Commvault Systems Inc's stock fell 30.23% and hit a 52-week low amid broader market gains, with the Nasdaq-100 up 0.59% and the S&P 500 up 0.30%.
The company reported a 19% year-over-year revenue growth to $314 million for Q3, alongside a significant increase in annual recurring revenue (ARR) which reached $1.085 billion, up 22% year-over-year. This strong performance reflects the company's robust customer engagement and adoption of its AI-enabled platform, solidifying its market position. Additionally, Commvault's optimistic outlook for Q4 and the full fiscal year 2026 indicates confidence in continued growth driven by improved macroeconomic conditions.
Despite the stock's decline, the strong earnings performance and revenue growth suggest that Commvault is well-positioned for future success, particularly as demand for data protection solutions continues to rise in the market.
Wall Street analysts forecast CVLT stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CVLT is 182.27 USD with a low forecast of 144.00 USD and a high forecast of 220.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
13 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast CVLT stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CVLT is 182.27 USD with a low forecast of 144.00 USD and a high forecast of 220.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
11 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 87.500
Low
144.00
Averages
182.27
High
220.00
Current: 87.500
Low
144.00
Averages
182.27
High
220.00
KeyBanc
Overweight
downgrade
$152 -> $108
2026-01-28
New
Reason
KeyBanc
Price Target
$152 -> $108
AI Analysis
2026-01-28
New
downgrade
Overweight
Reason
KeyBanc lowered the firm's price target on Commvault to $108 from $152 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares following a mixed Q3 as NNARR constant currency missed expectations due to a greater mix shift to SaaS and longer duration term deals. The firm views the mixed Q3 results more so the result of unpredictability on duration and mix shift, and what could have been clearer messaging and expectation setting, rather than a deterioration in demand or change in the competitive environment.
Stephens
Stephens
Overweight
maintain
$162 -> $135
2026-01-28
New
Reason
Stephens
Stephens
Price Target
$162 -> $135
2026-01-28
New
maintain
Overweight
Reason
Stephens lowered the firm's price target on Commvault to $135 from $162 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. While Commvault's net new ARR and SaaS NRR were below expectations, the firm views the 30% stock pullback as "an overreaction" relative to a 100 basis point reduction in the ARR growth outlook, the analyst tells investors. While the quarter appears to be fueling concerns about the durability of displacement-driven growth in data protection, the firm sees "no evidence of a material change in Commvault's fundamental growth outlook," the analyst added.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for CVLT
Unlock Now
Baird
Outperform -> NULL
downgrade
$205 -> $185
2026-01-28
New
Reason
Baird
Price Target
$205 -> $185
2026-01-28
New
downgrade
Outperform -> NULL
Reason
Baird lowered the firm's price target on Commvault to $185 from $205 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm updated its model following mixed Q3 results.
Cantor Fitzgerald
Neutral
downgrade
$144 -> $100
2026-01-28
New
Reason
Cantor Fitzgerald
Price Target
$144 -> $100
2026-01-28
New
downgrade
Neutral
Reason
Cantor Fitzgerald lowered the firm's price target on Commvault to $100 from $144 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Cantor continues to view Commvault as well-positioned to benefit from data-related secular drivers, including cyber and AI, but awaits consistent beat/raise opportunities before becoming more constructive on shares, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
About CVLT
Commvault Systems, Inc. is a provider of cyber resilience and data protection solutions. The Company’s cyber resilience platform combines data security and rapid recovery at enterprise scale across any workload. The Company provides these products and services for their data across many types of environments, including on-premises, hybrid and multi-cloud. Its offerings are delivered via self-managed software, software-as-a-service (SaaS), integrated appliances, or managed by partners. Its Commvault Cloud offerings are organized into three packages, such as Operational Recovery, Autonomous Recovery and Cyber Recovery. Its Operational Recovery provides backup, verifiable recovery, and cost-optimized cloud workload mobility, helping to ensure data availability and granular recovery, even across multiple clouds. In addition, it also provides customers with a range of offerings, including Cleanroom Recovery, HyperScale X, Air Gap Protect, Cloud Rewind, Clumio Backtrack and Compliance.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
