Exxon Mobil Shares Down $6.72 to $148.16
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1 day ago
0mins
Should l Buy XOM?
Mixed options sentiment in Exxon Mobil (XOM), with shares down $6.72 near $148.16. Options volume relatively light with 64k contracts traded and calls leading puts for a put/call ratio of 0.5, compared to a typical level near 0.49. Implied volatility (IV30) dropped 1.13 near 28.8,in the top quartile of the past year, suggesting an expected daily move of $2.69. Put-call skew flattened, suggesting a modestly bullish tone.
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Analyst Views on XOM
Wall Street analysts forecast XOM stock price to fall
19 Analyst Rating
12 Buy
7 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 146.580
Low
114.00
Averages
132.17
High
158.00
Current: 146.580
Low
114.00
Averages
132.17
High
158.00
About XOM
Exxon Mobil Corporation is an energy provider and chemical manufacturer. The Company’s principal business involves exploration for, and production of, crude oil and natural gas; the manufacture, trade, transport and sale of crude oil, natural gas, petroleum products, petrochemicals and a wide variety of specialty products; and pursuit of lower-emission and other new business opportunities, including carbon capture and storage, hydrogen, lower-emission fuels, Proxxima systems, carbon materials, and lithium. Its Upstream segment explores for and produces crude oil and natural gas. The Energy Products, Chemical Products, and Specialty Products segments manufacture and sell petroleum products and petrochemicals. Energy Products segment includes fuels, aromatics, and catalysts and licensing. Chemical Products segment consists of olefins, polyolefins, and intermediates. Specialty Products segment includes finished lubricants, basestocks and waxes, synthetics, and elastomers and resins.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Exxon Warns of Rising Oil Prices Amid Strait Closure
- Market Impact Assessment: Exxon executives caution that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has not yet fully impacted global oil markets, suggesting that prices could rise further as commercial inventories approach minimum operating levels, indicating market sensitivity to supply disruptions.
- Buffering Inventory Effects: Management noted that oil in transit, strategic petroleum reserve releases, and commercial inventory drawdowns have temporarily mitigated market pressures, but as inventories near minimum levels, this buffer will disappear, potentially leading to price spikes.
- Market Recovery Expectations: Traders on prediction marketplace Kalshi see a 52% chance that traffic returns to normal by September 1, with a 44% chance by August 1, reflecting cautious optimism about future supply recovery.
- Reshaping Global Energy Security: Exxon anticipates that this crisis will reshape global energy security thinking, with many countries likely to establish strategic petroleum reserves, thereby seeking protection against future disruptions and further driving market demand.
See More
Analysis of Hedge Fund Holdings Changes
- Overview of Holdings: As of March 31, 2026, 38 hedge funds held Exxon Mobil (XOM), indicating widespread interest in the stock and reflecting market confidence in its future performance.
- Changes in Positions: In the latest 13F filings, 15 funds increased their XOM holdings while 15 decreased them, showcasing a divergence in market sentiment that could impact short-term price volatility.
- New Positions: This batch of filings revealed that three funds initiated new positions in XOM, suggesting potential optimism from new investors that could support future price increases.
- Aggregate Holdings Change: The total shares held by hedge funds increased from 357,250,001 to 366,814,352, representing a 2.68% rise, indicating sustained investment interest in XOM and reflecting confidence in its long-term growth potential.
See More
Middle East Conflict Causes Global Oil Shortage
- Global Oil Shortage: Shell CEO Wael Sawan reported a current oil shortage of nearly one billion barrels, primarily due to locked-in and unproduced crude, with the gap deepening daily, indicating a long recovery process ahead.
- Limited Consumption Impact: Despite reduced oil supplies, jet fuel consumption in the airline industry has only declined by about 5%, reflecting a relatively mild demand destruction, yet the market faces the largest supply disruption in history.
- Strait of Hormuz Blockade: The International Energy Agency noted that Iran has effectively blockaded the Strait of Hormuz, impacting about 20% of global oil supplies, with normal export recovery expected to take months, disrupting global supply chains.
- Future Shortage Risks: ConocoPhillips executives warned that as summer approaches, import-dependent countries may face severe fuel shortages, particularly between June and July, as the impact of lost Middle Eastern oil supplies becomes increasingly apparent.
See More
Occidental Petroleum Halts New Hedging Strategy Amid Oil Price Volatility
- Hedging Strategy Shift: Occidental Petroleum faced a $339 million derivative loss in Q1 due to oil price volatility, and despite producing 617,000 barrels per day, the $76 ceiling on hedges prevented the company from benefiting from rising prices, highlighting the limitations of its hedging approach.
- Market Environment Changes: Anticipating a supply glut and modest demand growth, Occidental hedged 100,000 barrels per day at a floor of $55 and a ceiling of $76 earlier this year; however, with current prices exceeding the ceiling, the company's profitability has been adversely affected.
- Industry-Wide Challenges: Occidental is not alone, as ExxonMobil and Chevron also experienced profit declines due to hedging missteps, with Exxon’s Q1 earnings dropping from $7.3 billion to $4.9 billion, indicating a common risk across the oil sector.
- Future Strategic Direction: By halting new hedges at the $76 ceiling, Occidental aims to avoid being locked into lower prices amid rising oil costs, although this decision carries the risk of missing out on locking in current high prices if oil prices decline sharply, demonstrating the company's adaptability in a dynamic market.
See More
Market Dynamics: Oil Prices and Tech Stocks Fluctuate
- Oil Price Recovery: West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices rebounded above $97 per barrel after a morning dip, reflecting cautious optimism about future demand, which could impact related energy stocks' performance.
- Divergent Tech Stock Performance: As AI-related stocks pull back, cybersecurity software stocks like CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks surged, crossing $500 and $190 respectively for the first time, indicating increased market confidence in their business models and potentially attracting more investor interest.
- Boeing Stock Rise: Boeing's shares rose as CEO Kelly Ortberg is set to accompany President Trump on his trip to China, with the market anticipating a major order of up to 500 planes, although skepticism remains regarding the order's realization.
- Employment Data Expectations: Economists forecast a 65,000 increase in April's nonfarm payrolls with the unemployment rate steady at 4.3%, while average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 3.8%, providing crucial economic health indicators that could influence investor confidence.
See More
U.S. Stock Market Retreats as Oil Prices Surge
- Market Retreat: The S&P 500 Index fell by 0.40%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average by 0.51%, and the Nasdaq 100 by 0.28%, indicating a retreat in market sentiment as rising oil prices weigh on investor confidence and raise concerns about future economic prospects.
- Strong Employment Data: Initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose by 10,000 to 200,000, indicating a stronger labor market than the expected 205,000, while continuing claims unexpectedly fell by 10,000 to a 2.25-year low of 1.766 million, showcasing economic resilience.
- Productivity and Costs: U.S. Q1 nonfarm productivity increased by 0.8%, surpassing expectations of 0.6%, while unit labor costs rose by 2.3%, below the anticipated 2.5%, which may influence future inflation expectations and Fed policy decisions.
- Fed Policy Outlook: Boston Fed President indicated that interest rates should remain at “mildly restrictive” levels, suggesting that if inflation trends worsen significantly, a reassessment of policy would be necessary, with markets pricing in only a 6% chance of a rate cut at the next FOMC meeting.
See More
Exxon Warns of Rising Oil Prices Amid Strait Closure
- Market Impact Assessment: Exxon executives caution that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has not yet fully impacted global oil markets, suggesting that prices could rise further as commercial inventories approach minimum operating levels, indicating market sensitivity to supply disruptions.
- Buffering Inventory Effects: Management noted that oil in transit, strategic petroleum reserve releases, and commercial inventory drawdowns have temporarily mitigated market pressures, but as inventories near minimum levels, this buffer will disappear, potentially leading to price spikes.
- Market Recovery Expectations: Traders on prediction marketplace Kalshi see a 52% chance that traffic returns to normal by September 1, with a 44% chance by August 1, reflecting cautious optimism about future supply recovery.
- Reshaping Global Energy Security: Exxon anticipates that this crisis will reshape global energy security thinking, with many countries likely to establish strategic petroleum reserves, thereby seeking protection against future disruptions and further driving market demand.
See More
Analysis of Hedge Fund Holdings Changes
- Overview of Holdings: As of March 31, 2026, 38 hedge funds held Exxon Mobil (XOM), indicating widespread interest in the stock and reflecting market confidence in its future performance.
- Changes in Positions: In the latest 13F filings, 15 funds increased their XOM holdings while 15 decreased them, showcasing a divergence in market sentiment that could impact short-term price volatility.
- New Positions: This batch of filings revealed that three funds initiated new positions in XOM, suggesting potential optimism from new investors that could support future price increases.
- Aggregate Holdings Change: The total shares held by hedge funds increased from 357,250,001 to 366,814,352, representing a 2.68% rise, indicating sustained investment interest in XOM and reflecting confidence in its long-term growth potential.
See More
Middle East Conflict Causes Global Oil Shortage
- Global Oil Shortage: Shell CEO Wael Sawan reported a current oil shortage of nearly one billion barrels, primarily due to locked-in and unproduced crude, with the gap deepening daily, indicating a long recovery process ahead.
- Limited Consumption Impact: Despite reduced oil supplies, jet fuel consumption in the airline industry has only declined by about 5%, reflecting a relatively mild demand destruction, yet the market faces the largest supply disruption in history.
- Strait of Hormuz Blockade: The International Energy Agency noted that Iran has effectively blockaded the Strait of Hormuz, impacting about 20% of global oil supplies, with normal export recovery expected to take months, disrupting global supply chains.
- Future Shortage Risks: ConocoPhillips executives warned that as summer approaches, import-dependent countries may face severe fuel shortages, particularly between June and July, as the impact of lost Middle Eastern oil supplies becomes increasingly apparent.
See More
Occidental Petroleum Halts New Hedging Strategy Amid Oil Price Volatility
- Hedging Strategy Shift: Occidental Petroleum faced a $339 million derivative loss in Q1 due to oil price volatility, and despite producing 617,000 barrels per day, the $76 ceiling on hedges prevented the company from benefiting from rising prices, highlighting the limitations of its hedging approach.
- Market Environment Changes: Anticipating a supply glut and modest demand growth, Occidental hedged 100,000 barrels per day at a floor of $55 and a ceiling of $76 earlier this year; however, with current prices exceeding the ceiling, the company's profitability has been adversely affected.
- Industry-Wide Challenges: Occidental is not alone, as ExxonMobil and Chevron also experienced profit declines due to hedging missteps, with Exxon’s Q1 earnings dropping from $7.3 billion to $4.9 billion, indicating a common risk across the oil sector.
- Future Strategic Direction: By halting new hedges at the $76 ceiling, Occidental aims to avoid being locked into lower prices amid rising oil costs, although this decision carries the risk of missing out on locking in current high prices if oil prices decline sharply, demonstrating the company's adaptability in a dynamic market.
See More
Market Dynamics: Oil Prices and Tech Stocks Fluctuate
- Oil Price Recovery: West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices rebounded above $97 per barrel after a morning dip, reflecting cautious optimism about future demand, which could impact related energy stocks' performance.
- Divergent Tech Stock Performance: As AI-related stocks pull back, cybersecurity software stocks like CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks surged, crossing $500 and $190 respectively for the first time, indicating increased market confidence in their business models and potentially attracting more investor interest.
- Boeing Stock Rise: Boeing's shares rose as CEO Kelly Ortberg is set to accompany President Trump on his trip to China, with the market anticipating a major order of up to 500 planes, although skepticism remains regarding the order's realization.
- Employment Data Expectations: Economists forecast a 65,000 increase in April's nonfarm payrolls with the unemployment rate steady at 4.3%, while average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 3.8%, providing crucial economic health indicators that could influence investor confidence.
See More
U.S. Stock Market Retreats as Oil Prices Surge
- Market Retreat: The S&P 500 Index fell by 0.40%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average by 0.51%, and the Nasdaq 100 by 0.28%, indicating a retreat in market sentiment as rising oil prices weigh on investor confidence and raise concerns about future economic prospects.
- Strong Employment Data: Initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose by 10,000 to 200,000, indicating a stronger labor market than the expected 205,000, while continuing claims unexpectedly fell by 10,000 to a 2.25-year low of 1.766 million, showcasing economic resilience.
- Productivity and Costs: U.S. Q1 nonfarm productivity increased by 0.8%, surpassing expectations of 0.6%, while unit labor costs rose by 2.3%, below the anticipated 2.5%, which may influence future inflation expectations and Fed policy decisions.
- Fed Policy Outlook: Boston Fed President indicated that interest rates should remain at “mildly restrictive” levels, suggesting that if inflation trends worsen significantly, a reassessment of policy would be necessary, with markets pricing in only a 6% chance of a rate cut at the next FOMC meeting.
See More
