Bitcoin Reclaims $70,000 as Oil Cools
The tape today is a live test of how much geopolitical cooling can reflate the "digital gold" and "on-chain capital markets" trades at the same time. Stay up on the crypto news that matters with "Crypto Currents," daily from The Fly. Join us at 2 PM ET for your essential briefing on the fast-moving world of cryptocurrency on FlyCast radio.BITCOIN JUMPS BACK ABOVE $70,000 AS OIL COOLS:reports that bitcoin (BTC-USD) reclaimed $70,000 and dragged ether (ETH-USD) and XRPhigher after President Trump said the Iran conflict could end "very soon," easing the war-premium pressure that had built up in oil and haven trades.Bloombergadds that bitcoin briefly pushed above $71,000 alongside a bounce in equities as crude backed off recent highs, reversing part of last week's energy-driven risk-off move.Bloombergseparately reports that many Hong Kong-based family offices plan to add exposure to digital assets and private equity over the next three years, signaling that institutional appetite in Asia is firming even as Western retail sentiment remains fragile.SPOT BITCOIN ETFS SNAP BACK TO $167M AS STRIVE AND CIRCLE GET STREET UPGRADES:says U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs pulled in about $167M of net inflows on Monday, reversing roughly $577M of outflows from the prior Thursday and Friday as BlackRock'sIBIT led with $109M and Fidelity's FBTC added $60M. Total spot bitcoin ETF assets sit near $88.3B, even as ether, XRP, and solanafunds logged a third straight day of redemptions. On the sell-side, B. Riley analyst Fedor Shabalin initiated Strive Enterprises (ASST) at Buy rating with a $12 price target, citing a dual-engine model that combines a roughly 13,100 bitcoin corporate treasury with about $2.5B of ETF assets under management across 13 products.TOKENIZED STOCKS TOP $1B AS NASDAQ AND KRAKEN BUILD THE ON-CHAIN EQUITY GATEWAY:Cointelegraphreports that tokenized stocks have crossed $1B in outstanding on-chain value for the first time, with Ondo Finance controlling about 60.5% share, roughly $605M, and Kraken's xStocks at about $232M.The Wall Street Journalcontinues to cover Nasdaq's (NDAQ) partnership with Kraken parent Payward to build an issuer-sponsored equity-token gateway using xStocks, which has processed more than $25B in cumulative volume since its June 2025 launch and now counts 85,000-plus on-chain holders. The tokens are expected to go live through DTCC settlement in the first half of 2027, putting traditional voting and dividend mechanics on-chain.BITCOIN TREASURY PLAYS DIVERGE AS HYPERSCALE STACKS AND EMPERY SELLS INTO STRENGTH:A freshpress releaseshows Hyperscale Data (GPUS) holding 617.16 bitcoin, worth about $40.7M at March 8 prices, plus $42.2M of cash and restricted cash, for total bitcoin-plus-cash of roughly $82.9M, or about 138% of its equity market cap. Empery Digital (EMPD) is running the opposite book, with adisclosing that it sold 102 bitcoin last week at an average of $71,636, raising about $7.3M to fund buybacks and bolster cash, while still holding 3,562 bitcoin and having repurchased 20.175 million shares under a $200M program. On the M&A front,notes that Signing Day Sports (SGN) expects to close its BlockchAIn Digital Infrastructure merger on March 16, with the combined company to trade as "AIB" on NYSE American and operate a 40 MW South Carolina AI/HPC data center.ETHER WHALES REPOSITION AS BITMINE MOVES $19.5M TO COINBASE PRIME:shows Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) moved 9,608 ether, about $19.5M, into Coinbase Prime in two tranches today, routing through an intermediate wallet in a pattern consistent with institutional custody or staking rather than spot selling. Bitmine still controls more than 1 million ether across tracked wallets and disclosed 4.53 million ether, 195 bitcoin, and $1.2B in cash on March 9, with Chairman Tom Lee telling investors the firm stepped up purchases to about 61,000 ether last week, its largest weekly buy of 2026. Separately, an OG whale address completed a full liquidation by sending its final 5,082 ether, about $10.3M, to Coinbase, closing out a position that traces back to a 23,300 ether withdrawal from Kraken in October 2016 at roughly $10.37 per coin for a roughly 19,383% gain, while a different whale bought 10,158 ether for $21M at around $2,069 and holds about $83.6M in 20x leveraged bitcoin and ether longs with more than $3M in floating profit.Cointelegraphframes all of this against ether's 65% underperformance versus bitcoin since the proof-of-stake transition, with the "ultrasound money" narrative fading as post-Dencun fee burns decline and supply turns modestly inflationary.SEC FILINGS ROUNDUP FROM BULLISH TO PERSHING SQUARE TO SOLUNA:Bullish (BLSH) filed its20-F annual reportshowing $84.1B in February 2026 trading volume, an adjusted revenue jump to $288.5M from $213.9M, adjusted EBITDA of $94.3M, and gross liquid assets of $3.72B, but a statutory net loss of $785.5M driven by digital-asset impairments. Teucrium Commodity Trust alsoregisteredits 7RCC Spot Bitcoin and Carbon Credit Futures ETF on NYSE Arca, targeting an 80/20 split between bitcoin and regulated carbon credit futures.The Wall Street Journalreports that Bill Ackman's Pershing Square filed its N-2 IPO registration for a closed-end fund planning to list on the NYSE under ticker 'PSUS', with $2.8B already committed toward an anticipated $5B-$10B raise, and the filing includes "cryptocurrency," "blockchain," and "digital asset" within its risk factors and investment universe language. A Lazard Fundsdisclosurerevealed holdings in Coinbase (COIN), Riot Platforms (RIOT), CleanSpark (CLSK), and MARA Holdings (MARA). Soluna Holdings (SLNH) filed an8-Ka day after putting a $1B shelf registration on file, advancing its 83 MW wind-powered bitcoin mining facility in Texas with a projected 3.5 EH/s hashrate and $17M to $20M in annual revenue, plus a 350 MW Tier 3 AI campus on more than 500 acres. BitGo Holdings (BTGO) CEO Mike Belshe is presenting at the Canaccord Genuity Digital Assets Symposium today, fresh off announcements that BitGo will provide stablecoin infrastructure for SoFiUSD, the first stablecoin from a U.S. nationally chartered bank, and completed the first tokenized equity trades with Figureon the Provenance blockchain.PRICE ACTION:As of time of writing, bitcoin was trading at$71,354.18, while ether was trading at $2,068.70,.
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Market Update: Oil Price Drop and Tech Stock Upgrades
- Oil Price Fluctuations: U.S. benchmark WTI crude prices have fallen below $90 a barrel, despite being up over 50% year-to-date, indicating market optimism regarding improved U.S.-Iran relations, yet geopolitical risks continue to loom over oil prices.
- Tech Stock Rating Changes: Intuit was upgraded to buy from hold by Rothschild & Co Redburn, with its stock rising over 30% since late February, although it remains down 28.5% for the year, reflecting a recovery in market confidence in its software products.
- Cybersecurity Stock Bounce: Morgan Stanley upgraded CrowdStrike from hold to buy, with its stock up over 20% from last month's low, highlighting the positive impact of AI technology on the cybersecurity sector and indicating optimistic market expectations for future growth.
- Hewlett Packard Enterprise's Positive Outlook: Despite memory cost pressures, the company raised its full-year earnings outlook, with reported quarterly revenues slightly below expectations but gross margins and adjusted EPS exceeding forecasts, demonstrating strong demand in the data center buildout.
Vertiv's Surge in Data Center Cooling Market
- Institutional Investment Surge: Since Q3 2025, 920 institutional investors have opened or expanded positions in Vertiv, with BlackRock and State Street increasing their stakes by 2.38% and 2.29%, respectively, indicating strong confidence in the company's growth prospects.
- Strong Financial Performance: In 2025, Vertiv's net sales reached $10.23 billion, a 26% increase year-over-year, exceeding guidance by $30 million, reflecting robust demand for data center cooling infrastructure.
- Profitability Improvement: Vertiv's adjusted EPS grew by 47% year-over-year, with projections for 2026 EPS to hit $6.15, showcasing the company's sustained growth potential in the AI-driven market.
- Attractive Valuation: Although the current P/E ratio stands at 73.24, down from 75.74 in 2024, its PEG ratio of 0.80 suggests that Vertiv's stock remains undervalued, attracting investor interest amid anticipated future earnings growth.
Surge in Demand for Vertiv's Cooling Systems
- Investment Surge: Institutional investors are flocking to Vertiv due to skyrocketing demand for cooling systems in data centers, with 920 institutions opening or expanding positions as of September 30, 2025, indicating strong market confidence in its future growth.
- Strong Financial Performance: Vertiv's net sales reached $10.23 billion in 2025, a 26% increase year-over-year, exceeding guidance by $30 million, showcasing its robust competitiveness in the rapidly growing AI infrastructure market.
- Profitability Improvement: In Q4 2025, Vertiv's adjusted EPS surged 47% to $1.36, with projections for 2026 indicating a continued growth of 28%, further solidifying its leadership position in the industry.
- Reasonable Market Valuation: Although Vertiv's current P/E ratio stands at 73.24, down from 75.74 in 2024, its PEG ratio of 0.80 suggests that the stock remains undervalued in light of anticipated future earnings growth, attracting more investor interest.
Investor Confidence Shaken in Private Credit Market
- Market Confidence Shaken: Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood highlighted that the $1.8 trillion private credit market is facing a crisis of confidence due to redemption limits and bankruptcies, particularly as many companies founded during COVID are now struggling to refinance their debts, leading to investor panic.
- Increased Yield Risks: Although private credit promises 10-12% bond-like yields, the risk associated with these returns has significantly increased compared to the 4% yield on Treasuries, causing investors to realize that such yields are not risk-free, thus impacting market sentiment.
- Tech Sector Challenges: Private equity and private credit firms investing in software-as-a-service (SaaS) are also experiencing declines, as concerns grow that AI and platform-as-a-service companies may undermine the relevance of the software sector, further exacerbating market unease.
- Blue Owl Capital's Strategic Shift: Blue Owl Capital announced a pivot to accelerate redemptions and liquidated $1.4 trillion in assets to return capital to investors; despite CEO Craig Packer describing this as a “strategic transaction,” the company's shares have plunged nearly 36% year-to-date, indicating a significant erosion of investor confidence.
Investors Should Rebuild Bond Allocations, Says JPMorgan
- Stable Bond Market: Despite concerns over the U.S.-Iran tensions and rising oil prices, the bond market has held up well over the past week, with the 10-year Treasury yield remaining between 3.9% and 4.3%, indicating that fixed-income investments remain attractive.
- Underweight Fixed Income: Bob Michele from JPMorgan highlights that many investors have been under-allocated to fixed income over the past few years, leading to imbalanced portfolios, but there are signs that investors are now looking to the bond market for diversification.
- Increased Bond ETF Inflows: State Street reported that bond ETFs saw inflows of $52 billion in February, marking the second consecutive month above $50 billion, indicating a trend of investors seeking to diversify away from equities and enhance their fixed-income allocations.
- Emerging Market Appeal: Michele expresses optimism about emerging markets such as Mexico, Colombia, and Brazil, as well as Hungary, Romania, and Poland, noting that these markets offer high real yields of around 9%, which is attractive in an environment where central banks are effectively managing growth and inflation.
Investors Are Abandoning Private Credit While Trump Has Ambitious Plans for It.
- Investment Timing: The Trump administration is advised to improve its strategy regarding the timing of investments to maximize effectiveness.
- Economic Impact: Proper timing in investments could lead to better economic outcomes and support for the administration's overall goals.
- Strategic Focus: Emphasizing a more calculated approach to investment decisions is crucial for achieving desired results.
- Policy Recommendations: Experts suggest that refining investment timing could enhance the administration's economic policies and initiatives.
Market Update: Oil Price Drop and Tech Stock Upgrades
- Oil Price Fluctuations: U.S. benchmark WTI crude prices have fallen below $90 a barrel, despite being up over 50% year-to-date, indicating market optimism regarding improved U.S.-Iran relations, yet geopolitical risks continue to loom over oil prices.
- Tech Stock Rating Changes: Intuit was upgraded to buy from hold by Rothschild & Co Redburn, with its stock rising over 30% since late February, although it remains down 28.5% for the year, reflecting a recovery in market confidence in its software products.
- Cybersecurity Stock Bounce: Morgan Stanley upgraded CrowdStrike from hold to buy, with its stock up over 20% from last month's low, highlighting the positive impact of AI technology on the cybersecurity sector and indicating optimistic market expectations for future growth.
- Hewlett Packard Enterprise's Positive Outlook: Despite memory cost pressures, the company raised its full-year earnings outlook, with reported quarterly revenues slightly below expectations but gross margins and adjusted EPS exceeding forecasts, demonstrating strong demand in the data center buildout.
Vertiv's Surge in Data Center Cooling Market
- Institutional Investment Surge: Since Q3 2025, 920 institutional investors have opened or expanded positions in Vertiv, with BlackRock and State Street increasing their stakes by 2.38% and 2.29%, respectively, indicating strong confidence in the company's growth prospects.
- Strong Financial Performance: In 2025, Vertiv's net sales reached $10.23 billion, a 26% increase year-over-year, exceeding guidance by $30 million, reflecting robust demand for data center cooling infrastructure.
- Profitability Improvement: Vertiv's adjusted EPS grew by 47% year-over-year, with projections for 2026 EPS to hit $6.15, showcasing the company's sustained growth potential in the AI-driven market.
- Attractive Valuation: Although the current P/E ratio stands at 73.24, down from 75.74 in 2024, its PEG ratio of 0.80 suggests that Vertiv's stock remains undervalued, attracting investor interest amid anticipated future earnings growth.
Surge in Demand for Vertiv's Cooling Systems
- Investment Surge: Institutional investors are flocking to Vertiv due to skyrocketing demand for cooling systems in data centers, with 920 institutions opening or expanding positions as of September 30, 2025, indicating strong market confidence in its future growth.
- Strong Financial Performance: Vertiv's net sales reached $10.23 billion in 2025, a 26% increase year-over-year, exceeding guidance by $30 million, showcasing its robust competitiveness in the rapidly growing AI infrastructure market.
- Profitability Improvement: In Q4 2025, Vertiv's adjusted EPS surged 47% to $1.36, with projections for 2026 indicating a continued growth of 28%, further solidifying its leadership position in the industry.
- Reasonable Market Valuation: Although Vertiv's current P/E ratio stands at 73.24, down from 75.74 in 2024, its PEG ratio of 0.80 suggests that the stock remains undervalued in light of anticipated future earnings growth, attracting more investor interest.
Investor Confidence Shaken in Private Credit Market
- Market Confidence Shaken: Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood highlighted that the $1.8 trillion private credit market is facing a crisis of confidence due to redemption limits and bankruptcies, particularly as many companies founded during COVID are now struggling to refinance their debts, leading to investor panic.
- Increased Yield Risks: Although private credit promises 10-12% bond-like yields, the risk associated with these returns has significantly increased compared to the 4% yield on Treasuries, causing investors to realize that such yields are not risk-free, thus impacting market sentiment.
- Tech Sector Challenges: Private equity and private credit firms investing in software-as-a-service (SaaS) are also experiencing declines, as concerns grow that AI and platform-as-a-service companies may undermine the relevance of the software sector, further exacerbating market unease.
- Blue Owl Capital's Strategic Shift: Blue Owl Capital announced a pivot to accelerate redemptions and liquidated $1.4 trillion in assets to return capital to investors; despite CEO Craig Packer describing this as a “strategic transaction,” the company's shares have plunged nearly 36% year-to-date, indicating a significant erosion of investor confidence.
Investors Should Rebuild Bond Allocations, Says JPMorgan
- Stable Bond Market: Despite concerns over the U.S.-Iran tensions and rising oil prices, the bond market has held up well over the past week, with the 10-year Treasury yield remaining between 3.9% and 4.3%, indicating that fixed-income investments remain attractive.
- Underweight Fixed Income: Bob Michele from JPMorgan highlights that many investors have been under-allocated to fixed income over the past few years, leading to imbalanced portfolios, but there are signs that investors are now looking to the bond market for diversification.
- Increased Bond ETF Inflows: State Street reported that bond ETFs saw inflows of $52 billion in February, marking the second consecutive month above $50 billion, indicating a trend of investors seeking to diversify away from equities and enhance their fixed-income allocations.
- Emerging Market Appeal: Michele expresses optimism about emerging markets such as Mexico, Colombia, and Brazil, as well as Hungary, Romania, and Poland, noting that these markets offer high real yields of around 9%, which is attractive in an environment where central banks are effectively managing growth and inflation.
Investors Are Abandoning Private Credit While Trump Has Ambitious Plans for It.
- Investment Timing: The Trump administration is advised to improve its strategy regarding the timing of investments to maximize effectiveness.
- Economic Impact: Proper timing in investments could lead to better economic outcomes and support for the administration's overall goals.
- Strategic Focus: Emphasizing a more calculated approach to investment decisions is crucial for achieving desired results.
- Policy Recommendations: Experts suggest that refining investment timing could enhance the administration's economic policies and initiatives.
