Bank OZK (OZK) Q4 Earnings Miss Estimates as Credit Loss Provisions Rise 36%

Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst

OZK+0.09%

Source: seekingalpha

Updated: Jan 20 2026

0mins

Source: seekingalpha

Earnings Miss: Bank OZK reported a Q4 GAAP EPS of $1.53, falling short of the analyst estimate of $1.58 and down from $1.59 in Q3, indicating a decline in profitability.
Rising Credit Loss Provisions: Provisions for credit losses increased to $50.6 million, up 4.7% from the previous quarter and 36% year-over-year, reflecting heightened credit risk that may pressure future earnings.
Net Interest Income Fluctuations: Q4 net interest income was $407 million, exceeding the Visible Alpha consensus of $397.1 million, although it decreased from $413.9 million in the prior quarter, highlighting income volatility.
Record Real Estate Loans: The real estate specialties group achieved loan originations of $1.61 billion, the best quarterly performance in two years, despite the full-year 2025 total of $5.03 billion being lower than 2024's $5.41 billion, indicating increasing market competition challenges.

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OZK

$46.84+Infinity%1D

Analyst Views on OZK

Wall Street analysts forecast OZK stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for OZK is 53.00 USD with a low forecast of 40.00 USD and a high forecast of 67.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

8 Analyst Rating

2 Buy

5 Hold

1 Sell

Hold

Current: 46.800

Low

40.00

Averages

53.00

High

67.00

Current: 46.800

Low

40.00

Averages

53.00

High

67.00

Morgan Stanley

Manan Gosalia

Equal Weight

downgrade

$59 -> $57

2026-01-22

Reason

Morgan Stanley

Manan Gosalia

Price Target

$59 -> $57

AI Analysis

2026-01-22

downgrade

Equal Weight

Reason

Morgan Stanley analyst Manan Gosalia lowered the firm's price target on Bank OZK to $57 from $59 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. Q4 EPS of $1.53 slightly missed the consensus estimate as better net interest income was more than offset by higher provision, notes the analyst, who decreased the firm's 2026 and 2027 EPS estimates 2% and 3%, respectively, on higher provision estimates.

Stephens

Overweight

downgrade

$64 -> $62

2026-01-22

Reason

Stephens

Price Target

$64 -> $62

2026-01-22

downgrade

Overweight

Reason

Stephens lowered the firm's price target on Bank OZK to $62 from $64 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares following earnings. The firm continues to believe there is "limited stock downside" and anticipates improving sentiment as investors focus on 2027, which is expected to deliver low double-digit loan growth, the analyst noted.

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About OZK

Bank OZK (the Bank) is a regional bank, which provides a range of financial solutions. The Bank offers a range of products, include mobile and online banking, personal checking, personal savings, debit cards, credit card account access, business checking, business aviation group, trust services, and wealth. Its personal banking includes checkings, savings, loans, home lending, and credit cards. Its business banking includes checkings, savings, loans, treasury management, merchant services, and specialties. Its online banking enables users to manage their accounts, pay bills, transfer funds, view electronic account statements, and others. Its wealth services provide investment management services, custodial bank, retirement planning, employee benefit plans and endowments, foundations, and charitable contributions. It conducts banking operations in over 260 offices in nine states including Arkansas, Georgia, Florida, North Carolina, Texas, Tennessee, New York, California and Mississippi.

About the author

Emily J. Thompson

Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.