Invesco's Stock Valuation Indicates Significant Overvaluation
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 4d ago
0mins
Should l Buy IVZ?
Source: Yahoo Finance
Invesco Ltd's stock has declined by 4.38%, hitting a 20-day low at $26.53 amid broader market weakness, with the Nasdaq-100 down 1.61% and the S&P 500 down 1.38%.
The recent analysis reveals that Invesco's intrinsic value is estimated at $11.31 per share, indicating a significant overvaluation of 134.5% compared to its current price. This valuation assessment may prompt investors to reassess their strategies, especially given the stock's recent performance decline of 2.3%, 1.5%, and 1.5% over the past 7 days, 30 days, and year-to-date respectively.
The implications of this overvaluation could lead to a shift in investor confidence, as the market dynamics change and investors seek more attractive opportunities.
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Analyst Views on IVZ
Wall Street analysts forecast IVZ stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for IVZ is 28.68 USD with a low forecast of 25.00 USD and a high forecast of 33.50 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
11 Analyst Rating
4 Buy
7 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 25.770
Low
25.00
Averages
28.68
High
33.50
Current: 25.770
Low
25.00
Averages
28.68
High
33.50
About IVZ
Invesco Ltd. is an independent investment management firm. It serves the retail and institutional markets within the investment management industry in the Americas, Europe, Middle East, and Africa and Asia-Pacific in 120 countries. It offers a range of investment strategies across asset classes, investment styles, and geographies. Its asset classes include equity, fixed income, balanced, alternatives and money market. Its retail assets under management include exchange-traded funds, separately managed accounts, individual savings accounts, investment companies with variable capital, investment trusts, open-end mutual funds, unit investment trusts, and variable insurance funds. Its institutional assets include institutional separate accounts, private funds, open-end mutual funds, and collective trust funds. Its client base includes public and private entities, unions, non-profit organizations, endowments, foundations, financial institutions, and sovereign wealth funds.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Invesco Stock Valuation Analysis Reveals Overvaluation
- Stock Performance: Invesco's recent closing price is $26.53, with declines of 2.3%, 1.5%, and 1.5% over the past 7 days, 30 days, and year-to-date respectively, despite a 50.6% increase over the past year, indicating potential risks that could affect investor confidence.
- Valuation Assessment: The Excess Returns model estimates Invesco's intrinsic value at $11.31 per share, suggesting a significant overvaluation of 134.5% compared to the current stock price, which may prompt investors to reassess their investment strategies.
- Price-to-Sales Analysis: Invesco's P/S ratio stands at 1.85x, below the capital markets industry average of 4.12x and peer average of 3.36x, indicating a more conservative pricing in the market that could attract value-seeking investors.
- Future Outlook: The Narratives tool allows investors to dynamically adjust their valuation expectations for Invesco based on the latest information, providing flexibility that may help them seize market opportunities, even though current valuations indicate certain risks.
See More
U.S. ETF Industry Faces Potential Distribution Fee Changes
- Emerging Distribution Fees: U.S. brokerage firms and custodians may soon impose distribution fees on ETF managers, potentially reshaping the cost structure of the $13.5 trillion U.S. ETF industry, particularly after over a decade of zero-commission trading that has disrupted traditional revenue streams.
- Impact of Zero-Commission Trading: Companies like Robinhood have attracted millions of retail investors with zero trading commissions, forcing traditional brokers like Fidelity and Charles Schwab to eliminate ETF trading fees, which, while retaining clients, has significantly impacted their profitability.
- Changing Cost Structure: J.P. Morgan estimates that the current U.S. ETF management fee pool is around $21 billion, and if intermediaries capture 10% to 20% of ETF expense ratios, the industry could incur an additional $2 billion to $4 billion in distribution costs annually, affecting investor returns.
- Market Competitive Landscape: Large ETF issuers may be better positioned under this new fee structure, while mid-sized firms could face greater pressure, particularly niche and actively managed ETFs that may be the first to feel the impact, potentially halting the decline in their expense ratios.
See More
Invesco Reports Fourth Quarter Earnings Beat
- Earnings Beat: Invesco reported adjusted earnings of 62 cents per share for Q4, exceeding the consensus estimate of 58 cents, indicating strong revenue growth and effective expense management that boosts investor confidence.
- Revenue and Margin Growth: The company posted better-than-expected net management fees and performance fees, with an operating margin of 36.4%, surpassing consensus by over 100 basis points, reflecting ongoing improvements in profitability.
- Analyst Rating: Goldman Sachs analyst Alexander Blostein reiterated a Neutral rating on Invesco with a price target of $28.75, indicating a cautiously optimistic outlook on the company's future performance.
- Future Outlook: While management did not provide specific guidance for 2026, they indicated an increase in Alpha Next gen-related expenses, which analysts believe will not significantly alter the upside potential for IVZ's operating margins.
See More
Invesco Reports Q4 Earnings Beat with Strong Revenues
- Earnings Beat: Invesco reported Q4 earnings that exceeded market expectations, showcasing the company's resilience and profitability amid market fluctuations.
- Analyst Rating Maintained: Analyst Alexander Blostein reiterated a Neutral rating for Invesco with a price target of $28.75, reflecting a cautiously optimistic outlook on the company's future performance.
- Revenue Growth Driver: The company achieved strong revenue growth in Q4, indicating sustained demand for its investment management services, which may support future performance.
- Positive Market Reaction: Despite the neutral rating from analysts, the market reacted positively to Invesco's earnings, potentially boosting investor confidence and driving stock price increases.
See More
Invesco Declares Quarterly Dividend of $0.21 per Share
- Quarterly Dividend Declaration: Invesco has declared a quarterly dividend of $0.21 per share, consistent with previous distributions, indicating the company's stable cash flow and shareholder return strategy.
- Dividend Yield: The forward yield of 2.93% reflects the company's attractiveness in the current market environment, potentially drawing more income-focused investors.
- Payment Schedule: The dividend will be payable on March 3, with a record date of February 13 and an ex-dividend date also on February 13, ensuring timely returns for shareholders.
- Financial Performance Highlights: Invesco's Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $0.62 exceeded expectations by $0.04, while revenue reached $1.26 billion, surpassing market consensus by $10 million, showcasing strong net inflows and business growth.
See More
Invesco Reports Strong Q4 Results Exceeding Expectations
- Asset Management Growth: Invesco achieved net long-term inflows of $19.1 billion in Q4 2025, primarily from its ETFs and Index business, exceeding the market expectation of $18.9 billion, indicating strong performance in asset management.
- Revenue and Earnings Improvement: The adjusted EPS for Q4 was $0.62, surpassing the analyst estimate of $0.58, and increased from $0.61 in Q3 and $0.52 a year ago, reflecting ongoing enhancements in profitability.
- Effective Expense Control: Adjusted operating expenses were $801.1 million, below the market expectation of $807.8 million, and while up from $780.2 million in Q3, effective expense management improved the operating margin to 36.4%.
- Share Buybacks and Debt Reduction: Invesco continued to repurchase common shares while further reducing preferred stock and repaying debt, demonstrating strategic decisions aimed at prioritizing capital return and enhancing financial stability.
See More
Invesco Stock Valuation Analysis Reveals Overvaluation
- Stock Performance: Invesco's recent closing price is $26.53, with declines of 2.3%, 1.5%, and 1.5% over the past 7 days, 30 days, and year-to-date respectively, despite a 50.6% increase over the past year, indicating potential risks that could affect investor confidence.
- Valuation Assessment: The Excess Returns model estimates Invesco's intrinsic value at $11.31 per share, suggesting a significant overvaluation of 134.5% compared to the current stock price, which may prompt investors to reassess their investment strategies.
- Price-to-Sales Analysis: Invesco's P/S ratio stands at 1.85x, below the capital markets industry average of 4.12x and peer average of 3.36x, indicating a more conservative pricing in the market that could attract value-seeking investors.
- Future Outlook: The Narratives tool allows investors to dynamically adjust their valuation expectations for Invesco based on the latest information, providing flexibility that may help them seize market opportunities, even though current valuations indicate certain risks.
See More
U.S. ETF Industry Faces Potential Distribution Fee Changes
- Emerging Distribution Fees: U.S. brokerage firms and custodians may soon impose distribution fees on ETF managers, potentially reshaping the cost structure of the $13.5 trillion U.S. ETF industry, particularly after over a decade of zero-commission trading that has disrupted traditional revenue streams.
- Impact of Zero-Commission Trading: Companies like Robinhood have attracted millions of retail investors with zero trading commissions, forcing traditional brokers like Fidelity and Charles Schwab to eliminate ETF trading fees, which, while retaining clients, has significantly impacted their profitability.
- Changing Cost Structure: J.P. Morgan estimates that the current U.S. ETF management fee pool is around $21 billion, and if intermediaries capture 10% to 20% of ETF expense ratios, the industry could incur an additional $2 billion to $4 billion in distribution costs annually, affecting investor returns.
- Market Competitive Landscape: Large ETF issuers may be better positioned under this new fee structure, while mid-sized firms could face greater pressure, particularly niche and actively managed ETFs that may be the first to feel the impact, potentially halting the decline in their expense ratios.
See More
Invesco Reports Fourth Quarter Earnings Beat
- Earnings Beat: Invesco reported adjusted earnings of 62 cents per share for Q4, exceeding the consensus estimate of 58 cents, indicating strong revenue growth and effective expense management that boosts investor confidence.
- Revenue and Margin Growth: The company posted better-than-expected net management fees and performance fees, with an operating margin of 36.4%, surpassing consensus by over 100 basis points, reflecting ongoing improvements in profitability.
- Analyst Rating: Goldman Sachs analyst Alexander Blostein reiterated a Neutral rating on Invesco with a price target of $28.75, indicating a cautiously optimistic outlook on the company's future performance.
- Future Outlook: While management did not provide specific guidance for 2026, they indicated an increase in Alpha Next gen-related expenses, which analysts believe will not significantly alter the upside potential for IVZ's operating margins.
See More
Invesco Reports Q4 Earnings Beat with Strong Revenues
- Earnings Beat: Invesco reported Q4 earnings that exceeded market expectations, showcasing the company's resilience and profitability amid market fluctuations.
- Analyst Rating Maintained: Analyst Alexander Blostein reiterated a Neutral rating for Invesco with a price target of $28.75, reflecting a cautiously optimistic outlook on the company's future performance.
- Revenue Growth Driver: The company achieved strong revenue growth in Q4, indicating sustained demand for its investment management services, which may support future performance.
- Positive Market Reaction: Despite the neutral rating from analysts, the market reacted positively to Invesco's earnings, potentially boosting investor confidence and driving stock price increases.
See More
Invesco Declares Quarterly Dividend of $0.21 per Share
- Quarterly Dividend Declaration: Invesco has declared a quarterly dividend of $0.21 per share, consistent with previous distributions, indicating the company's stable cash flow and shareholder return strategy.
- Dividend Yield: The forward yield of 2.93% reflects the company's attractiveness in the current market environment, potentially drawing more income-focused investors.
- Payment Schedule: The dividend will be payable on March 3, with a record date of February 13 and an ex-dividend date also on February 13, ensuring timely returns for shareholders.
- Financial Performance Highlights: Invesco's Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $0.62 exceeded expectations by $0.04, while revenue reached $1.26 billion, surpassing market consensus by $10 million, showcasing strong net inflows and business growth.
See More
Invesco Reports Strong Q4 Results Exceeding Expectations
- Asset Management Growth: Invesco achieved net long-term inflows of $19.1 billion in Q4 2025, primarily from its ETFs and Index business, exceeding the market expectation of $18.9 billion, indicating strong performance in asset management.
- Revenue and Earnings Improvement: The adjusted EPS for Q4 was $0.62, surpassing the analyst estimate of $0.58, and increased from $0.61 in Q3 and $0.52 a year ago, reflecting ongoing enhancements in profitability.
- Effective Expense Control: Adjusted operating expenses were $801.1 million, below the market expectation of $807.8 million, and while up from $780.2 million in Q3, effective expense management improved the operating margin to 36.4%.
- Share Buybacks and Debt Reduction: Invesco continued to repurchase common shares while further reducing preferred stock and repaying debt, demonstrating strategic decisions aimed at prioritizing capital return and enhancing financial stability.
See More
