British American Tobacco Added as New Long Idea by Hedgeye
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 50 minutes ago
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Should l Buy BTI?
Source: seekingalpha
- Market Share Growth: British American Tobacco's market share in the U.S. nicotine pouch category surged from 6% at the beginning of the year to 24% by year-end, demonstrating its leadership in this rapidly growing segment and further solidifying its competitive position.
- Product Innovation Advantage: Hedgeye analyst highlighted that British American Tobacco was the first to market with a moist pouch, which has provided a competitive edge and driven rapid market share gains in the nicotine pouch category.
- FDA Authorization Impact: The FDA's recent authorization of the first fruit flavors for e-vaping marks a milestone for the industry, with British American Tobacco applying for similar age-gating technology for its Vuse vapor device, indicating potential recovery in the legal vaping market.
- Stock Price Reaction: Shares of British American Tobacco rose 1.7% on Monday, reflecting positive market sentiment regarding its growth potential, particularly in light of new product categories and market share expansion.
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Analyst Views on BTI
About BTI
British American Tobacco p.l.c. is a global multi-category consumer goods business company. The Company provides tobacco and nicotine products. Its segments include the United States, Asia Pacific Middle East and Africa, and Americas and Europe. Its product categories include Vapor, Heating Products (HPs), Modern Oral, Traditional Oral, and Combustible cigarettes. Vapor products are handheld, battery-powered devices that heat a liquid to produce an inhalable aerosol, known as vapor. HPs are devices that use heat to generate a nicotine-containing aerosol, which the user inhales. This category includes Tobacco Heated Products and Herbal Products for Heating (HPH). Modern Oral products are smoke-free oral nicotine products called nicotine pouches, designed for use in the mouth. Traditional oral products include snus and snuff. Its brands include Vuse, glo, Velo, Grizzly, Dunhill, Kent, Lucky Strike, Pall Mall, Rothmans, Newport, Natural American Spirit, Camel, and others.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
British American Tobacco Added as New Long Idea by Hedgeye
- Market Share Growth: British American Tobacco's market share in the U.S. nicotine pouch category surged from 6% at the beginning of the year to 24% by year-end, demonstrating its leadership in this rapidly growing segment and further solidifying its competitive position.
- Product Innovation Advantage: Hedgeye analyst highlighted that British American Tobacco was the first to market with a moist pouch, which has provided a competitive edge and driven rapid market share gains in the nicotine pouch category.
- FDA Authorization Impact: The FDA's recent authorization of the first fruit flavors for e-vaping marks a milestone for the industry, with British American Tobacco applying for similar age-gating technology for its Vuse vapor device, indicating potential recovery in the legal vaping market.
- Stock Price Reaction: Shares of British American Tobacco rose 1.7% on Monday, reflecting positive market sentiment regarding its growth potential, particularly in light of new product categories and market share expansion.
See More
Challenges of High-Yield Investments in Consumer Goods for 2026
- Philip Morris International: In Q1 2026, Philip Morris International reported a 9.1% year-over-year increase in net revenue to $10.1 billion, with adjusted EPS growth of 16%, and raised its full-year EPS guidance to between $8.36 and $8.51, highlighting strong growth potential in alternative tobacco products despite regulatory risks.
- British American Tobacco: British American Tobacco's Velo Plus nicotine pouches lead the rapidly growing market, with a 3.4% EPS increase for full-year 2025 and a current dividend yield of 5%, while its healthy payout ratio of 69% indicates stability despite challenges from declining combustible product volumes.
- Hormel Foods: As a
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Turning Point Brands Reports Strong Quarterly Sales Growth
- Sales Growth: Turning Point Brands reported net sales of $124.3 million for the quarter, reflecting a nearly 17% year-over-year increase that surpassed analyst expectations of $123.8 million, indicating strong performance in the tobacco market and solidifying its market position.
- Profitability Challenges: Despite the sales increase, non-GAAP net income fell by 11% to $14.8 million, or $0.76 per share, highlighting challenges in profitability that could impact investor confidence and market perception.
- Divergent Product Line Performance: The Stoker smokeless tobacco line saw a remarkable 48% sales increase to $87.6 million, driven by heightened demand for modern oral products, while the Zig-Zag rolling papers line experienced a 22% decline to $36.7 million, illustrating the diversity of the product portfolio and shifting market demands.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: Management raised the sales forecast for modern oral products to $210 million to $225 million for 2026, up from the previous estimate of $180 million to $190 million, which is expected to drive adjusted EBITDA to between $70 million and $90 million, reflecting the company's confidence in future growth.
See More
Trump Pressures FDA to Expedite Approval of Flavored Vapes
- Policy Pressure: President Trump is reportedly pressuring FDA Commissioner Marty Makary to expedite the approval of flavored vapes and nicotine products, highlighting the urgency of his 2024 campaign promise to appeal to younger supporters.
- Health Concerns: Despite the pressure, Makary has expressed concerns about approving fruit flavors that may appeal to children, which could lead the FDA to only approve flavors like mint, coffee, tea, and spices that are deemed more adult-oriented, thereby affecting the variety of products in the market.
- Market Impact: Should the FDA approve flavored vapes, major tobacco companies such as British American Tobacco (BTI), Altria (MO), and Philip Morris International (PM) are likely to benefit, particularly Altria through its stake in Juul and the NJOY brand.
- Financial Outlook: Altria projects an adjusted diluted EPS of $5.56 to $5.72 for 2026, indicating that the company expects to achieve a more balanced performance between the first and second halves of the year.
See More
Altria Navigates Declining Tobacco Sales
- Sales Decline Trend: Barclays' latest analysis shows traditional cigarette volumes declined by 4.3% to 5.5% year-over-year, while Altria's decline was only 4.7%, indicating its relatively stable market performance.
- Competitor Performance: In comparison, British American Tobacco's volumes plummeted by 9.3% and Imperial Brands fell by 9%, highlighting Altria's stronger competitive position and ability to navigate market challenges more effectively.
- Alternative Product Growth: Despite the decline in traditional tobacco sales, nicotine pouch volumes surged by 22%, reflecting consumer interest in next-generation tobacco products, suggesting Altria has room for improvement in this area.
- Dividend Appeal: Altria remains an attractive income stock, drawing attention from investors seeking stable returns, even as it faces a shrinking traditional market, particularly appealing to dividend-focused investors.
See More
Tobacco Industry Sales Continue Decline
- Sales Volume Decline: According to Barclays, traditional cigarette sales volumes declined year-over-year by 4.3% to 5.5%, with a 5.1% drop in 2026 compared to 2025, although this was better than the expected 7.3% decline, indicating market resilience.
- Altria's Steady Performance: Altria Group's traditional cigarette volumes fell by 4.7%, which is significantly better than British American Tobacco's 9.3% drop and Imperial Brands' 9% decline, suggesting Altria is faring better than its competitors.
- New Product Growth: While traditional tobacco sales are declining, nicotine pouch sales surged by 22%, indicating market potential for certain next-generation products, although e-cigarette sales fell sharply by 17% year-over-year.
- Dividend Appeal: With a market cap of $110 billion and a dividend yield of 6.36%, Altria remains an attractive income stock for dividend-seeking investors, even as it distances itself from the shrinking traditional market.
See More
British American Tobacco Added as New Long Idea by Hedgeye
- Market Share Growth: British American Tobacco's market share in the U.S. nicotine pouch category surged from 6% at the beginning of the year to 24% by year-end, demonstrating its leadership in this rapidly growing segment and further solidifying its competitive position.
- Product Innovation Advantage: Hedgeye analyst highlighted that British American Tobacco was the first to market with a moist pouch, which has provided a competitive edge and driven rapid market share gains in the nicotine pouch category.
- FDA Authorization Impact: The FDA's recent authorization of the first fruit flavors for e-vaping marks a milestone for the industry, with British American Tobacco applying for similar age-gating technology for its Vuse vapor device, indicating potential recovery in the legal vaping market.
- Stock Price Reaction: Shares of British American Tobacco rose 1.7% on Monday, reflecting positive market sentiment regarding its growth potential, particularly in light of new product categories and market share expansion.
See More
Challenges of High-Yield Investments in Consumer Goods for 2026
- Philip Morris International: In Q1 2026, Philip Morris International reported a 9.1% year-over-year increase in net revenue to $10.1 billion, with adjusted EPS growth of 16%, and raised its full-year EPS guidance to between $8.36 and $8.51, highlighting strong growth potential in alternative tobacco products despite regulatory risks.
- British American Tobacco: British American Tobacco's Velo Plus nicotine pouches lead the rapidly growing market, with a 3.4% EPS increase for full-year 2025 and a current dividend yield of 5%, while its healthy payout ratio of 69% indicates stability despite challenges from declining combustible product volumes.
- Hormel Foods: As a
See More
Turning Point Brands Reports Strong Quarterly Sales Growth
- Sales Growth: Turning Point Brands reported net sales of $124.3 million for the quarter, reflecting a nearly 17% year-over-year increase that surpassed analyst expectations of $123.8 million, indicating strong performance in the tobacco market and solidifying its market position.
- Profitability Challenges: Despite the sales increase, non-GAAP net income fell by 11% to $14.8 million, or $0.76 per share, highlighting challenges in profitability that could impact investor confidence and market perception.
- Divergent Product Line Performance: The Stoker smokeless tobacco line saw a remarkable 48% sales increase to $87.6 million, driven by heightened demand for modern oral products, while the Zig-Zag rolling papers line experienced a 22% decline to $36.7 million, illustrating the diversity of the product portfolio and shifting market demands.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: Management raised the sales forecast for modern oral products to $210 million to $225 million for 2026, up from the previous estimate of $180 million to $190 million, which is expected to drive adjusted EBITDA to between $70 million and $90 million, reflecting the company's confidence in future growth.
See More
Trump Pressures FDA to Expedite Approval of Flavored Vapes
- Policy Pressure: President Trump is reportedly pressuring FDA Commissioner Marty Makary to expedite the approval of flavored vapes and nicotine products, highlighting the urgency of his 2024 campaign promise to appeal to younger supporters.
- Health Concerns: Despite the pressure, Makary has expressed concerns about approving fruit flavors that may appeal to children, which could lead the FDA to only approve flavors like mint, coffee, tea, and spices that are deemed more adult-oriented, thereby affecting the variety of products in the market.
- Market Impact: Should the FDA approve flavored vapes, major tobacco companies such as British American Tobacco (BTI), Altria (MO), and Philip Morris International (PM) are likely to benefit, particularly Altria through its stake in Juul and the NJOY brand.
- Financial Outlook: Altria projects an adjusted diluted EPS of $5.56 to $5.72 for 2026, indicating that the company expects to achieve a more balanced performance between the first and second halves of the year.
See More
Altria Navigates Declining Tobacco Sales
- Sales Decline Trend: Barclays' latest analysis shows traditional cigarette volumes declined by 4.3% to 5.5% year-over-year, while Altria's decline was only 4.7%, indicating its relatively stable market performance.
- Competitor Performance: In comparison, British American Tobacco's volumes plummeted by 9.3% and Imperial Brands fell by 9%, highlighting Altria's stronger competitive position and ability to navigate market challenges more effectively.
- Alternative Product Growth: Despite the decline in traditional tobacco sales, nicotine pouch volumes surged by 22%, reflecting consumer interest in next-generation tobacco products, suggesting Altria has room for improvement in this area.
- Dividend Appeal: Altria remains an attractive income stock, drawing attention from investors seeking stable returns, even as it faces a shrinking traditional market, particularly appealing to dividend-focused investors.
See More
Tobacco Industry Sales Continue Decline
- Sales Volume Decline: According to Barclays, traditional cigarette sales volumes declined year-over-year by 4.3% to 5.5%, with a 5.1% drop in 2026 compared to 2025, although this was better than the expected 7.3% decline, indicating market resilience.
- Altria's Steady Performance: Altria Group's traditional cigarette volumes fell by 4.7%, which is significantly better than British American Tobacco's 9.3% drop and Imperial Brands' 9% decline, suggesting Altria is faring better than its competitors.
- New Product Growth: While traditional tobacco sales are declining, nicotine pouch sales surged by 22%, indicating market potential for certain next-generation products, although e-cigarette sales fell sharply by 17% year-over-year.
- Dividend Appeal: With a market cap of $110 billion and a dividend yield of 6.36%, Altria remains an attractive income stock for dividend-seeking investors, even as it distances itself from the shrinking traditional market.
See More
