E.l.f. Beauty Stock Decline: E.l.f. Beauty Inc's stock plummeted 29% on Wednesday and an additional 36% on Thursday, negatively impacting several consumer and retail ETFs that are exposed to similar high-multiple, tariff-sensitive companies.
Impact of Tariffs on Earnings: The company's net income dropped 84% due to new tariffs, leading to a decline in gross margins and prompting a price increase across its products, raising concerns about the broader vulnerability of consumer brands relying on global supply chains.
Valuation Concerns: Despite the significant selloff, E.l.f. still trades at around 70 times forward earnings, a valuation more suited for tech startups than a cosmetics company facing margin pressures, prompting analysts to cut price targets and ratings.
ETF Manager Caution: The situation serves as a reminder for ETF managers that high-growth stories can quickly become liabilities, urging investors to reassess their exposure to consumer goods and retail sectors, particularly those with premium valuations.
Wall Street analysts forecast ELF stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ELF is 117.50 USD with a low forecast of 85.00 USD and a high forecast of 136.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
13 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast ELF stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ELF is 117.50 USD with a low forecast of 85.00 USD and a high forecast of 136.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
10 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 91.820
Low
85.00
Averages
117.50
High
136.00
Current: 91.820
Low
85.00
Averages
117.50
High
136.00
Citi
initiated
$110
2026-01-23
New
Reason
Citi
Price Target
$110
AI Analysis
2026-01-23
New
initiated
Reason
Citi initiated coverage of Elf Beauty with a Buy rating and $110 price target. The firm believes share gains at the legacy Elf brand along with distribution opportunities for the recently acquired rhode brand create a "strong growth runway." It sees 16% annual sales growth over the next three years for the company. The 35% selloff post the fiscal Q2 earnings report brings an attractive entry point, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
TD Cowen
Oliver Chen
Buy
maintain
$100 -> $110
2026-01-21
New
Reason
TD Cowen
Oliver Chen
Price Target
$100 -> $110
2026-01-21
New
maintain
Buy
Reason
TD Cowen analyst Oliver Chen raised the firm's price target on Elf Beauty to $110 from $100 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the beauty space as part of a Q4 preview. TD sees the most upside potential at Estee Lauder on improving China trends and sustained U.S. momentum. Beauty trends appear solid, which should drive revenue upside for all companies, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
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TD Cowen
Buy
maintain
2026-01-06
Reason
TD Cowen
Price Target
2026-01-06
maintain
Buy
Reason
TD Cowen says Elf Beauty's sales are improving. Sales at Elf were up 17% year-over-year on a one week basis in the latest week reported and sales trends accelerated versus the prior week on a two year stack basis, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm adds the company's share gains improved to 70 basis points on a four week basis versus the prior reporting period. TD has a Buy rating on Elf Beauty.
Piper Sandler
Anna Andreeva
Neutral
downgrade
$100 -> $85
2025-12-22
Reason
Piper Sandler
Anna Andreeva
Price Target
$100 -> $85
2025-12-22
downgrade
Neutral
Reason
Piper Sandler analyst Anna Andreeva lowered the firm's price target on Elf Beauty to $85 from $100 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Based on SPINS data through November 30, the firm takes a look at Elf's market share vs. competition. After slowing in Q2 2026, so far in Q3 2026, Elf's share gains are improving, although competition is back on offense as well, making innovation increasingly more critical as a differentiator in this space.
About ELF
e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. is a multi-brand beauty company. The Company offers inclusive, accessible, clean, vegan, and cruelty-free cosmetics and skincare products. The Company's family of brands includes e.l.f. Cosmetics, e.l.f. SKIN, Naturium, Well People, Keys Soulcare, and rhode. Its e.l.f. SKIN is an ingredient-focused, dermatologist-developed formulas for every eye, lip and face. The Company operates across beauty categories including eye, lip, and face makeup, beauty tools and accessories, and skincare products. Its color cosmetics and skin care products are broadly sold through food, drug, and mass channels, as well as through department stores and direct and specialty channels. The Company sells its products with retailers in the United States, as well as internationally. It also sells its products online through its own direct e-commerce channels, as well as through other e-commerce Websites.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
