Stock Price & Analysis

Based on the recent market data and analysis, here's a concise assessment of ELF stock:

Technical Analysis

• The stock has experienced a significant decline, falling from its 52-week high of $221.83 to current levels around $73.00
• Currently showing oversold conditions on RSI14 (19), indicating potential for a technical bounce
• Trading below both 50-day and 200-day moving averages, suggesting bearish momentum

Fundamental Analysis

• Revenue growth remains strong at 31% year-over-year in the latest quarter
• International expansion showing impressive 91% growth
• However, margins are under pressure due to increased marketing spend, which rose to 23% of revenue compared to 16% last year

Recent Developments

• Company recently adjusted its fiscal 2025 guidance to 27-28% growth from previous 28-30% range
• Concerns about China tariffs as 80% of products are manufactured there
• Multiple analyst downgrades, including Morgan Stanley lowering price target to $70 and UBS to $74

Based on the current technical and fundamental factors, ELF stock appears to be in a challenging position. While the company continues to show strong revenue growth and international expansion, margin pressures and macroeconomic concerns are weighing on the stock. The current oversold conditions may provide a short-term bounce opportunity, but longer-term investors should exercise caution given the ongoing headwinds.

Based on the provided data and recent market developments, here's a comprehensive analysis for ELF's price prediction in 2025:

Current Market Position

Technical Analysis

• The stock has experienced a significant decline, falling from its recent high of around $210 to current levels near $73
• RSI-14 reading of 23.80 indicates severely oversold conditions
• Current price is trading below all major moving averages (SMA 5, 10, 20, 60, and 200)
• Fibonacci support levels indicate key support at $67.46, with next major support at $59.56

Recent Catalysts & Fundamental Shifts

• Q3 FY2025 earnings report triggered a major selloff, with shares dropping over 20%
• Management lowered FY2025 guidance:
  • Revenue guidance reduced to $1.30-1.31B (below $1.33B consensus)
  • Adjusted EPS guidance cut to $3.27-3.32 (below $3.54 consensus)

Analyst Revisions Multiple analysts have recently adjusted their price targets:

• Truist: Lowered to $100 from $150 (maintains Buy)
• Morgan Stanley: Downgraded to Equal-Weight, target reduced to $70
• UBS: Downgraded to Neutral, target reduced to $74
• DA Davidson: Downgraded to Neutral, target reduced to $80

2025 Price Prediction Based on technical analysis, fundamental factors, and analyst consensus:

• Base case target: $85-90 (implies ~20% upside from current levels)
• Primary drivers: Strong market share gains (+2% in recent quarter) and continued e-commerce growth
• Key risks: Margin pressure from increased SG&A expenses and slower category growth

The S1 support level for ELF Stock is $66.6 ,The R1 resistant level for ELF Stock is $86.56.

As of the end of day on 2025-02-20, the price of ELF Stock was $72.1.

The target price for ELF Stock according to analyst rating is 96.87, with the highest price target at 142.00 and the lowest at 70.00. Analysts have a Moderate Buy rating on ELF Stock overall.

The market cap of ELF is $4.1B.

Based on the provided data and recent market developments, here's a comprehensive analysis of whether ELF is overvalued:

Technical Analysis

The stock is showing significant bearish signals with RSI at 23.80 (oversold territory) and MACD at -13.28 with negative divergence. The stock is trading well below all major moving averages (SMA 5, 10, 20, 60, and 200), indicating strong downward momentum.

Valuation Metrics

Recent Performance and Guidance The stock has experienced a sharp decline after the company lowered its fiscal 2025 guidance. Key concerns include:

• Revenue guidance reduced to $1.30-1.31 billion (below analyst estimates of $1.33 billion)
• EPS guidance cut to $3.27-3.32 (below analyst estimates of $3.54)
• Despite 31% YoY sales growth, bottom-line growth remains challenged

Analyst Actions Multiple analysts have recently downgraded the stock:

• Morgan Stanley: Downgraded to Equal-Weight, PT lowered to $70
• UBS: Downgraded to Neutral, PT lowered to $74
• DA Davidson: Downgraded to Neutral, PT lowered to $80

Growth and Market Position The company maintains strong market position with:

• Continued market share gains (+2% in US)
• Strong e-commerce and retail channel performance
• International expansion opportunities
• Growing presence in color cosmetics and skincare

Based on these factors, ELF appears fairly valued at current levels. The recent price correction has brought valuations more in line with fundamentals, though operational challenges in expense control and profit conversion need to be addressed for future growth potential.

e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. is a multi-brand beauty company. The Company offers inclusive, accessible, clean, vegan, and cruelty-free cosmetics and skincare products. The Company offers a range of products that are vegan and cruelty-free. The Company's brands include e.l.f. Cosmetics, e.l.f. SKIN, Well People, and Keys Soulcare. e.l.f. SKIN is an ingredient-focused, dermatologist-developed formula for every eye, lip, face and skin concern. The Company operates across beauty categories including eye, lip, and face makeup, beauty tools and accessories, and skincare products. Its color cosmetics and skin care products are broadly sold through food, drug, and mass channels, as well as through department stores and direct and specialty channels. The Company's brands are available online and across beauty, mass market and specialty retailers in the United States.

Based on the available data and recent market developments, here's a comprehensive analysis for ELF's price prediction for 2030:

Current Market Position and Recent Developments

The stock has experienced significant volatility recently, with a notable decline following its Q3 FY2025 earnings report. The company's recent guidance reduction and market reaction provide important context for long-term projections.

2030 Price Prediction: $185-195

This projection is based on three key factors:

1. Growth Trajectory: Despite recent headwinds, ELF maintains strong market share gains, with over 2 percentage points increase in U.S. market share during recent quarter.

2. Market Expansion: The company's strategic focus on digital distribution, international expansion, and growing emphasis on color cosmetics and skin-care products provides substantial runway for growth.

3. Generation Alpha Opportunity: ELF is well-positioned to capture the emerging Generation Alpha consumer base, which shows earlier engagement with beauty products and increased focus on wellness.

The price target represents approximately 2.5x current trading levels, implying a ~12% compound annual growth rate through 2030, accounting for recent valuation reset and long-term growth potential.

ELF has a total of 339 employees.