2026 AI Market Predictions: Alphabet's Gemini to Surpass ChatGPT
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 20 2026
0mins
Source: Fool
- AI Market Competition: In 2026, Alphabet's Gemini is expected to achieve market share parity with OpenAI's ChatGPT, which saw a 19-point drop to 68% market share over the past year, while Gemini gained 13 points to reach 18%, indicating strong momentum in generative AI.
- Solar Industry Outlook: Experts predict the solar industry will outperform the market in 2026, with Tyler Crowe asserting that solar is the short-term solution for AI power needs, as its deployment speed surpasses that of natural gas turbines, potentially leading to significant growth in the coming years.
- Housing Market Recovery: Matt Frankel forecasts a 30% rise in average homebuilder stocks in 2026, driven by increased demand for new homes and anticipated rate cuts, which could attract more buyers and stimulate industry recovery.
- Battery Storage Demand: As solar energy becomes more prevalent, battery storage systems will be crucial; Tyler Crowe noted that in 2024, battery systems were the fourth largest source of added grid capacity, highlighting their importance in mitigating solar energy's intermittency.
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Analyst Views on GOOG
Wall Street analysts forecast GOOG stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GOOG is 336.08 USD with a low forecast of 255.00 USD and a high forecast of 400.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
15 Analyst Rating
14 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 336.280
Low
255.00
Averages
336.08
High
400.00
Current: 336.280
Low
255.00
Averages
336.08
High
400.00
About GOOG
Alphabet Inc. is a holding company. The Company's segments include Google Services, Google Cloud, and Other Bets. The Google Services segment includes products and services such as ads, Android, Chrome, devices, Google Maps, Google Play, Search, and YouTube. The Google Cloud segment includes infrastructure and platform services, collaboration tools, and other services for enterprise customers. Its Other Bets segment is engaged in the sale of healthcare-related services and Internet services. Its Google Cloud provides enterprise-ready cloud services, including Google Cloud Platform and Google Workspace. Google Cloud Platform provides access to solutions such as artificial intelligence (AI) offerings, including its AI infrastructure, Vertex AI platform, and Gemini for Google Cloud; cybersecurity, and data and analytics. Google Workspace includes cloud-based communication and collaboration tools for enterprises, such as Calendar, Gmail, Docs, Drive, and Meet.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
SoftBank to Increase Investment in OpenAI
- Investment Expansion: SoftBank is in talks to invest up to $30 billion more in OpenAI, with the funding round potentially raising a total of $100 billion, thereby increasing OpenAI's valuation to approximately $830 billion, reflecting SoftBank's strong confidence in the AI sector.
- Strategic Bet: CEO Masayoshi Son describes his investment in OpenAI as an 'all-in' bet, aimed at enhancing the company's position in the AI race, particularly as competition with Google intensifies.
- Equity Structure Change: In December, SoftBank completed a $41 billion investment in OpenAI, acquiring an 11% stake, which further solidifies its influence in the AI field and underscores its commitment to future technological advancements.
- Positive Market Reaction: Although SoftBank declined to comment on the investment, its shares rose by 3.5% in Tokyo, indicating that the market views the increased investment in OpenAI favorably, potentially boosting investor confidence.
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BigBear.ai Faces Sales Decline Risks Amid AI Hype
- Sales Decline Warning: BigBear.ai's revenue fell by 20% in Q3, raising concerns among investors despite a 152% stock price increase over three years, potentially impacting its future financing capabilities due to lack of profitability and widening losses.
- Surging AI Demand: Micron Technology's NAND flash and DRAM products are in high demand, with Q1 revenue rising 57% to $13.6 billion and non-GAAP EPS increasing 167% to $4.78, highlighting its critical role in AI infrastructure investment.
- Alphabet's AI Strategy: Alphabet's Gemini chatbot has grown its monthly active users from 400 million to 650 million, with Q3 total sales up 16% to $102 billion and earnings jumping 35% to $2.87 per share, indicating its strengthening competitiveness in the AI sector.
- Investor Attention Shift: While BigBear.ai has garnered significant attention, its price-to-sales ratio of 13 compared to the tech sector's average of 9 raises concerns, suggesting investors should consider more profitable AI stocks like Micron and Alphabet.
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