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ADM Should I Buy

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Intellectia

Should You Buy Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (ADM) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
68.370
1 Day change
1.98%
52 Week Range
74.190
Analysis Updated At
2026/04/16
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Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (ADM) is not a strong buy at the moment for a beginner investor with a long-term strategy. The stock has shown a moderate price increase recently, but technical indicators are neutral, insider selling is significantly high, and financial performance has declined YoY. While analysts have raised price targets, the ratings remain mixed, and there are no strong proprietary trading signals or influential buying activity to support an immediate buy decision.

Technical Analysis

The MACD histogram is negative (-0.612) and contracting, RSI is neutral at 39.285, and moving averages are converging. The stock is trading below the pivot level of 70.413, with key support at 67.634 and resistance at 73.192. These indicators suggest a neutral trend with no clear buy signal.

Options Data

Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

The low put-call ratios indicate bullish sentiment, but the overall volume is relatively low, and implied volatility is high (35.35) with an IV percentile of 83.6, suggesting elevated risk.

Technical Summary

StrongSellSellNeutralBuyStrongBuydotted line Image
Sell
6
Buy
4

Positive Catalysts

  • Biofuel policy developments could also support growth in Carbohydrate Nutrition.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

  • Insiders are selling heavily, with a 403.38% increase in selling activity over the last month. Financial performance in Q4 2025 showed significant declines in revenue (-13.68% YoY), net income (-19.58% YoY), and EPS (-20.34% YoY). Additionally, there are ongoing investigations into potential breaches of fiduciary duties, which could impact investor confidence.

Financial Performance

In Q4 2025, revenue dropped to $18.56 billion (-13.68% YoY), net income fell to $456 million (-19.58% YoY), and EPS decreased to 0.94 (-20.34% YoY). However, gross margin improved slightly to 6.54% (+3.48% YoY). Overall, the financial performance indicates a challenging environment.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Analyst ratings are mixed. Jefferies and Barclays raised price targets to $77, citing improved margins and biofuel policy support. However, JPMorgan maintains an Underweight rating, and BMO Capital remains cautious with a Market Perform rating. The consensus reflects uncertainty about the magnitude of future growth.

Wall Street analysts forecast ADM stock price to fall
5 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast ADM stock price to fall
0 Buy
2 Hold
3 Sell
Moderate Sell
Current: 67.040
sliders
Low
50
Averages
56.8
High
61
Current: 67.040
sliders
Low
50
Averages
56.8
High
61
Jefferies
Hold
maintain
$65 -> $77
AI Analysis
2026-04-06
Reason
Jefferies
Price Target
$65 -> $77
AI Analysis
2026-04-06
maintain
Hold
Reason
Jefferies raised the firm's price target on Archer Daniels to $77 from $65 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. The firm sees Q1 as the low watermark, with Q1 EPS of 70c and EBITDA of $859M in line with consensus. Higher crush and biofuel policy deferral margins should lift Agriculture Services and Oilseeds from Q2, while E15/45Z support Carbohydrate Nutrition seeing growth, but the magnitude is uncertain, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Barclays
Benjamin Theuer
Equal Weight
maintain
$68 -> $77
2026-04-01
Reason
Barclays
Benjamin Theuer
Price Target
$68 -> $77
2026-04-01
maintain
Equal Weight
Reason
Barclays analyst Benjamin Theuer raised the firm's price target on Archer Daniels to $77 from $68 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. With the Environmental Protection Agency finalizing the Set 2 Rule, Barclays expects marginal supply constraints at the refiner level tightening the oilseed balance, supporting crush margins, and shifting value upstream. Biofuels are no longer demand- but feedstock-constrained, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
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