U.S. Independent Refiners Expected to Report Strong Q1 Results
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Apr 27 2026
0mins
Source: Newsfilter
- Profit Growth Expectations: U.S. independent refiners are anticipated to report significantly stronger first-quarter results compared to last year, driven by supply disruptions from the Middle East conflict that have sharply increased diesel and jet fuel margins, enhancing overall profitability.
- Diesel Margin Surge: The ultra-low sulfur diesel futures crack spread soared 105% to a record high of $86.25 per barrel on March 20, indicating the strong market position of refiners amid global supply constraints.
- Gasoline Price Increase: Although gasoline margins were capped, the U.S. gasoline futures crack spread rose to $37.62 per barrel on March 27, the highest level in over two years, pushing the average U.S. pump price above $4 per gallon for the first time in over three years, marking the sharpest monthly rise in decades.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: Analysts expect that as fuel margins begin to more clearly feed into earnings over the coming months, U.S. refiners will continue to benefit from a favorable margin environment in the next few quarters, with the market likely focusing more on full-year earnings.
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Analyst Views on VLO
Wall Street analysts forecast VLO stock price to fall
17 Analyst Rating
11 Buy
6 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 236.350
Low
149.00
Averages
186.56
High
223.00
Current: 236.350
Low
149.00
Averages
186.56
High
223.00
About VLO
Valero Energy Corporation, through its subsidiaries, is a multinational manufacturer and marketer of petroleum-based and low-carbon liquid transportation fuels and petrochemical products. The Company sells its products primarily in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Ireland and Latin America. Its segments include Refining, Renewable Diesel, and Ethanol. The Refining segment includes the operations of its petroleum refineries, the associated activities to market its refined petroleum products, and the logistics assets that support its refining operations. The Renewable Diesel segment represents the operations of Diamond Green Diesel (DGD), and the associated activities to market renewable diesel, renewable naphtha, and neat SAF. The Ethanol segment includes the operations of its ethanol plants and the associated activities to market its ethanol and co-products. It owns 15 petroleum refineries located in the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Stable Labor Market: Initial US unemployment claims rose by 10,000 to 200,000, below expectations of 205,000, indicating labor market resilience, while continuing claims unexpectedly fell to a 2.25-year low of 1.766 million.
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- Employment Data Impact: The April ADP employment report indicated that US companies added 109,000 jobs, below the expected 120,000, yet the market remains optimistic about the Fed's monetary policy, believing it will help maintain a low interest rate environment.
- International Market Surge: Overseas stock markets closed sharply higher, with the Euro Stoxx 50 rising 2.68% and China's Shanghai Composite gaining 1.17%, indicating a positive global market response to the US economic recovery, further boosting investor confidence.
See More
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- Supply Chain Disruption: The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran has led to a 30% drop in global jet fuel exports in April, down to 1.3 million barrels per day, directly impacting air travel in Europe and Asia and potentially causing significant disruptions this summer.
- Price Surge: As of May 1, jet fuel prices in Europe have doubled to $187 per barrel, forcing Lufthansa to cut 20,000 short-haul flights, highlighting the immense pressure fuel costs are placing on the airline industry.
- Alternative Supply Efforts: The EU is actively seeking jet fuel supplies from the U.S., with exports to Europe surging over 400% to 94,000 bpd in April, demonstrating a proactive response from U.S. refiners like Valero and Marathon Petroleum to global demand.
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