US Supreme Court Rules IEEPA Tariffs Illegal, Impacting Billions in Refunds
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 20 2026
0mins
Should l Buy UPS?
Source: CNBC
- Refund Challenges: The US Supreme Court's ruling that Trump's IEEPA tariffs are illegal could lead to billions in refund requests, but trade attorneys warn that the refund process may be delayed due to court rulings and customs payment methods, creating double hurdles for importers.
- Surge in Tariff Revenue: The US government recorded $30 billion in tariff revenue in January 2026, bringing the year-to-date total to $124 billion, a staggering 304% increase year-over-year, indicating significant short-term fiscal impacts from high tariff policies, while potential refunds could exert long-term pressure on the Treasury.
- Customs Bond Issues: The rise in tariffs has escalated importers' customs bond requirements from a minimum of $50,000 to as high as $450 million, resulting in over 24,000 cases of bond insufficiencies valued at nearly $3.6 billion, highlighting the substantial cash flow impact of tariff policies on businesses.
- Complexity of Refund Process: Although tariffs are itemized, theoretically allowing for quick refunds, insurance companies require document verification, leading to expected delays of 30 to 60 days for refunds, particularly as small businesses have begun reaching out to insurers ahead of the Supreme Court decision to expedite the review process.
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Analyst Views on UPS
Wall Street analysts forecast UPS stock price to rise
19 Analyst Rating
9 Buy
9 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 94.800
Low
80.00
Averages
107.06
High
126.00
Current: 94.800
Low
80.00
Averages
107.06
High
126.00
About UPS
United Parcel Service, Inc. provides a range of integrated logistics solutions for customers in more than 200 countries and territories. Its U.S. Domestic Package segment offers a range of United States domestic air and ground package transportation services. Its air portfolio offers time-definite, same-day, next-day, two-day and three-day delivery alternatives as well as air cargo services. Its ground network enables customers to ship using its day-definite ground service. UPS SurePost provides residential ground service for customers with non-urgent, lightweight residential shipments. Its International Package segment consists of small package operations in Europe, Indian sub-continent, Middle East and Africa, Canada and Latin America and Asia. It offers a selection of guaranteed day- and time-definite international shipping services. Its supply chain solutions consist of forwarding, logistics, customized third-party logistics and specialized cold chain transportation solutions.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Technological Integration Advantage: By combining MSI's advanced engineering, diagnostics, and analytical expertise with UPS's field services and maintenance capabilities, UPS is positioned to deliver a more comprehensive end-to-end solution, bridging the traditional gap between engineering analysis and operational execution.
- Industry Experience Accumulation: With over 30 years of experience in rotating machinery, MSI specializes in testing and analyzing complex vibration, dynamics, and performance issues, serving various industrial sectors including petroleum refining, electric power generation, chemical processing, and water utilities, thereby enhancing UPS's technical prowess.
- Strategic Investment Support: New State Capital Partners' investment in UPS aims to drive growth through acquisitions, and the addition of MSI provides UPS with key technical capabilities that enhance its market differentiation, supporting the company's success in the next phase of growth.
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- Investor Focus Misalignment: Investors are overly focused on near-term weakness while neglecting UPS's long-term earnings power, indicating a lack of awareness of its future growth potential, which could result in missed investment opportunities.
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- Military Deployment Escalation: The Pentagon is reportedly preparing for weeks of ground operations in Iran, with thousands of American soldiers and Marines arriving in the Middle East, raising concerns about an escalation in the Iran conflict that could disrupt global supply chains and increase prices.
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See More
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- Technological Integration Advantage: By combining MSI's advanced engineering, diagnostics, and analytical expertise with UPS's field services and maintenance capabilities, UPS is positioned to deliver a more comprehensive end-to-end solution, bridging the traditional gap between engineering analysis and operational execution.
- Industry Experience Accumulation: With over 30 years of experience in rotating machinery, MSI specializes in testing and analyzing complex vibration, dynamics, and performance issues, serving various industrial sectors including petroleum refining, electric power generation, chemical processing, and water utilities, thereby enhancing UPS's technical prowess.
- Strategic Investment Support: New State Capital Partners' investment in UPS aims to drive growth through acquisitions, and the addition of MSI provides UPS with key technical capabilities that enhance its market differentiation, supporting the company's success in the next phase of growth.
See More
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- UPS Positive Outlook: United Parcel Service (UPS) added 0.63% in premarket trade after receiving a favorable profile in Barron’s, which sees upside potential for the package delivery company, projecting roughly 30% gains over the next 12 months if operational performance continues to improve.
- Sysco Acquisition Deal: Sysco (SYY) dropped 6.36% in premarket trading after announcing a $29.1 billion acquisition of Jetro Restaurant Depot, which includes $21.6 billion in cash and 91.5 million Sysco shares, reflecting a high acquisition multiple of approximately 14.6 times Jetro's operating income, indicating potential financial strain.
See More
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- Market Potential Assessment: According to Barron's analysis, UPS is executing well in operations, and the market's underestimation of its recovery potential could lead to a 30% gain for shareholders over the next 12 months.
- Improving Earnings Outlook: UPS demonstrates management capability in a challenging environment, with current valuations not fully reflecting its improving earnings outlook, suggesting significant enhancement in profitability if operational performance continues to improve.
- Investor Focus Misalignment: Investors are overly focused on near-term weakness while neglecting UPS's long-term earnings power, indicating a lack of awareness of its future growth potential, which could result in missed investment opportunities.
- High-Quality Logistics Leader: UPS is viewed as a high-quality, attractively valued logistics leader, and despite facing challenges in growth and profitability momentum, its strong income quality and investment metrics continue to support its long-term investment value.
See More
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- Enterprise Products Partners Advantage: Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) ranks among the top midstream energy companies in North America, having increased its distribution for 27 consecutive years, with a current forward distribution yield of approximately 5.6%, demonstrating its resilience in inflationary environments and stable cash flow.
- Evergy's Growth Potential: Evergy serves 1.7 million customers and expects its adjusted earnings per share to grow by over 8% annually by 2028, primarily driven by AI-related demand, while offering a strong dividend yield of 3.4%, indicating robust shareholder returns.
- UPS's Profitability Transformation: As a global logistics leader, UPS delivers an average of 20.8 million packages daily, and despite facing challenges, it anticipates 2026 to be an
See More
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- Enterprise Products Partners: Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) ranks as one of North America's strongest midstream energy companies, having increased its distribution for 27 consecutive years, with a current yield of approximately 5.6%, providing stable cash flow and growth potential, particularly amid rising U.S. LNG exports and domestic natural gas demand.
- Evergy's Stability: Evergy serves 1.7 million customers with no competition, sourcing about 50% of its power from clean energy, and expects adjusted earnings per share to grow over 8% annually starting in 2028, driven by AI-related demand, while maintaining an attractive 3.4% dividend yield.
- UPS's Transformation Potential: United Parcel Service (UPS), a global logistics leader delivering an average of 20.8 million packages daily, faces recent stock price pressures due to conflicts but anticipates 2026 as a pivotal year for restructuring to enhance profitability through higher-margin shipments, promising substantial returns for investors over the next decade.
- Economic Uncertainty Impact: As inflation and economic uncertainty rise, investors are rotating out of expensive growth stocks into companies with durable moats, which is likely to favor stocks with stable cash flows and strong dividend records, reflecting a significant shift in investment strategy.
See More
Trump's Intent to Seize Iran's Oil Market Raises Concerns
- Cautious Market Reaction: Trump's declaration of wanting to 'take Iran's oil' while suggesting a 'peace deal could be made fairly quickly' has left markets feeling uneasy, leading investors to adopt a risk-averse stance as Asia-Pacific markets fell sharply on Monday.
- Military Deployment Escalation: The Pentagon is reportedly preparing for weeks of ground operations in Iran, with thousands of American soldiers and Marines arriving in the Middle East, raising concerns about an escalation in the Iran conflict that could disrupt global supply chains and increase prices.
- Rising Oil Price Pressure: Oil prices are climbing again as the conflict intensifies, particularly after Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis fired missiles at Israel, heightening fears over energy supply disruptions that could impact the global economy.
- Shipping Route Risks: The Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route, is being impeded by the ongoing war, with industry leaders warning that if it does not reopen by mid-April, supply disruptions could worsen significantly, affecting operations across various sectors.
See More
