Charts Indicate This Communication Services ETF May Be Poised for a Breakout
XLC's Bullish Formation: The State Street Communication Services Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLC) is showing a bullish setup with a potential breakout above a key level, which could lead to new all-time highs.
Sector Composition: The communication services sector, comprising about 10.5% of the S&P 500, is heavily influenced by a few mega-cap stocks, particularly Alphabet, Meta, Netflix, and Disney, which together account for nearly 40% of XLC.
Recent Performance Drivers: Recent strength in XLC has been attributed to stocks like TKO Group, Fox Corp., Warner Bros. Discovery, and Comcast, which have been making higher highs and lows, contributing to the ETF's upward movement.
Breakout Potential: For XLC to achieve a significant breakout, it must surpass the 118 level, which would enhance the likelihood of a sustained upward trend across the sector.
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- Stock Split Motivation: Meta has yet to execute a stock split despite its stock price rising over 200% in the past three years, currently trading around $670, which may deter some investors due to its psychological price barrier.
- Market Performance Analysis: Although Meta's stock has declined over 6% in the past year, its market capitalization remains at $1.7 trillion, indicating the company's strong position and potential investment appeal in the market.
- AI Investment Priority: Meta has recently focused on enhancing its AI capabilities and infrastructure investments, suggesting that a stock split is not a current priority but may be reconsidered in 2026.
- Future Outlook: Should Meta's stock gain momentum and rise quickly in the coming year, it may contemplate executing a stock split, aligning itself with other tech giants to attract more investors.
- Tech Sector Retreat: U.S. stocks experienced a significant decline on Thursday, with the S&P 500 down 1.57%, the Dow Jones down 1.34%, and the Nasdaq 100 down 2.04%, primarily driven by a sell-off in the Magnificent Seven tech stocks, indicating concerns over the profitability outlook in the tech sector.
- Cisco Systems Warning: Cisco Systems saw its stock plummet over 12% after forecasting that rising memory chip prices would erode profitability, raising investor concerns about future performance and potentially diminishing market confidence.
- Weak Economic Data: Initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell by 5,000 to 227,000, below the expected 223,000, while January existing home sales dropped 8.4% month-over-month to 3.91 million, marking a 16-month low, which reflects signs of economic slowdown that could impact market sentiment.
- Positive Earnings Season: Despite the overall market downturn, over 76% of S&P 500 companies that reported earnings exceeded expectations, with Q4 earnings projected to grow by 8.4%, indicating strong corporate profitability that may provide support for the market.
- Surge in Capital Expenditure: Top hyperscalers are expected to increase capital expenditures by 70% this year, with Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft planning a combined spending of over $600 billion, indicating a strong commitment to AI infrastructure investment.
- Mixed Market Reactions: Despite the significant increase in capital spending, Amazon and Microsoft's shares have dropped 12% and 16% respectively, while Alphabet's stock is down less than 1% and Meta's has risen by 1%, reflecting investor concerns about the timing of returns on these investments.
- Infrastructure Investment Opportunities: With spending accelerating, investors are drawn to
- Revenue Growth: Airbnb's Q4 revenue increased by 12% to $2.78 billion, surpassing analysts' expectations of $2.72 billion, yet the earnings per share of 56 cents fell short of the anticipated 66 cents, indicating pressure on profitability.
- Future Outlook: The company expects Q1 revenue to range between $2.59 billion and $2.63 billion, slightly above analysts' forecast of $2.53 billion, suggesting ongoing growth potential in the market.
- Booking Volume Increase: Airbnb reported 121.9 million nights booked in Q4, a 10% year-over-year increase that exceeded the expected 117.6 million, reflecting strong user demand and platform appeal.
- Management Change: The appointment of Ahmad Al-Dahle as the new CTO signifies a strategic shift in Airbnb's focus on technological innovation, aiming to leverage AI to enhance travel and e-commerce experiences.
- Tech Stocks Plummet: Fears of potential disruptions from artificial intelligence led to a significant decline in tech stocks, with the Nasdaq Composite dropping over 2% and Apple shares falling around 5%, indicating market anxiety about the future of the tech sector.
- Dow Jones Decline: The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell approximately 1.3%, or over 650 points, breaking a three-day winning streak, reflecting investor caution ahead of upcoming inflation data that could influence Federal Reserve rate decisions.
- Gold and Bitcoin Drop: Gold futures sank 3%, while Bitcoin prices also declined to around $65,000, as investors adopted a risk-off stance, highlighting concerns about the future economic outlook.
- Employment Data Impacting Policy Expectations: Despite January's job additions being double the expected amount, the strong labor market has dampened expectations for near-term interest rate cuts by the Fed, increasing uncertainty in the stock market.
- Questionable Timing: Congressman John McGuire's rapid buying and selling of Microsoft stock within just 10 days raises concerns about the unusual nature of his trading activities, particularly given his role on the Armed Services Committee, which may present potential conflicts of interest.
- Disclosure Details: The trades were executed by McGuire's spouse through an IRA, with a maximum disclosed trade size of $15,000, suggesting he may not have been directly involved in the transactions, which raises questions about transparency.
- Market Reaction Analysis: Microsoft shares traded between $438.68 and $452.69 at purchase and fell to $426.45 to $439.60 at sale, indicating a potential loss of 5.8%, highlighting the risks associated with his investment decisions.
- Historical Trading Context: Since joining Congress in 2025, McGuire has had minimal trading activity, with previous trades also drawing scrutiny regarding potential conflicts of interest in the healthcare sector, intensifying public scrutiny of his trading behavior.








