UBS Analysis: Impact of US-Iran Ceasefire on Stocks
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1 day ago
0mins
Should l Buy LUV?
Source: CNBC
- Ceasefire Impact Assessment: UBS analysts evaluated individual stocks' performance during the US-Iran ceasefire using three metrics, including exposure to Middle Eastern commodities, pricing power, and sensitivity to past supply shocks, providing investors with clear investment directions.
- Southwest Airlines Outlook: The stock of Southwest Airlines fell over 25% during the war, but UBS believes it will benefit if hostilities cease; prior to the conflict, analysts upgraded the stock to buy, anticipating that new initiatives would enhance profitability.
- Procter & Gamble Potential Winner: As of Monday, Procter & Gamble's stock was 14% below its pre-war level, despite gaining 17% in the first two months of the year, and UBS sees potential for recovery and increased market confidence if peace is achieved.
- UPS Growth Opportunities: UPS's stock rose 17% in the two months before the war but fell 18% during hostilities; UBS analysts noted that avoiding further conflict could benefit UPS due to its undervalued stock and potential earnings growth.
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Analyst Views on LUV
Wall Street analysts forecast LUV stock price to rise
14 Analyst Rating
4 Buy
9 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 39.350
Low
34.00
Averages
44.21
High
60.00
Current: 39.350
Low
34.00
Averages
44.21
High
60.00
About LUV
Southwest Airlines Co. (Southwest) operates Southwest Airlines, a passenger airline that provides scheduled air transportation in the United States and near-international markets. The Company's fare products include four categories: Wanna Get Away, Wanna Get Away Plus, Anytime, and Business Select to provide customers options when choosing a fare. It also offers ancillary services, such as EarlyBird Check-In, Upgraded Boarding, and transportation of pets and unaccompanied minors, in accordance with Southwest’s respective policies. Its Rapid Rewards loyalty program enables program members to earn points for every dollar spent on Southwest base fares, also including purchases paid with LUV Vouchers, gift cards, or flight credit, with no portion of the purchase price paid with Rapid Rewards points. It operates over 803 Boeing 737 aircraft in its fleet and serves 117 destinations in 42 states, the District of Columbia, the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, and ten near-international countries.
About the author

Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
- Record Revenue: Southwest Airlines reported a record passenger revenue of $6.6 billion for Q1, reflecting a 13.4% year-over-year increase, while operating revenue rose 12.8% to $7.2 billion, driven by strong demand for new product offerings and upgrades despite high fuel costs and macroeconomic uncertainty.
- Profitability Improvement: The airline achieved a net profit of $227 million, or $0.45 per share, a significant turnaround from a loss of $0.26 per share in the same quarter last year, although it fell short of expectations by 2 cents, indicating effective cost control and operational efficiency.
- Margin Expansion: Thanks to a broad set of commercial and cost initiatives, Southwest's operating margin expanded meaningfully by 810 basis points to 4.6%, demonstrating substantial progress in enhancing profitability.
- Cautious Outlook: Despite strong Q1 results, Southwest Airlines issued a cautious outlook for future earnings, projecting adjusted profits between $0.35 and $0.65 per share for Q2, below the market estimate of $0.62, reflecting concerns over fuel costs and revenue performance.
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- Record Passenger Numbers: U.S. airlines reported their highest-ever passenger counts in Q1, yet rising fuel costs have severely impacted profits, with United Airlines (UAL) cutting its full-year profit forecast by about a third, highlighting the industry's struggle between strong demand and soaring costs.
- Surging Fuel Costs: Jet fuel prices have nearly doubled since the U.S. and Israel's attacks on Iran in late February, making it difficult for airlines to raise fares quickly enough to cover costs; Southwest Airlines (LUV) expects second-quarter fuel prices to reach $4.10 to $4.15 per gallon, significantly up from $2.73 in Q1.
- Flight Reductions: Airlines are cutting flights despite full planes, with United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby stating that some routes no longer make sense in a high fuel price environment, leading to a planned 5% reduction in flights, while Delta Air Lines (DAL) is cutting capacity by over 3.5 percentage points.
- Fare Increases Insufficient: Although Delta's revenue rose nearly 10% in Q1 and fares increased by about 12% in early March, many passengers had booked before fuel prices surged, limiting airlines' ability to recover costs quickly; Alaska Airlines (ALK) noted it would have been profitable this quarter but for fuel costs.
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- Tesla's Mixed Results: Tesla's Q1 adjusted earnings were 41 cents per share, surpassing the 37 cents expected by analysts, but its revenue of $22.39 billion fell short of the $22.64 billion consensus, reflecting cautious market sentiment regarding sales growth.
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- Earnings Performance: Southwest Airlines reported a Q1 GAAP EPS of $0.45, missing expectations by $0.02, indicating pressure on profitability that could affect investor confidence.
- Revenue Growth: Despite a 12.8% year-over-year revenue increase to $7.25 billion, the figure fell short of expectations by $30 million, suggesting that market demand did not fully meet forecasts, potentially impacting future business strategies.
- Future Outlook: The company forecasts adjusted EPS for Q2 2026 between $0.35 and $0.65, below the consensus estimate of $0.62, reflecting uncertainty regarding future profitability.
- Operational Metrics: ASMs are expected to remain flat to up 1.0% year-over-year, while RASM is projected to grow between 16.5% and 18.5%, indicating the company's efforts in cost control amidst fluctuating market conditions.
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