Humana Inc. (NYSE:HUM) shares fell 17.31% in pre-market trading, hitting a 20-day low, following concerns over the Trump administration's proposal for nearly flat Medicare reimbursement rates for 2027.
The proposal indicates an average payment increase of only 0.09%, significantly below the anticipated 4%-6% rise, which raises revenue pressure on insurers like Humana. This has led to a decline in investor confidence, as the market reacted negatively to the potential impact on future profitability. Additionally, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) projects a payment change of only 2.54%, which also falls short of market expectations, further contributing to the stock's decline.
The implications of this proposal could be significant for Humana and other health insurers, as it reflects ongoing financial pressures in the sector. Investors are closely monitoring the situation, as the flat reimbursement rates could hinder growth and profitability in the coming years.
Wall Street analysts forecast HUM stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HUM is 290.39 USD with a low forecast of 231.00 USD and a high forecast of 344.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
19 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast HUM stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HUM is 290.39 USD with a low forecast of 231.00 USD and a high forecast of 344.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
6 Buy
12 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 196.670
Low
231.00
Averages
290.39
High
344.00
Current: 196.670
Low
231.00
Averages
290.39
High
344.00
Wells Fargo
Overweight -> Equal Weight
downgrade
$290
2026-01-07
Reason
Wells Fargo
Price Target
$290
AI Analysis
2026-01-07
downgrade
Overweight -> Equal Weight
Reason
Wells Fargo downgraded Humana to Equal Weight from Overweight with a $290 price target.
Wells Fargo
Stephen Baxter
Overweight -> Equal Weight
downgrade
$290
2026-01-07
Reason
Wells Fargo
Stephen Baxter
Price Target
$290
2026-01-07
downgrade
Overweight -> Equal Weight
Reason
As previously reported, Wells Fargo analyst Stephen Baxter downgraded Humana to Equal Weight from Overweight with a $290 price target. For managed care organizations, the firm is most constructive on Medicare Advantage with uncertainty high for Medicaid/Exchanges. Wells sees a more difficult backdrop for hospitals in 2026 as post-COVID tailwinds wane and legislative risks near. Distributor debate remains revisions vs. multiples. Regarding Humana, the firm is more cautious on achievability of the company's margin objective in 2026 given lack of benefit cuts.
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Bernstein
Outperform
maintain
$341 -> $344
2026-01-06
Reason
Bernstein
Price Target
$341 -> $344
2026-01-06
maintain
Outperform
Reason
Bernstein raised the firm's price target on Humana to $344 from $341 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm sees a sector turnaround in the government managed care organization sector beginning in 2026, but expects to see bumps in the recovery. Bernstein believes all MCO sectors present attractive entry points, with Medicare Advantage likely to see the nearest term earnings improvements and Medicaid representing the most attractive valuations.
Barclays
Equal Weight
maintain
$234 -> $245
2026-01-05
Reason
Barclays
Price Target
$234 -> $245
2026-01-05
maintain
Equal Weight
Reason
Barclays raised the firm's price target on Humana to $245 from $234 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm sees managed care stocks benefiting in 2026 from the prospects of margin expansion and rotation away from artificial intelligence-related stocks toward "de-rated underperformers."
About HUM
Humana Inc. provides Humana insurance services and CenterWell health care services. The Company's segments include Insurance and CenterWell. The Insurance segment consists of Medicare benefits, marketed to individuals or directly via group Medicare accounts, as well as its contract with CMS to administer the Limited Income Newly Eligible Transition (LI-NET) prescription drug plan program and contracts with various states to provide Medicaid, dual eligible demonstration, and Long-Term Support Services benefits. This segment also includes products consisting of employer group commercial fully-insured medical and specialty health insurance benefits marketed to individuals and employer groups. The CenterWell segment includes its pharmacy, primary care, and home solutions operations. The segment also includes its strategic partnerships with WCAS to develop and operate senior-focused, payor-agnostic, primary care centers, as well as its minority ownership interest in hospice operations.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
