Argentina's Stocks and U.S.-Listed ETFs Surge Following Milei's Party's Major Victory in Midterm Elections
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Oct 27 2025
0mins
Should l Buy YPF?
Source: SeekingAlpha
Election Results Impact: President Javier Milei's party achieved significant victories in Argentina's midterm elections, leading to a positive reaction in financial markets and ensuring a U.S. financial bailout deal.
Stock Market Surge: Following the election results, Argentina-related stocks saw substantial gains in U.S. premarket trading, with notable increases in companies like Banco BBVA Argentina and Grupo Financiero Galicia.
Economic Challenges: Argentina's economy has faced difficulties, but the recent election outcome and the finalized $20 billion currency swap framework with the U.S. are seen as steps towards stabilization.
Voter Support: Milei's party, La Libertad Avanza, garnered approximately 41% of the votes, while the opposition Peronist coalition received around 31%, reflecting strong voter backing for Milei's economic reforms.
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Analyst Views on YPF
Wall Street analysts forecast YPF stock price to fall
3 Analyst Rating
2 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 43.260
Low
39.40
Averages
41.13
High
44.00
Current: 43.260
Low
39.40
Averages
41.13
High
44.00
About YPF
YPF SA, also known as Yacimientos Petroliferos Fiscales, is an Argentina-based company in the energy sector operating a fully integrated oil and gas chain. The Company operates through the segments, including Exploration and Production, Downstream, and Corporate and Other. The Company's Exploration and Production segment includes exploration and production activities, natural gas and crude oil purchases, sales of natural gas, and to a lesser extent crude oil, to third parties and intersegment sales of crude oil, natural gas and its byproducts. The Company's Downstream segment is engaged in the refining, transport, purchase of crude oil and natural gas from third parties and intersegment sales, and marketing of crude oil, natural gas, refined products, petrochemicals, electric power generation and natural gas distribution. The Company's Corporate and Other segment carries out other activities.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Market Position Advantage: YPF controls the largest acreage and high-quality drilling locations in Argentina's Vaca Muerta shale formation, creating an irreplaceable geological advantage that secures its dominant position in global resource competition.
- Operational Efficiency Improvement: With industry-leading lifting costs of $4.4 per BOE, significantly lower than global peers, and a commanding 55% market share, YPF demonstrates strong competitiveness in the oil and gas sector.
- Policy Support and Market Potential: Regulatory tailwinds under Argentina's RIGI framework and long-duration concessions position YPF as a critical national energy provider, enhancing its pricing power and market stability.
- Leadership Change and Financial Performance: Under CEO Horacio Marín, YPF has achieved record EBITDA and disciplined capital allocation, showcasing its potential as a high-quality, undervalued energy platform with significant long-term growth prospects.
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- Judgment Background: In 2023, a U.S. District Court ruled that Argentina violated investors' rights during the 2012 nationalization of YPF, but the Second Circuit Court of Appeals overturned this decision on March 27, citing misinterpretation of Argentine law, which has significant implications for investor confidence.
- Litigation Funding Impact: Burford Capital, which financed the lawsuit and would have received a substantial portion of the award, stated it might pursue arbitration and appeal to the full Second Circuit or the U.S. Supreme Court; however, its shares plummeted by approximately 40% after last month's ruling, reflecting market concerns about its future prospects.
- Market Reaction: The volatility in YPF and Burford Capital's stock prices highlights investor sensitivity to legal risks, particularly as uncertainties in Argentina's legal environment increase, which could affect future investment decisions and overall market confidence.
See More
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Trump's Expectations: Former U.S. President Trump mentioned that U.S.-Iran negotiation representatives may meet this weekend, anticipating a final agreement to end the war.
Timeline for Agreement: Trump expressed confidence that an agreement could be reached within one or two days.
Context of Negotiations: The discussions are part of ongoing efforts to resolve tensions between the U.S. and Iran.
See More
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- Innovative Technology Deployment: This contract will see the first international deployment of Halliburton's Zeus electric fracturing services, alongside the Octiv Auto Frac service, enhancing consistency and efficiency in onsite execution and pushing industry technological advancements.
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