Stock Price & Analysis

Based on the provided data and current market conditions, here's my analysis for PM stock:

Technical Analysis

The stock is showing positive momentum with a +1.49% gain in the last trading session, closing at $121.59. The stock has maintained a steady upward trend with strong volume support of 5.17M shares.

Recent Catalysts

1. FDA Approval for ZYN Products: On January 17, 2025, PM received FDA marketing authorization for 20 ZYN nicotine pouch products, marking them as the first of their kind to receive approval. This is a significant milestone that strengthens PM's position in the smoke-free product segment.

2. Strong Analyst Coverage:

• Morgan Stanley initiated coverage with "Buy" rating and $140 price target (16.86% upside) on January 16, 2025
• Barclays maintains "Buy" rating with $145 target (18.99% upside) on January 8, 2025

Valuation Metrics

Investment Thesis

1. Market Leadership in Smoke-Free Products: PM has achieved 38% of revenues from smoke-free products, demonstrating successful transformation.
2. Strong Growth in ZYN: The nicotine pouch market is expected to grow at 34.4% CAGR from 2025 to 2030, with PM's ZYN holding ~75% market share.
3. International Market Advantage: PM's focus on markets outside the US provides better growth opportunities due to slower declining cigarette consumption volumes compared to the US market.

Risk Factors

1. Currency Impact: Barclays analyst notes that at current rates, PM's 2025 earnings could see 10% adverse impact .
2. Regulatory Environment: Strict marketing regulations for nicotine products could impact growth.
3. Competition in smoke-free segment.

Conclusion Given the recent FDA approval for ZYN products, strong analyst support, and dominant position in the growing smoke-free segment, PM stock appears to be a BUY at current levels. The stock has multiple catalysts for growth and strong market positioning.

Based on the provided data and market context, here's the price prediction for PM stock in 2025:

PM stock is expected to reach $135-140 by end of 2025, representing a ~15% upside from current price of $121.63, driven by strong FDA approval for ZYN nicotine pouches and continued market leadership in smoke-free products.

Key Growth Drivers:

• Recent FDA marketing authorization for 20 ZYN nicotine pouch products positions PM strongly in the growing smoke-free segment
• Low youth usage rate of 1.8% reduces regulatory risks while maintaining growth potential in adult market
• Strict marketing regulations focused on adults aged 21+ provides clear operational framework

Technical Analysis: The stock shows bullish momentum with:

• Current price of $121.63 trading above 20-day SMA of $121.08
• RSI at 47.63 indicates room for upward movement
• Fibonacci resistance levels at $122.26 and $123.86 provide near-term targets

The S1 support level for PM Stock is $117.28 ,The R1 resistant level for PM Stock is $125.91.

As of the end of day on 2025-01-24, the price of PM Stock was $127.01.

The target price for PM Stock according to analyst rating is 137.17, with the highest price target at 145.00 and the lowest at 103.00. Analysts have a Moderate Buy rating on PM Stock overall.

The market cap of PM is $197.9B.

Based on the provided data and recent market developments, here's a concise analysis of PM's valuation:

Valuation Analysis PM's current P/E ratio of 19.26 in Q3 2024 shows an upward trend from 17.92 in Q1, suggesting increasing market premium. The EV/EBITDA ratio has also risen significantly from 13.03 to 16.19, indicating potential overvaluation compared to historical levels.

Growth & Profitability Net margin improved substantially from 25.54% to 32.44% over three quarters, while gross margin increased from 63.66% to 66.04%, demonstrating strong operational efficiency. Revenue grew from $8.79B to $9.91B, showing healthy top-line expansion.

Recent Developments The FDA's recent authorization of ZYN nicotine pouches represents a significant positive catalyst, being the first products of their kind to receive FDA approval under public health criteria.

Analyst Sentiment Morgan Stanley initiated coverage with a $140 price target on January 16, 2025, citing strong smoke-free portfolio growth potential. However, Barclays recently lowered their target to $145 from $155 due to currency headwinds.

Conclusion While PM shows strong operational metrics and positive regulatory developments, the expanding valuation multiples and currency headwinds suggest the stock is moderately overvalued at current levels.

Philip Morris International Inc. is an international tobacco company. The Company's product portfolio primarily consists of cigarettes and smoke-free products, which include heat-not-burn, vapor, and oral nicotine products. The Company’s segments include Europe Region; South and Southeast Asia, Commonwealth of Independent States, Middle East and Africa Region (SSEA, CIS & MEA); East Asia, Australia, and PMI Duty Free Region (EA, AU & PMI DF); Americas Region; Swedish Match, and Wellness and Healthcare (W&H), which includes the operating of Vectura Fertin Pharma business. The Company's brands include Marlboro, HEETS, IQOS, IQOS ILUMA, TEREA, and ZYN. The Company’s IQOS smoke-free product brand portfolio includes heated tobacco and nicotine-containing vapor products. Its smoke-free platform (Platform 1) uses a precisely controlled heating device into which a specially designed and proprietary tobacco unit is inserted and heated to generate an aerosol.

Based on the available data and market analysis, Philip Morris (PM) stock is projected to reach approximately $165-170 by 2030, driven by strong growth in smoke-free products portfolio and continued market dominance. The recent FDA approval of ZYN nicotine pouches demonstrates PM's successful transition to reduced-risk products, positioning the company for sustainable long-term growth. The company's consistent financial performance, with projected 7.5% annual EPS growth and expanding margins in smoke-free segments, supports this bullish price target.

PM has a total of 82700 employees.