Stock Price & Analysis

Based on the recent data and market analysis, here's a concise assessment of PM stock:

Technical Analysis

• PM stock shows strong bullish momentum with RSI at 82.28, indicating overbought conditions
• The stock has broken above key resistance levels and is trading near its 52-week highs
• Recent volume increase supports the upward trend

Fundamental Drivers

• Strong Q4 2024 results with HTU volumes up 13% and Zyn volumes surging 46.2%
• Management forecasts 6-8% organic revenue growth for 2025 with 10.5-12.5% EPS growth
• Successful transformation to smoke-free products, now accounting for ~40% of total sales

Market Sentiment

• Analysts maintain a "Moderate Buy" rating with 7 Strong Buys, 1 Moderate Buy, 3 Holds, and 1 Strong Sell
• Mean price target of $134.90 suggests modest upside potential from current levels
• Strong institutional interest as PM is increasingly viewed as both a growth and value play

Based on technical indicators showing overbought conditions and the stock's recent 20% rally, investors should HOLD PM stock at current levels and wait for a pullback before establishing new positions. The long-term outlook remains positive given strong fundamentals and successful business transformation.

Based on the provided data and references, I'll analyze PM's price prediction for 2025:

Technical Analysis & Current Momentum

PM is showing strong bullish momentum, currently trading at $154.40 with a significant YTD gain of 28.29%. The stock has broken through several resistance levels and established new all-time highs.

Fundamental Growth Drivers

1. Smoke-Free Transformation:

• Smoke-free products now account for 40% of total revenue and 42% of gross profit
• ZYN volumes expected to grow 34-41% in 2025, reaching 780-820 million cans
• IQOS continues strong performance in Japan and Europe

2. Financial Outlook:

• Management projects 6-8% organic revenue growth for 2025
• Adjusted EPS guidance of $7.04-$7.17, representing 10.5-12.5% growth
• Operating cash flow forecast of about $11 billion

Price Targets from Multiple Sources

1. Wall Street Consensus:

• Average price target: $141.22
• High target: $160.00
• Low target: $120.00

2. Independent Analysis:

• Multiple analysts expect targets to be revised upward
• Stock could reach $200 range based on valuation expansion toward mid-20s P/E multiple

3. Technical Forecast:

• Short-term (1-month): $157.15
• Mid-term (3-month): $174.08
• Year-end 2025: $154.34

Most Likely Price Range for 2025

Based on the comprehensive analysis of fundamentals, technical indicators, and analyst forecasts, PM stock is expected to trade in the following ranges:

• Conservative case: $140-150
• Base case: $160-175
• Bullish case: $175-200

The base case scenario ($160-175) appears most probable given:

• Strong execution of smoke-free transformation
• Robust margin expansion from premium pricing
• Continued growth in ZYN and IQOS adoption
• Valuation multiple expansion potential

The S1 support level for PM Stock is $146.91 ,The R1 resistant level for PM Stock is $156.63.

As of the end of day on 2025-02-26, the price of PM Stock was $156.12.

The target price for PM Stock according to analyst rating is 152.00, with the highest price target at 163.00 and the lowest at 120.00. Analysts have a Moderate Buy rating on PM Stock overall.

The market cap of PM is $244.8B.

Based on the provided data and current market conditions, here is a concise analysis of PM's valuation:

Current Valuation Metrics:

• P/E ratio of 18.75 (FY2023) shows moderate expansion from 17.41 (FY2022)
• EV/EBITDA of 13.53 (FY2023) indicates slight improvement from 14.31 (FY2022)
• Price/Sales ratio decreased to 4.14 from 4.95 year-over-year

Market Performance:

• Stock closed at $154.40 on Friday, near 52-week high
• Strong momentum with +1.87% gain in last session
• Trading at premium compared to historical averages

Key Findings:

• Net margin declined to 23.45% in 2023 from 29.99% in 2022
• Revenue growth remains solid at +11% YoY ($35.25B in 2023 vs $31.76B in 2022)
• Smoke-free products showing strong growth with higher margins

Conclusion: PM appears moderately overvalued at current levels given:

• Premium valuation metrics versus historical averages
• Margin compression despite revenue growth
• However, strong smoke-free business momentum and transformation could justify higher multiples

The stock's defensive nature and 5.46% dividend yield provide some valuation support, but current price levels suggest limited upside potential in the near term.

Philip Morris International Inc. is an international tobacco company. The Company's product portfolio primarily consists of cigarettes and smoke-free products, which include heat-not-burn, vapor, and oral nicotine products. The Company’s segments include Europe Region; South and Southeast Asia, Commonwealth of Independent States, Middle East and Africa Region (SSEA, CIS & MEA); East Asia, Australia, and PMI Duty Free Region (EA, AU & PMI DF); Americas Region; Swedish Match, and Wellness and Healthcare (W&H), which includes the operating of Vectura Fertin Pharma business. The Company's brands include Marlboro, HEETS, IQOS, IQOS ILUMA, TEREA, and ZYN. The Company’s IQOS smoke-free product brand portfolio includes heated tobacco and nicotine-containing vapor products. Its smoke-free platform (Platform 1) uses a precisely controlled heating device into which a specially designed and proprietary tobacco unit is inserted and heated to generate an aerosol.

Based on the provided data and market research, here is a detailed price prediction analysis for Philip Morris (PM) stock by 2030:

Current Market Position

• Current Price: $154.95
• 52-week trading range: $111.12 - $169.57
• Market State: Closed (Weekend)

Short-Term Technical Analysis

The stock has shown strong momentum recently, with:

• RSI at 77.70 (overbought territory)
• Trading above both 50-day SMA ($129.80) and 200-day SMA ($119.22)
• 77% green days in the past month with 8.91% volatility

2030 Price Prediction Analysis

Based on multiple analyst reports and fundamental drivers:

Bullish Case: $200-220 Key drivers:

• Continued growth in smoke-free products (currently 40% of revenue)
• Strong IQOS adoption globally (38.5M users)
• ZYN's explosive growth (projected 800M cans by 2025)
• Margin expansion from premium pricing
• Strong dividend growth track record

Base Case: $175-190 Considerations:

• Regulatory headwinds in key markets
• Competition in smoke-free segment
• Market valuation expansion to mid-20s P/E
• Continued organic revenue growth of 6-8% annually

Bearish Case: $140-160 Risk factors:

• Accelerated decline in traditional cigarette volumes
• Regulatory restrictions on flavored products
• Higher taxation in key markets
• Economic downturn affecting consumer spending

The most likely scenario points to a price range of $185-200 by 2030, supported by:

• Strong smoke-free product momentum
• Expanding margins from premium pricing
• Consistent dividend growth
• Current valuation at ~20x forward earnings

PM has a total of 82700 employees.