08
High
283.00
About EFX
Equifax Inc. is a global data, analytics, and technology company. The Company is engaged in helping financial institutions, companies, employers, and government agencies make critical decisions. The Company’s Workforce Solutions segment provides services enabling customers to verify income, employment, educational history, criminal justice data, healthcare professional licensure and sanctions of people in the United States. The Company’s U.S. Information Solutions (USIS) segment provides consumer and commercial information solutions to businesses in the United States, including online information, decisioning technology solutions, identity management services, analytical services, e-commerce fraud and charge back protection services, portfolio management services, mortgage information and marketing services. The Company’s International segment provides products and services similar to those available in the USIS segment but with variations by geographic region.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Equifax Set to Announce Q1 Earnings on April 21
- Earnings Announcement: Equifax (EFX) is scheduled to release its Q1 2023 earnings on April 21 before market open, with a consensus EPS estimate of $1.70, reflecting a significant year-over-year increase of 60.4%, which could positively influence the stock price.
- Revenue Expectations: Analysts anticipate that Equifax's Q1 revenue will reach $1.62 billion, representing a 12.5% year-over-year growth, indicating the company's strong market growth potential and business expansion capabilities.
- Historical Performance: Over the past year, Equifax has exceeded EPS estimates 50% of the time and revenue estimates 75% of the time, demonstrating the stability and reliability of its financial performance.
- Revision Trends: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen 2 upward revisions and 15 downward revisions, while revenue estimates have experienced 14 upward revisions with no downward adjustments, reflecting market confidence in the company's future performance and optimistic expectations for revenue growth.
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- Boeing Earnings Outlook: Boeing is expected to release its earnings report on Wednesday, with market focus on order volumes in both its commercial and defense sectors, as well as free cash flow performance, especially after previous unexpected losses.
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- Earnings Expectations: According to FactSet, the S&P 500 is projected to have a blended growth rate of 12.5% in Q1, with 78% of reporting companies exceeding expectations, providing a positive backdrop for the upcoming earnings season that could further bolster market confidence.
- Oil Price Volatility: While oil prices have fallen to around $80 per barrel, significantly below the $110 peak during the conflict, the market must remain vigilant regarding the potential impacts of U.S.-Iran tensions on global supply chains, particularly concerning the safety of transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
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- Nvidia Reiteration: Evercore ISI reiterates Nvidia as outperform, noting that despite recent underperformance, its potential in AI demand and compute cycles remains robust, underscoring its significance and investment value in future markets.
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First-Party Fraud in Canada Surges 31% Year-Over-Year
- Fraud Rate Increase: Equifax Canada's latest data reveals a 31% year-over-year rise in first-party fraud rates from Q4 2024 to Q4 2025, indicating a troubling trend of consumers manipulating their financial information, particularly pronounced in Ontario and Alberta.
- Credit Card Fraud Surge: First-party credit card fraud nearly doubled, increasing from 0.08% in Q4 2024 to 0.15% in Q4 2025, with 77% of cases involving applicants submitting contradictory or inconsistent data, leading to credit losses as high as $123 million CAD.
- Banking and Deposit Fraud Shift: In banking and deposits, first-party fraud rates rose from 0.51% to 0.68%, with cases involving falsified financial information skyrocketing from 1.5% to 21%, highlighting the evolving nature of fraud tactics and increasing risks.
- Mortgage and Auto Loan Fraud: Despite a decline in mortgage and auto loan fraud rates by 12.5% and 19.4% respectively, potential losses remain significant, with consumers aged 26 to 45 accounting for most suspected fraudulent mortgage applications, indicating a high risk among younger demographics.
See More
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- New Stock Additions: Jerome Dodson added a total of 8 stocks in Q1 2026, with the most significant being Dick's Sporting Goods Inc (NYSE:DKS), acquiring 75,518 shares, which represents 2.07% of the portfolio and a total value of $14.97 million, indicating confidence in the sports retail market.
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- Significant Reductions: Dodson reduced his position in Teradyne Inc (NASDAQ:TER) by 67,375 shares, a 45.27% decrease, impacting the portfolio by -1.62%, while the stock has returned 58.85% over the past three months, indicating a reassessment of the tech sector.
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- Earnings Announcement: Equifax (EFX) is scheduled to release its Q1 2023 earnings on April 21 before market open, with a consensus EPS estimate of $1.70, reflecting a significant year-over-year increase of 60.4%, which could positively influence the stock price.
- Revenue Expectations: Analysts anticipate that Equifax's Q1 revenue will reach $1.62 billion, representing a 12.5% year-over-year growth, indicating the company's strong market growth potential and business expansion capabilities.
- Historical Performance: Over the past year, Equifax has exceeded EPS estimates 50% of the time and revenue estimates 75% of the time, demonstrating the stability and reliability of its financial performance.
- Revision Trends: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen 2 upward revisions and 15 downward revisions, while revenue estimates have experienced 14 upward revisions with no downward adjustments, reflecting market confidence in the company's future performance and optimistic expectations for revenue growth.
See More
Wall Street Earnings Season Faces Major Test
- Earnings Season Significance: Wall Street is set for a packed earnings season featuring key companies like Capital One and Boeing, with investors eager to glean insights into the economic impact of the Iran war from these reports.
- Capital One Performance Focus: Capital One is scheduled to report earnings on Tuesday, with market attention on its consumer health metrics and the progress of its acquisitions of Discover and Brex, particularly amid rising economic uncertainties.
- Boeing Earnings Outlook: Boeing is expected to release its earnings report on Wednesday, with market focus on order volumes in both its commercial and defense sectors, as well as free cash flow performance, especially after previous unexpected losses.
- GE Vernova Order Growth: GE Vernova will report alongside Boeing, with first-quarter new orders anticipated to reach $14.4 billion, reflecting a 65% year-over-year increase, indicating strong market performance amid rising electricity demand.
See More
Wall Street Optimism Rises Amid Ceasefire Hopes
- Market Rebound: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite reached all-time highs this week, with the S&P 500 surpassing 7,100 for the first time, reflecting strong investor confidence in economic recovery and suggesting further upward momentum for equities.
- Earnings Expectations: According to FactSet, the S&P 500 is projected to have a blended growth rate of 12.5% in Q1, with 78% of reporting companies exceeding expectations, providing a positive backdrop for the upcoming earnings season that could further bolster market confidence.
- Oil Price Volatility: While oil prices have fallen to around $80 per barrel, significantly below the $110 peak during the conflict, the market must remain vigilant regarding the potential impacts of U.S.-Iran tensions on global supply chains, particularly concerning the safety of transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Technical Fragility: Despite the market's strong short-term performance, analyst Craig Johnson warns that the rapid transition from oversold to overbought conditions masks underlying macroeconomic risks, urging investors to remain cautious and focus on high-quality investment opportunities.
See More
Latest Rating Changes on Wall Street
- ResMed Upgrade: JPMorgan upgrades ResMed to overweight, highlighting its position as a global leader in the obstructive sleep apnea market, primarily generating revenue from CPAP devices and masks, along with a portfolio of respiratory health solutions, indicating strong market competitiveness.
- Nvidia Reiteration: Evercore ISI reiterates Nvidia as outperform, noting that despite recent underperformance, its potential in AI demand and compute cycles remains robust, underscoring its significance and investment value in future markets.
- Okta Upgrade: Raymond James upgrades Okta to outperform, suggesting that the shift of AI into enterprise applications will significantly enhance Okta's market opportunities, particularly in identity security, indicating potential market expansion.
- PayPal Downgrade: Mizuho downgrades PayPal to neutral, citing competitive and fundamental pressures, reflecting market concerns about its future growth, which may impact investor confidence.
See More
First-Party Fraud in Canada Surges 31% Year-Over-Year
- Fraud Rate Increase: Equifax Canada's latest data reveals a 31% year-over-year rise in first-party fraud rates from Q4 2024 to Q4 2025, indicating a troubling trend of consumers manipulating their financial information, particularly pronounced in Ontario and Alberta.
- Credit Card Fraud Surge: First-party credit card fraud nearly doubled, increasing from 0.08% in Q4 2024 to 0.15% in Q4 2025, with 77% of cases involving applicants submitting contradictory or inconsistent data, leading to credit losses as high as $123 million CAD.
- Banking and Deposit Fraud Shift: In banking and deposits, first-party fraud rates rose from 0.51% to 0.68%, with cases involving falsified financial information skyrocketing from 1.5% to 21%, highlighting the evolving nature of fraud tactics and increasing risks.
- Mortgage and Auto Loan Fraud: Despite a decline in mortgage and auto loan fraud rates by 12.5% and 19.4% respectively, potential losses remain significant, with consumers aged 26 to 45 accounting for most suspected fraudulent mortgage applications, indicating a high risk among younger demographics.
See More
Jerome Dodson's Q1 2026 Investment Moves
- New Stock Additions: Jerome Dodson added a total of 8 stocks in Q1 2026, with the most significant being Dick's Sporting Goods Inc (NYSE:DKS), acquiring 75,518 shares, which represents 2.07% of the portfolio and a total value of $14.97 million, indicating confidence in the sports retail market.
- Key Position Increases: Dodson increased his stake in DoorDash Inc (NASDAQ:DASH) by 50,768 shares, a 135.47% rise, bringing the total to 88,243 shares, impacting the portfolio by 1.05% with a total value of $13.25 million, reflecting optimism in the food delivery sector.
- Complete Exits: In Q1 2026, Dodson completely exited 8 holdings, including Equifax Inc (NYSE:EFX), selling all 98,891 shares, resulting in a -2.67% impact on the portfolio, demonstrating caution towards the data services industry.
- Significant Reductions: Dodson reduced his position in Teradyne Inc (NASDAQ:TER) by 67,375 shares, a 45.27% decrease, impacting the portfolio by -1.62%, while the stock has returned 58.85% over the past three months, indicating a reassessment of the tech sector.
See More
