US Supreme Court Rules IEEPA Tariffs Illegal, Impacting Billions in Refunds
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 20 2026
0mins
Should l Buy UPS?
Source: CNBC
- Refund Challenges: The US Supreme Court's ruling that Trump's IEEPA tariffs are illegal could lead to billions in refund requests, but trade attorneys warn that the refund process may be delayed due to court rulings and customs payment methods, creating double hurdles for importers.
- Surge in Tariff Revenue: The US government recorded $30 billion in tariff revenue in January 2026, bringing the year-to-date total to $124 billion, a staggering 304% increase year-over-year, indicating significant short-term fiscal impacts from high tariff policies, while potential refunds could exert long-term pressure on the Treasury.
- Customs Bond Issues: The rise in tariffs has escalated importers' customs bond requirements from a minimum of $50,000 to as high as $450 million, resulting in over 24,000 cases of bond insufficiencies valued at nearly $3.6 billion, highlighting the substantial cash flow impact of tariff policies on businesses.
- Complexity of Refund Process: Although tariffs are itemized, theoretically allowing for quick refunds, insurance companies require document verification, leading to expected delays of 30 to 60 days for refunds, particularly as small businesses have begun reaching out to insurers ahead of the Supreme Court decision to expedite the review process.
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Analyst Views on UPS
Wall Street analysts forecast UPS stock price to fall
19 Analyst Rating
9 Buy
9 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 107.110
Low
80.00
Averages
107.06
High
126.00
Current: 107.110
Low
80.00
Averages
107.06
High
126.00
About UPS
United Parcel Service, Inc. is a global package delivery and logistics provider. Its U.S. Domestic Package segment offers a full spectrum of air and ground package transportation services. Its air portfolio offers time-definite, same-day, next-day, two-day and three-day delivery alternatives as well as air cargo services. Its ground network enables customers to ship using its day-definite ground service. Ground Saver provides residential ground service for customers with non-urgent, lightweight residential shipments. Its International Package segment consists of small package operations in Europe, Middle East and Africa, Canada and Latin America and Asia. It offers a selection of guaranteed day and time-definite international transportation services supported by its brokerage capabilities that facilitate cross-border clearance for international shipments. Its supply chain solutions consist of customized third-party logistics and specialized cold chain transportation solutions.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Trump Extends Iran Ceasefire Deadline Amid Market Uncertainty
- Ceasefire Extension: President Trump has extended the Iran ceasefire deadline by two weeks, a move that may exacerbate uncertainty in the Middle East conflict as Tehran shows reluctance to engage in diplomatic efforts, potentially impacting global market sentiment.
- Tariff Policy Impact: Trump expressed hope that U.S. companies that have not sought refunds for his tariffs will adhere to a 'no take back' policy, despite the Supreme Court ruling the tariffs illegal; major firms like Apple and Amazon have yet to file for refunds, which could affect their future financial performance.
- Market Reaction: Following Trump's announcement of the ceasefire extension, U.S. stock index futures rose, despite a lower close on Tuesday, while crude oil prices increased, indicating market sensitivity to developments in the Middle East.
- Aviation Industry Outlook: United Airlines has slashed its 2026 earnings outlook due to supply chain issues stemming from the Middle East conflict, reflecting the direct impact of soaring fuel prices on the airline industry and potentially leading to broader industry adjustments.
See More
UBS Analysis: Impact of US-Iran Ceasefire on Stocks
- Ceasefire Impact Assessment: UBS analysts evaluated individual stocks' performance during the US-Iran ceasefire using three metrics, including exposure to Middle Eastern commodities, pricing power, and sensitivity to past supply shocks, providing investors with clear investment directions.
- Southwest Airlines Outlook: The stock of Southwest Airlines fell over 25% during the war, but UBS believes it will benefit if hostilities cease; prior to the conflict, analysts upgraded the stock to buy, anticipating that new initiatives would enhance profitability.
- Procter & Gamble Potential Winner: As of Monday, Procter & Gamble's stock was 14% below its pre-war level, despite gaining 17% in the first two months of the year, and UBS sees potential for recovery and increased market confidence if peace is achieved.
- UPS Growth Opportunities: UPS's stock rose 17% in the two months before the war but fell 18% during hostilities; UBS analysts noted that avoiding further conflict could benefit UPS due to its undervalued stock and potential earnings growth.
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- Convenient Return Options: With 79% of the U.S. population now living within five miles of a Return Bar and over a quarter within one mile, the return process is easier to integrate into daily errands, improving customer experience and satisfaction.
- Instant Refund Mechanism: Shoppers can bring unpackaged items to participating locations, where associates scan a barcode to verify returns and trigger instant refunds, eliminating the need for boxes and printers, thus streamlining the return process.
- Strategic Partnership Advantages: Happy Returns collaborates with brands like Everlane and SHEIN, focusing on box-free, label-free return solutions that enhance return efficiency and sustainability, further solidifying UPS's market leadership in reverse logistics.
See More
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- Network Expansion: The partnership between UPS and Happy Returns adds 1,700 new Return Bar® locations, bringing the total to 10,000, significantly enhancing consumer return convenience and expected to drive further growth in online shopping.
- Increased Coverage: The new locations allow 79% of the U.S. population to find a Return Bar® within five miles, up from 76%, indicating significant progress in simplifying the return process and enhancing customer satisfaction.
- Rapid Processing: With AI-powered Return Vision™ technology, return processing time is reduced to 3.6 days, with an average return transit time of seven days, enabling retailers to better manage the increasing volume of returns.
- Market Leadership: Happy Returns' return network is now the largest consolidated return network in the U.S., three times the size of the next competitor, further solidifying its leadership position in the reverse logistics market and enhancing brand competitiveness.
See More
UPS Subsidiary Happy Returns Expands to 10,000 Drop-off Locations
- Network Expansion: Happy Returns announced the addition of 1,700 drop-off locations, bringing its total to 10,000, which now serves 79% of the U.S. population, significantly enhancing consumer return convenience and improving economic outcomes for retailers.
- Return Efficiency Improvement: Leveraging UPS's logistics network, consumer return packages reach retailers in an average of 7 days, with some deliveries completed in as little as 3.6 days, helping retailers accelerate inventory turnover and boost sales efficiency.
- Fraud Prevention Technology: Happy Returns has implemented an AI risk scoring system that identifies potential fraudulent activities at the return request stage, reducing losses for retailers and enhancing the security and reliability of the return process.
- Market Competitive Advantage: By offering boxless and label-free return services, Happy Returns not only improves customer experience but also solidifies its leadership position in the returns consolidation market through partnerships with major retailers.
See More
UPS and Happy Returns Expand Return Bar Network to 10,000 Locations
- Network Expansion: UPS and Happy Returns are expanding their return network by adding over 1,700 locations, bringing the total to 10,000 nationwide, significantly enhancing return convenience for consumers and improving the retail customer experience.
- Fast Return Process: Returns now move from shopper drop-off to retailers in an average of 3.6 days, with an overall return transit time of seven days, helping retailers accelerate the return cycle and build customer loyalty.
- Market Leadership: Happy Returns' network is now more than three times the size of the next-largest alternative in the U.S., reinforcing its leadership position in the consolidated return network and boosting retailer confidence and efficiency.
- Seamless Return Experience: The new network allows 79% of the U.S. population to find a return location within five miles, further simplifying the return process for consumers and promoting box-free, label-free returns, enhancing convenience for online shoppers.
See More
Trump Extends Iran Ceasefire Deadline Amid Market Uncertainty
- Ceasefire Extension: President Trump has extended the Iran ceasefire deadline by two weeks, a move that may exacerbate uncertainty in the Middle East conflict as Tehran shows reluctance to engage in diplomatic efforts, potentially impacting global market sentiment.
- Tariff Policy Impact: Trump expressed hope that U.S. companies that have not sought refunds for his tariffs will adhere to a 'no take back' policy, despite the Supreme Court ruling the tariffs illegal; major firms like Apple and Amazon have yet to file for refunds, which could affect their future financial performance.
- Market Reaction: Following Trump's announcement of the ceasefire extension, U.S. stock index futures rose, despite a lower close on Tuesday, while crude oil prices increased, indicating market sensitivity to developments in the Middle East.
- Aviation Industry Outlook: United Airlines has slashed its 2026 earnings outlook due to supply chain issues stemming from the Middle East conflict, reflecting the direct impact of soaring fuel prices on the airline industry and potentially leading to broader industry adjustments.
See More
UBS Analysis: Impact of US-Iran Ceasefire on Stocks
- Ceasefire Impact Assessment: UBS analysts evaluated individual stocks' performance during the US-Iran ceasefire using three metrics, including exposure to Middle Eastern commodities, pricing power, and sensitivity to past supply shocks, providing investors with clear investment directions.
- Southwest Airlines Outlook: The stock of Southwest Airlines fell over 25% during the war, but UBS believes it will benefit if hostilities cease; prior to the conflict, analysts upgraded the stock to buy, anticipating that new initiatives would enhance profitability.
- Procter & Gamble Potential Winner: As of Monday, Procter & Gamble's stock was 14% below its pre-war level, despite gaining 17% in the first two months of the year, and UBS sees potential for recovery and increased market confidence if peace is achieved.
- UPS Growth Opportunities: UPS's stock rose 17% in the two months before the war but fell 18% during hostilities; UBS analysts noted that avoiding further conflict could benefit UPS due to its undervalued stock and potential earnings growth.
See More
UPS and Happy Returns Expand Return Bar Network to 10K Locations
- Network Expansion Milestone: UPS and Happy Returns have expanded their return network to 10,000 U.S. locations, adding over 1,700 new sites, which solidifies their position as the largest consolidated return network in the country, significantly enhancing return convenience for online shoppers.
- Convenient Return Options: With 79% of the U.S. population now living within five miles of a Return Bar and over a quarter within one mile, the return process is easier to integrate into daily errands, improving customer experience and satisfaction.
- Instant Refund Mechanism: Shoppers can bring unpackaged items to participating locations, where associates scan a barcode to verify returns and trigger instant refunds, eliminating the need for boxes and printers, thus streamlining the return process.
- Strategic Partnership Advantages: Happy Returns collaborates with brands like Everlane and SHEIN, focusing on box-free, label-free return solutions that enhance return efficiency and sustainability, further solidifying UPS's market leadership in reverse logistics.
See More
UPS and Happy Returns Expand Return Bar Network to 10,000 Locations
- Network Expansion: The partnership between UPS and Happy Returns adds 1,700 new Return Bar® locations, bringing the total to 10,000, significantly enhancing consumer return convenience and expected to drive further growth in online shopping.
- Increased Coverage: The new locations allow 79% of the U.S. population to find a Return Bar® within five miles, up from 76%, indicating significant progress in simplifying the return process and enhancing customer satisfaction.
- Rapid Processing: With AI-powered Return Vision™ technology, return processing time is reduced to 3.6 days, with an average return transit time of seven days, enabling retailers to better manage the increasing volume of returns.
- Market Leadership: Happy Returns' return network is now the largest consolidated return network in the U.S., three times the size of the next competitor, further solidifying its leadership position in the reverse logistics market and enhancing brand competitiveness.
See More
UPS Subsidiary Happy Returns Expands to 10,000 Drop-off Locations
- Network Expansion: Happy Returns announced the addition of 1,700 drop-off locations, bringing its total to 10,000, which now serves 79% of the U.S. population, significantly enhancing consumer return convenience and improving economic outcomes for retailers.
- Return Efficiency Improvement: Leveraging UPS's logistics network, consumer return packages reach retailers in an average of 7 days, with some deliveries completed in as little as 3.6 days, helping retailers accelerate inventory turnover and boost sales efficiency.
- Fraud Prevention Technology: Happy Returns has implemented an AI risk scoring system that identifies potential fraudulent activities at the return request stage, reducing losses for retailers and enhancing the security and reliability of the return process.
- Market Competitive Advantage: By offering boxless and label-free return services, Happy Returns not only improves customer experience but also solidifies its leadership position in the returns consolidation market through partnerships with major retailers.
See More
UPS and Happy Returns Expand Return Bar Network to 10,000 Locations
- Network Expansion: UPS and Happy Returns are expanding their return network by adding over 1,700 locations, bringing the total to 10,000 nationwide, significantly enhancing return convenience for consumers and improving the retail customer experience.
- Fast Return Process: Returns now move from shopper drop-off to retailers in an average of 3.6 days, with an overall return transit time of seven days, helping retailers accelerate the return cycle and build customer loyalty.
- Market Leadership: Happy Returns' network is now more than three times the size of the next-largest alternative in the U.S., reinforcing its leadership position in the consolidated return network and boosting retailer confidence and efficiency.
- Seamless Return Experience: The new network allows 79% of the U.S. population to find a return location within five miles, further simplifying the return process for consumers and promoting box-free, label-free returns, enhancing convenience for online shoppers.
See More
