Adjusted EBITDA Expected at $1.19B-$1.24B
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 11 2026
0mins
Should l Buy AM?
Sees adjusted EBITDA $1.19B-$1.24B, CapEx $190M-$220M, adjusted free cash flow $330M-$390M.
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Analyst Views on AM
Wall Street analysts forecast AM stock price to fall
3 Analyst Rating
0 Buy
1 Hold
2 Sell
Moderate Sell
Current: 20.970
Low
19.00
Averages
19.67
High
20.00
Current: 20.970
Low
19.00
Averages
19.67
High
20.00
About AM
Antero Midstream Corporation is a midstream energy company. The Company owns, operates and develops midstream gathering, compression, processing and fractionation assets located in the Appalachian Basin, as well as integrated water assets that primarily service Antero Resources Corporation’s (Antero Resources) properties. The Company’s assets consist of gathering systems and compression facilities, water handling and blending facilities and interests in processing and fractionation plants. The Company’s segments include gathering and processing and water handling. The gathering and processing segment includes a network of gathering pipelines and compressor stations that collect and process production from Antero Resources’ wells in the Appalachian Basin, as well as equity in earnings from its investments in the Joint Venture and Stonewall. The water handling segment includes two independent systems that deliver water from sources and other fluid handling services.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Antero Midstream Corporation's Share Price Soars 11.84%
- Earnings Beat: Antero Midstream Corporation reported Q4 2025 results with an adjusted EPS of $0.28, exceeding forecasts by $0.01, indicating robust profitability despite slightly missing revenue expectations, which reflects strong market confidence in its earnings potential.
- Revenue and Cash Flow Growth: Although Q4 2025 revenue was approximately $287.5 million, falling short of expectations by $4.34 million, the company's free cash flow after dividends increased by 30% for the full year, showcasing success in capital-efficient organic growth and throughput.
- Consistent EBITDA Growth: The company achieved a 7% year-over-year EBITDA growth for 2025, marking its eleventh consecutive year of growth since its IPO in 2014, demonstrating stability and sustained profitability within the industry.
- Optimistic Outlook: Antero Midstream has a positive outlook for FY 2026, targeting net income between $485 million and $535 million, a 23% increase from 2025, and forecasting adjusted EBITDA of $1.19 to $1.24 billion, further solidifying its market position.
See More
Energy Stocks Signal Caution for Momentum Investors
- Overbought Warning: As of February 13, 2026, Antero Midstream Corp and SFL Corporation Ltd in the energy sector are identified as major overbought stocks, potentially signaling caution for momentum investors and reflecting underlying market risks.
- SFL Earnings Surprise: On February 11, SFL reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter sales results, driving its stock price up approximately 22% over the past month, indicating strong market performance.
- Stock Price Movement: SFL shares rose 2.6% to close at $10.26 on Thursday, nearing its 52-week high of $10.29, suggesting continued investor confidence in the stock.
- Relative Strength Index: With an RSI of 83.1, significantly above the 70 overbought threshold, SFL indicates potential caution for investors, as it may face risks of price corrections.
See More
Antero Midstream Acquires HG Midstream for $1.1 Billion, Driving Continued Growth
- Acquisition Drives Growth: Antero Midstream's $1.1 billion acquisition of HG Midstream adds over 400 highly economic undeveloped locations, expected to enhance competitiveness for capital development and infrastructure projects in 2026, thereby solidifying its market position in the Marcellus shale.
- Strong Financial Performance: EBITDA grew 7% year-over-year in 2025, reaching $285 million, marking the 11th consecutive year of growth since the 2014 IPO, demonstrating the company's success in capital-efficient organic growth and throughput enhancement.
- Significant Increase in Free Cash Flow: Free cash flow after dividends reached $325 million in 2025, a 30% increase, allowing the company to reduce leverage to 2.7x and repurchase approximately $48 million in shares, thereby enhancing financial stability.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: Management forecasts adjusted EBITDA exceeding $1.2 billion in 2026, an 8% year-over-year increase, with free cash flow projected at $360 million, an 11% increase, while maintaining a balanced return of capital program to ensure a strong balance sheet within a low 3x leverage range.
See More
Antero Midstream Highlights Q4 2025 Earnings Call
- HG Midstream Acquisition: Antero Midstream completed the $1.1 billion acquisition of HG Midstream, adding over 400 highly economic undeveloped locations that will immediately compete for development projects in 2026, thereby enhancing the company's competitive position in the Marcellus Shale.
- Sustained EBITDA Growth: In 2025, Antero Midstream achieved a 7% EBITDA growth, marking the eleventh consecutive year of growth since its 2014 IPO, while free cash flow after dividends increased by 30%, reflecting improved capital efficiency.
- 2026 Capital Budget: The company plans to invest between $190 million and $220 million in 2026, covering routine and growth-oriented projects, particularly expenditures related to integrating acquired assets, which are expected to enhance downstream deliverability in the dry gas segment.
- Future Growth Expectations: Antero Midstream forecasts EBITDA exceeding $1.2 billion in 2026, an 8% year-over-year increase, with a planned $360 million in free cash flow after dividends, indicating the company's ability to sustain shareholder returns while maintaining low leverage.
See More
Antero Midstream Reports Q4 2025 Results and 2026 Guidance
- Strong Financial Performance: Antero Midstream reported Q4 2025 revenues of $297 million, a 3.3% increase year-over-year, with the Gathering and Processing segment contributing $241 million, indicating stable growth in core operations.
- Cash Flow Growth: The adjusted free cash flow for 2025 was $192 million, showing a decline from 2024, but the company anticipates achieving $755 to $815 million in free cash flow for 2026, reflecting future capital efficiency and financial health.
- Capital Expenditure Plans: The 2026 capital budget is projected to be between $190 million and $220 million, with approximately $145 million allocated for gathering and compression infrastructure, aimed at enhancing downstream deliverability of dry gas assets and strengthening market competitiveness.
- Share Repurchase Strategy: In Q4 2025, Antero Midstream repurchased 2.7 million shares for $48 million, demonstrating a commitment to shareholder returns, while as of December 31, 2025, the remaining repurchase capacity stood at $336 million, boosting market confidence.
See More
Antero Midstream Set to Announce Q4 Earnings on February 11
- Earnings Announcement Date: Antero Midstream is set to release its Q4 earnings on February 11 after market close, with a consensus EPS estimate of $0.27, reflecting a 3.8% year-over-year growth, indicating stability in profitability.
- Revenue Expectations: The anticipated revenue for Q4 is $291.82 million, representing a 1.5% year-over-year increase, which highlights the company's ongoing growth potential in the natural gas sector despite market fluctuations.
- Historical Performance Review: Over the past two years, Antero Midstream has only beaten EPS estimates 25% of the time while surpassing revenue estimates 63% of the time, indicating challenges in managing market expectations.
- Estimate Revision Dynamics: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen no upward revisions and two downward adjustments, while revenue estimates experienced one upward and one downward revision, suggesting a cautious market outlook on the company's future performance.
See More
Antero Midstream Corporation's Share Price Soars 11.84%
- Earnings Beat: Antero Midstream Corporation reported Q4 2025 results with an adjusted EPS of $0.28, exceeding forecasts by $0.01, indicating robust profitability despite slightly missing revenue expectations, which reflects strong market confidence in its earnings potential.
- Revenue and Cash Flow Growth: Although Q4 2025 revenue was approximately $287.5 million, falling short of expectations by $4.34 million, the company's free cash flow after dividends increased by 30% for the full year, showcasing success in capital-efficient organic growth and throughput.
- Consistent EBITDA Growth: The company achieved a 7% year-over-year EBITDA growth for 2025, marking its eleventh consecutive year of growth since its IPO in 2014, demonstrating stability and sustained profitability within the industry.
- Optimistic Outlook: Antero Midstream has a positive outlook for FY 2026, targeting net income between $485 million and $535 million, a 23% increase from 2025, and forecasting adjusted EBITDA of $1.19 to $1.24 billion, further solidifying its market position.
See More
Energy Stocks Signal Caution for Momentum Investors
- Overbought Warning: As of February 13, 2026, Antero Midstream Corp and SFL Corporation Ltd in the energy sector are identified as major overbought stocks, potentially signaling caution for momentum investors and reflecting underlying market risks.
- SFL Earnings Surprise: On February 11, SFL reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter sales results, driving its stock price up approximately 22% over the past month, indicating strong market performance.
- Stock Price Movement: SFL shares rose 2.6% to close at $10.26 on Thursday, nearing its 52-week high of $10.29, suggesting continued investor confidence in the stock.
- Relative Strength Index: With an RSI of 83.1, significantly above the 70 overbought threshold, SFL indicates potential caution for investors, as it may face risks of price corrections.
See More
Antero Midstream Acquires HG Midstream for $1.1 Billion, Driving Continued Growth
- Acquisition Drives Growth: Antero Midstream's $1.1 billion acquisition of HG Midstream adds over 400 highly economic undeveloped locations, expected to enhance competitiveness for capital development and infrastructure projects in 2026, thereby solidifying its market position in the Marcellus shale.
- Strong Financial Performance: EBITDA grew 7% year-over-year in 2025, reaching $285 million, marking the 11th consecutive year of growth since the 2014 IPO, demonstrating the company's success in capital-efficient organic growth and throughput enhancement.
- Significant Increase in Free Cash Flow: Free cash flow after dividends reached $325 million in 2025, a 30% increase, allowing the company to reduce leverage to 2.7x and repurchase approximately $48 million in shares, thereby enhancing financial stability.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: Management forecasts adjusted EBITDA exceeding $1.2 billion in 2026, an 8% year-over-year increase, with free cash flow projected at $360 million, an 11% increase, while maintaining a balanced return of capital program to ensure a strong balance sheet within a low 3x leverage range.
See More
Antero Midstream Highlights Q4 2025 Earnings Call
- HG Midstream Acquisition: Antero Midstream completed the $1.1 billion acquisition of HG Midstream, adding over 400 highly economic undeveloped locations that will immediately compete for development projects in 2026, thereby enhancing the company's competitive position in the Marcellus Shale.
- Sustained EBITDA Growth: In 2025, Antero Midstream achieved a 7% EBITDA growth, marking the eleventh consecutive year of growth since its 2014 IPO, while free cash flow after dividends increased by 30%, reflecting improved capital efficiency.
- 2026 Capital Budget: The company plans to invest between $190 million and $220 million in 2026, covering routine and growth-oriented projects, particularly expenditures related to integrating acquired assets, which are expected to enhance downstream deliverability in the dry gas segment.
- Future Growth Expectations: Antero Midstream forecasts EBITDA exceeding $1.2 billion in 2026, an 8% year-over-year increase, with a planned $360 million in free cash flow after dividends, indicating the company's ability to sustain shareholder returns while maintaining low leverage.
See More
Antero Midstream Reports Q4 2025 Results and 2026 Guidance
- Strong Financial Performance: Antero Midstream reported Q4 2025 revenues of $297 million, a 3.3% increase year-over-year, with the Gathering and Processing segment contributing $241 million, indicating stable growth in core operations.
- Cash Flow Growth: The adjusted free cash flow for 2025 was $192 million, showing a decline from 2024, but the company anticipates achieving $755 to $815 million in free cash flow for 2026, reflecting future capital efficiency and financial health.
- Capital Expenditure Plans: The 2026 capital budget is projected to be between $190 million and $220 million, with approximately $145 million allocated for gathering and compression infrastructure, aimed at enhancing downstream deliverability of dry gas assets and strengthening market competitiveness.
- Share Repurchase Strategy: In Q4 2025, Antero Midstream repurchased 2.7 million shares for $48 million, demonstrating a commitment to shareholder returns, while as of December 31, 2025, the remaining repurchase capacity stood at $336 million, boosting market confidence.
See More
Antero Midstream Set to Announce Q4 Earnings on February 11
- Earnings Announcement Date: Antero Midstream is set to release its Q4 earnings on February 11 after market close, with a consensus EPS estimate of $0.27, reflecting a 3.8% year-over-year growth, indicating stability in profitability.
- Revenue Expectations: The anticipated revenue for Q4 is $291.82 million, representing a 1.5% year-over-year increase, which highlights the company's ongoing growth potential in the natural gas sector despite market fluctuations.
- Historical Performance Review: Over the past two years, Antero Midstream has only beaten EPS estimates 25% of the time while surpassing revenue estimates 63% of the time, indicating challenges in managing market expectations.
- Estimate Revision Dynamics: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen no upward revisions and two downward adjustments, while revenue estimates experienced one upward and one downward revision, suggesting a cautious market outlook on the company's future performance.
See More
