Should You Buy elf Beauty Inc (ELF) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
BUY for a long-term beginner right now. ELF is trading near key support (~85.7) after a major selloff, while news flow and analyst commentary remain broadly constructive (Rhode acquisition + continued multi-quarter sales growth). The technicals are still weak short-term, but the risk/reward is favorable for a long-term investor who wants to enter immediately rather than wait for a perfect setup.
Technical Analysis
Price/levels: Post-market ~85.2, sitting just below S1 (85.694) and well below the pivot (90.178). This suggests the stock is still in a post-selloff recovery/weakness zone, but also near an area where buyers often step in.
Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.0221) and expanding lower, indicating downside momentum is still present.
RSI: RSI(6) ~35.3 (near oversold territory but not deeply oversold), consistent with a stock that has been sold hard and may be closer to stabilization than to a fresh breakout.
Trend/MA: Converging moving averages imply the prior strong trend has cooled and is trying to base.
Near-term probability read: Pattern-based projection flags weak next-month bias (-6.15%), so this is not a "clean" short-term technical buy; it’s more of a long-term entry near support.
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Price targets were cut materially after the fiscal Q2/guidance reset (e.g., JPM $137→$103, BofA $130→$115, Goldman $155→$135, Baird $145→$125, Piper $100→$85), but most maintained Buy/Overweight/Outperform ratings, signaling conviction in the long-term story despite near-term headwinds.
Latest direction: Citi initiated coverage with a Buy and $110 target (2026-01-23) and TD Cowen raised its target to $110 (2026-01-21), suggesting Wall Street sentiment is stabilizing/improving after the reset.
Wall Street pros: Strong brand/share gains narrative, Rhode acquisition extends runway, multiple firms see the selloff as an entry.
Wall Street cons: Near-term normalization, tougher comps/shipment timing issues, competitive pressure, and the need for innovation to sustain share gains.
Influential/political trading check: No recent congress trading data available. Trading trends show hedge funds neutral and insiders neutral (no significant recent buying/selling signals).
Wall Street analysts forecast ELF stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ELF is 117.5 USD with a low forecast of 85 USD and a high forecast of 136 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
Wall Street analysts forecast ELF stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ELF is 117.5 USD with a low forecast of 85 USD and a high forecast of 136 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
Current: 85.030
Current: 85.030
