Archer-Daniels-Midland Co faces earnings estimate cut
Archer-Daniels-Midland Co's stock rose by 4.34% today, reaching a 20-day high. This movement occurs amid a broader market context where the Nasdaq-100 is down 0.74% and the S&P 500 is down 0.09%.
The increase in stock price comes despite a 4% cut in earnings estimates for Archer-Daniels-Midland Co, reflecting overall weakness in the agricultural commodities sector. This downward revision indicates potential profitability challenges that could affect investor confidence, yet the stock has managed to rise, suggesting sector rotation as investors seek opportunities in specific areas.
The implications of this price movement highlight the resilience of Archer-Daniels-Midland Co in a challenging market environment. Investors may be looking beyond the immediate earnings concerns, focusing instead on the company's long-term potential and the dynamics within the agricultural sector.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Analyst Views on ADM
About ADM
About the author

Market Performance: Consumer staples stocks have experienced a significant rally in 2026, indicating strong market performance in this sector.
Investment Opportunities: Despite the rally making it challenging to find undervalued stocks, there are still investment opportunities available for those willing to search.
- Cargo Volume Decline: The Port of Los Angeles processed approximately 812,000 TEUs in January, reflecting a 12% year-over-year decline, indicating that unfulfilled commitments from the U.S.-China trade deal have severely impacted agricultural exports and overall port performance.
- Soybean Export Struggles: Exports of soybeans from the Port to China plummeted by 80% last year, and despite President Trump's announcement of potential additional purchases of 8 million metric tons, no improvements have been observed, highlighting the diminishing competitiveness of U.S. agricultural products in global markets.
- Falling Freight Rates: The decrease in container volumes has led to an 11.5% drop in ocean freight rates over the past month, with rates in the mid-low market segment falling by over 18%, prompting carriers to implement aggressive capacity management strategies, which may result in canceled sailings and further supply chain disruptions.
- Southeast Asia Import Growth: While imports from China have declined, containerized imports from Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia increased by 17.8%, 36.5%, and 18% respectively, indicating a diversification trend in U.S. import sources that partially offsets the decrease in Chinese imports.
- Investor Patience: Investors focusing on reliable dividend payers have needed to be patient recently.
- Market Performance in 2026: In 2026, this patience is rewarded as companies like Caterpillar, Exxon Mobil, and Clorox achieve returns exceeding 25%.
- Director Buy Signal: Archer Daniels Midland's director David R. McAtee II made a significant stock purchase totaling $486.7K over the past six months at an average cost of $64.90/share, indicating his confidence in the company's future and suggesting the stock may be undervalued.
- Stock Performance: As of the latest trading session, ADM shares are priced at $68.32, reflecting a 1.2% increase from the previous day and nearing its 52-week high of $69.75, which indicates optimistic market sentiment regarding the company's prospects.
- Dividend Yield: The current annualized dividend for ADM stands at $2.08/share, paid quarterly, with the next ex-dividend date on February 17, 2026, resulting in an approximate yield of 3.1%, showcasing the company's commitment to returning value to shareholders.
- Long-term Dividend History: ADM's long-term dividend history chart provides investors with insights into the sustainability of its recent dividend payments, further bolstering investor confidence in the stock's reliability.
- Market Decline: The S&P 500 index fell by 0.84%, the Dow Jones by 0.34%, and the Nasdaq 100 by 1.55%, indicating a sharp sell-off after reaching record highs, which negatively impacted investor sentiment.
- Tech Sector Retreat: Data service and software stocks plummeted following the release of an automation tool by AI firm Anthropic, with Thomson Reuters and EPAM Systems down over 15% and 13% respectively, reflecting a loss of confidence in tech stocks.
- Precious Metals Rally: Gold prices surged over 6% and silver over 8%, leading to gains in mining stocks, with Hecla Mining and Freeport McMoRan rising more than 8% and 6% respectively, indicating increased demand for safe-haven assets.
- Economic Outlook Improvement: Richmond Fed President noted an improving US economic outlook despite ongoing risks, with markets focusing on upcoming economic data and the passage of a spending bill to gauge future economic trends.
- Financial Performance: ADM reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.87 for Q4 2025 and $3.43 for the full year, demonstrating robust performance with a total segment operating profit of $821 million, reflecting strong cash flow management amid market challenges.
- Cost-Saving Initiatives: The company executed over 20 projects as part of portfolio optimization, resulting in approximately $200 million in cost savings, while also restoring Decatur East operations and achieving the lowest injury rate in its history, highlighting a dual focus on safety and efficiency.
- Future Outlook: ADM's outlook for adjusted EPS in 2026 is projected between $3.60 and $4.25, indicating confidence in future growth despite ongoing market fluidity and policy uncertainties, emphasizing disciplined capital allocation strategies.
- Strategic Focus: The company is concentrating on five key areas including enhanced nutrition, biosolutions, precision fermentation, and decarbonization, introducing innovations like allergen-free pea protein, aiming to capture market opportunities and drive long-term growth through sustained investment.











