Should You Buy Humana Inc (HUM) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
195.250
1 Day change
-0.72%
52 Week Range
315.350
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/29
Not a good buy right now for a beginner long-term investor who is impatient. HUM is in a sharp downtrend with negative momentum and meaningful near-term policy/earnings headwinds; despite being extremely oversold (which can spark a bounce), the risk of further downside into the Feb-11 earnings is high. I would hold off on new buying here.
Technical Analysis
Price/Trend: HUM closed at 193.67 after a large -6.69% regular-session drop, confirming a strong bearish trend and heavy selling pressure.
Momentum: MACD histogram (-8.377) is below zero and expanding negatively, which signals accelerating downside momentum.
Overbought/Oversold: RSI(6) at ~6.9 is extremely oversold, implying a short-term rebound is possible, but oversold readings can persist in strong downtrends.
Levels: The stock is below S1 (208.622) and is hovering just above S2 support (186.387). A break below ~186 would be technically damaging. Pivot resistance is far overhead (~244.6), highlighting how stretched the decline has been.
Pattern/Quant tilt: Similar-pattern stats suggest elevated near-term downside odds (70% chance of -3.49% next day, -5.41% next week), with only a modest +0.54% one-month expectation—consistent with a bear trend that may not be finished.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Neutral
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment read: Open Interest Put/Call at 0.62 suggests positioning is more call-heavy (less hedged than typical), which can be interpreted as relatively bullish longer-dated positioning. However, the near-term Option Volume Put/Call at 0.99 is essentially neutral, indicating no strong one-day bullish impulse.
Volatility: 30D IV ~41% with IV percentile ~21 and IV rank ~18 indicates implied volatility is not elevated versus its own history—options are not pricing extreme panic relative to the past, despite the sharp equity selloff.
Technical Summary
Sell
10
Buy
6
Positive Catalysts
Valuation/mean-reversion setup implied by extremely oversold RSI—conditions are in place for a technical bounce.
Some Wall Street optimism for 2026 recovery in managed care: Bernstein reiterates Outperform (PT
and Jefferies upgraded to Buy (PT 313), suggesting a longer-term turnaround thesis remains.
Sector rotation narrative (Barclays): potential for money rotating from AI winners into “de-rated underperformers” in 2026 could help sentiment.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Medicare Advantage reimbursement/policy uncertainty: news highlights projected average reimbursement increases around ~0.09% in 2027 and ongoing policy pressure—directly negative for margin outlook.
Event risk: Next earnings (QDEC
on 2026-02-11 pre-market with Street EPS estimate shown as negative (Est: -4.01), which can keep pressure on the stock into the print.
Trend damage: strong bearish momentum (MACD expanding negatively) and price sitting below key support (S1 ~208.
raises the probability of retesting/breaking S2 (~186.4).
Industry read-through: peers (e.g., Elevance) moving down on guidance/rate concerns reinforces negative tape for the group.
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
Growth: Revenue rose to $32.649B (+11.06% YoY), showing top-line growth remains intact.
Profitability: Net income fell to $195M (-59.38% YoY) and EPS dropped to 1.61 (-59.45% YoY), indicating significant margin/medical-cost pressure and weakening earnings power—an unfavorable trend for a long-term entry that relies on stable compounding.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent rating/target trend: Mixed and volatile.
- Bearish shift: Wells Fargo downgraded to Equal Weight (PT 290) on 2026 margin achievability concerns; Morgan Stanley and Truist lowered targets and stayed cautious (Equal Weight/Hold).
- Bullish/constructive: Jefferies upgraded to Buy (PT 313) citing Stars diversification and potential share gains; Bernstein kept Outperform and nudged PT higher (344).
Wall Street pros vs cons summary:
Pros: Belief in sector turnaround starting 2026; potential Stars/plan mix improvements; some see current levels as an attractive entry point.
Cons: High execution risk, uncertain reimbursement/policy backdrop, and near-term margin pressure—core reasons multiple firms remain Equal Weight/Hold.
Other flows: Hedge funds and insiders are described as Neutral; no recent Congress trading data available; no notable politician/influential-figure buying/selling provided.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals: No signal on given stock today.
Wall Street analysts forecast HUM stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HUM is 290.39 USD with a low forecast of 231 USD and a high forecast of 344 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
19 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast HUM stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HUM is 290.39 USD with a low forecast of 231 USD and a high forecast of 344 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
6 Buy
12 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 196.670
Low
231
Averages
290.39
High
344
Current: 196.670
Low
231
Averages
290.39
High
344
Wells Fargo
Overweight -> Equal Weight
downgrade
$290
AI Analysis
2026-01-07
Reason
Wells Fargo
Price Target
$290
AI Analysis
2026-01-07
downgrade
Overweight -> Equal Weight
Reason
Wells Fargo downgraded Humana to Equal Weight from Overweight with a $290 price target.
Wells Fargo
Stephen Baxter
Overweight -> Equal Weight
downgrade
$290
2026-01-07
Reason
Wells Fargo
Stephen Baxter
Price Target
$290
2026-01-07
downgrade
Overweight -> Equal Weight
Reason
As previously reported, Wells Fargo analyst Stephen Baxter downgraded Humana to Equal Weight from Overweight with a $290 price target. For managed care organizations, the firm is most constructive on Medicare Advantage with uncertainty high for Medicaid/Exchanges. Wells sees a more difficult backdrop for hospitals in 2026 as post-COVID tailwinds wane and legislative risks near. Distributor debate remains revisions vs. multiples. Regarding Humana, the firm is more cautious on achievability of the company's margin objective in 2026 given lack of benefit cuts.
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