Small Biotech Terns Targets Novartis' Leading Leukemia Drug
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Dec 09 2025
0mins
Should l Buy NVS?
Source: Benzinga
CARDINAL Trial Update: Terns Pharmaceuticals presented updated data from the CARDINAL trial of TERN-701 for chronic myeloid leukemia (CML), showing a 74% major molecular response (MMR) rate among 38 efficacy-evaluable patients at 24 weeks, with a deep molecular response (DMR) rate of 29%.
Safety Profile: The trial reported an encouraging safety profile, with 87% of patients remaining on treatment and no dose-limiting toxicities observed, supporting the selection of 320mg and 500mg as recommended doses for phase 2 expansion.
Market Impact: Analysts believe TERN-701 could disrupt the CML treatment landscape, challenging the current market leader, Scemblix, with a reported MMR achievement rate of 64%, significantly higher than that of competing therapies.
Stock Performance: Following the trial updates, Terns Pharmaceuticals' stock experienced a decline of 4.25% in premarket trading, reflecting market reactions to the data presented.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Stop guessing "Should I Buy NVS?" and start using high-conviction signals backed by rigorous historical data.
Sign up today to access powerful investing tools and make smarter, data-driven decisions.
Analyst Views on NVS
Wall Street analysts forecast NVS stock price to fall
6 Analyst Rating
1 Buy
4 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 161.180
Low
112.00
Averages
127.75
High
143.00
Current: 161.180
Low
112.00
Averages
127.75
High
143.00
About NVS
Novartis AG is a Switzerland-based pharmaceutical company. The Company develops, manufactures, and markets branded and generic prescription drugs, active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs), biosimilars and ophthalmic products. The Company uses science and digital technologies for treatments in the disease areas of immunology, dermatology, cancer, ophthalmology, neuroscience, respiratory, cardiovascular, renal and metabolism. The business activities of the Company are divided into two segments: Innovative Medicines, which includes innovative patent-protected prescription medicines for blood pressure, cancer and other ailments, and Sandoz, which includes generic pharmaceuticals and biosimilars.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Goldman Sachs Updates 10-Year Global Equity Forecast
- Optimistic European Outlook: Goldman Sachs projects a 7.5% annual return for European stocks over the next decade, driven by strong earnings growth and a dividend yield of about 3%, which is likely to attract more investor interest in the European market.
- Emerging Market Potential: Emerging market stocks are expected to return 12.8% annually, primarily supported by robust earnings growth in China and India, highlighting the significance and appeal of these markets in the global economy.
- Vanguard ETF Advantages: The Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF boasts an expense ratio of just 0.06%, significantly lower than the average 0.81% for similar funds, providing investors with a cost-effective avenue for European stock exposure, thereby enhancing its market competitiveness.
- US vs. European Stocks: While US stocks outperformed European stocks over the past decade, Goldman believes that due to high valuations in the US market, European stocks may surpass them in the next decade, prompting investors to reassess their asset allocation strategies.
See More
Health Care Stocks Rise as NYSE Index Gains 1.1%
- Strong Performance in Health Care: Health care stocks rose on Friday afternoon, with the NYSE Health Care Index gaining 1.1%, reflecting increased investor confidence in the sector, likely driven by an overall improvement in market sentiment.
- Market Sentiment Recovery: The rise in health care stocks may be correlated with a broader market recovery trend, as investors reassess the investment value of the health care sector after recent volatility, indicating optimism about future growth potential.
- Increased Investor Attention: With ongoing innovations and policy support in the health care industry, investor attention towards health care stocks has significantly increased, potentially attracting more capital into the sector and driving stock prices higher.
- Optimistic Industry Outlook: The growth potential and stability of the health care sector make it attractive amid economic uncertainties, leading investors to view it as a safe haven, further propelling the upward trend in health care stocks.
See More
Novartis Vanrafia Study Results Support Slowing Kidney Function Decline
- Study Overview: Novartis's ALIGN study indicates that Vanrafia (atrasentan) slows the decline of kidney function in IgA nephropathy patients, with a clinically meaningful eGFR change of 2.39 ml/min/1.73m² compared to placebo, highlighting its potential in chronic kidney disease management.
- Accelerated Approval Context: Vanrafia received accelerated approval in April 2025 in the U.S. and China for reducing proteinuria in IgAN patients, with Novartis planning to submit for traditional approval in 2026 to further validate its clinical benefits.
- Long-Term Follow-Up Advantage: The ALIGN study provides the longest follow-up period in pivotal Phase 3 studies for IgAN, ensuring a thorough assessment of Vanrafia's long-term effects, with safety consistent with previous findings, bolstering confidence in its market prospects.
- Market Reaction: Novartis shares rose 0.42% to $161.86 in premarket trading on Friday, nearing its 52-week high of $162.31, reflecting positive market expectations regarding the potential success of the drug.
See More
Novartis' Vanrafia Trial Results Show Significant Kidney Function Improvement
- Clinical Trial Results: Novartis' Vanrafia demonstrated significant kidney function improvement in the phase 3 trial for IgA nephropathy, with a 2.59 mL/min/1.73 m² increase in eGFR compared to placebo at the end of treatment, indicating its potential as a foundational therapy.
- Accelerated Approval Context: Vanrafia received accelerated approval from the FDA last April for proteinuria reduction in IgA nephropathy patients and has recently been granted similar approval in China, highlighting its global market potential.
- Market Performance: Novartis reported a core net income of $17.41 billion for full-year 2025, with earnings per share of $8.98, reflecting an increase from $15.76 billion and $7.81 per share in 2024, showcasing strong performance in drug development and sales.
- Future Plans: Novartis intends to seek traditional approval for Vanrafia this year, further solidifying its market position in kidney disease treatment and laying the groundwork for future revenue growth.
See More
Global Equities Rebound, International ETFs Gain Attention
- International Market Recovery: In 2025, the global market index surged approximately 32%, nearly double the U.S. market benchmark's 17% return, indicating a potential portfolio rotation that has caught investors' attention.
- Strong ETF Performance: The SPDR Portfolio Developed World ex-US ETF climbed over 30% in the past year, holding more than 2,300 developed-market stocks, positioning it prominently within the international recovery narrative while maintaining low fees.
- Currency Dynamics Impact: The weakening U.S. dollar boosted returns for overseas assets, particularly in Europe, where Spain's IBEX 35 index jumped around 50% and Germany's DAX rose about 23%, reflecting the positive effects of fiscal stimulus and a rebound in financial stocks.
- Potential Long-Term Trend: While American tech giants remain dominant, analysts suggest that international equities still trade at a valuation discount, and higher dividend yields abroad strengthen the case for diversification, indicating that the resurgence of international ETFs may represent a durable trend.
See More
Super Bowl LX: Seahawks Defeat Patriots 29-13
- Game Outcome: On February 8, 2026, Super Bowl LX saw the Seattle Seahawks defeat the New England Patriots 29-13, with 30 of the 42 total points scored in the fourth quarter, highlighting the game's intensity and enhancing the Seahawks' brand image.
- Ad Performance: According to USA Today's Ad Meter, brands like Anheuser-Busch, Lay's, and Dunkin' resonated well with viewers again this year, indicating effective emotional and comedic messaging strategies that continue to engage audiences.
- Viewer Feedback: Some ads featuring AI tools failed to win over viewers, reflecting a limited acceptance of technology-driven advertising among consumers, suggesting that companies need to reassess their advertising strategies to improve effectiveness.
- Market Impact: The Super Bowl remains a crucial platform for brand marketing, where successful ads can significantly boost brand visibility and directly influence sales performance, prompting companies to increase their advertising budgets in future campaigns.
See More
Goldman Sachs Updates 10-Year Global Equity Forecast
- Optimistic European Outlook: Goldman Sachs projects a 7.5% annual return for European stocks over the next decade, driven by strong earnings growth and a dividend yield of about 3%, which is likely to attract more investor interest in the European market.
- Emerging Market Potential: Emerging market stocks are expected to return 12.8% annually, primarily supported by robust earnings growth in China and India, highlighting the significance and appeal of these markets in the global economy.
- Vanguard ETF Advantages: The Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF boasts an expense ratio of just 0.06%, significantly lower than the average 0.81% for similar funds, providing investors with a cost-effective avenue for European stock exposure, thereby enhancing its market competitiveness.
- US vs. European Stocks: While US stocks outperformed European stocks over the past decade, Goldman believes that due to high valuations in the US market, European stocks may surpass them in the next decade, prompting investors to reassess their asset allocation strategies.
See More
Health Care Stocks Rise as NYSE Index Gains 1.1%
- Strong Performance in Health Care: Health care stocks rose on Friday afternoon, with the NYSE Health Care Index gaining 1.1%, reflecting increased investor confidence in the sector, likely driven by an overall improvement in market sentiment.
- Market Sentiment Recovery: The rise in health care stocks may be correlated with a broader market recovery trend, as investors reassess the investment value of the health care sector after recent volatility, indicating optimism about future growth potential.
- Increased Investor Attention: With ongoing innovations and policy support in the health care industry, investor attention towards health care stocks has significantly increased, potentially attracting more capital into the sector and driving stock prices higher.
- Optimistic Industry Outlook: The growth potential and stability of the health care sector make it attractive amid economic uncertainties, leading investors to view it as a safe haven, further propelling the upward trend in health care stocks.
See More
Novartis Vanrafia Study Results Support Slowing Kidney Function Decline
- Study Overview: Novartis's ALIGN study indicates that Vanrafia (atrasentan) slows the decline of kidney function in IgA nephropathy patients, with a clinically meaningful eGFR change of 2.39 ml/min/1.73m² compared to placebo, highlighting its potential in chronic kidney disease management.
- Accelerated Approval Context: Vanrafia received accelerated approval in April 2025 in the U.S. and China for reducing proteinuria in IgAN patients, with Novartis planning to submit for traditional approval in 2026 to further validate its clinical benefits.
- Long-Term Follow-Up Advantage: The ALIGN study provides the longest follow-up period in pivotal Phase 3 studies for IgAN, ensuring a thorough assessment of Vanrafia's long-term effects, with safety consistent with previous findings, bolstering confidence in its market prospects.
- Market Reaction: Novartis shares rose 0.42% to $161.86 in premarket trading on Friday, nearing its 52-week high of $162.31, reflecting positive market expectations regarding the potential success of the drug.
See More
Novartis' Vanrafia Trial Results Show Significant Kidney Function Improvement
- Clinical Trial Results: Novartis' Vanrafia demonstrated significant kidney function improvement in the phase 3 trial for IgA nephropathy, with a 2.59 mL/min/1.73 m² increase in eGFR compared to placebo at the end of treatment, indicating its potential as a foundational therapy.
- Accelerated Approval Context: Vanrafia received accelerated approval from the FDA last April for proteinuria reduction in IgA nephropathy patients and has recently been granted similar approval in China, highlighting its global market potential.
- Market Performance: Novartis reported a core net income of $17.41 billion for full-year 2025, with earnings per share of $8.98, reflecting an increase from $15.76 billion and $7.81 per share in 2024, showcasing strong performance in drug development and sales.
- Future Plans: Novartis intends to seek traditional approval for Vanrafia this year, further solidifying its market position in kidney disease treatment and laying the groundwork for future revenue growth.
See More
Global Equities Rebound, International ETFs Gain Attention
- International Market Recovery: In 2025, the global market index surged approximately 32%, nearly double the U.S. market benchmark's 17% return, indicating a potential portfolio rotation that has caught investors' attention.
- Strong ETF Performance: The SPDR Portfolio Developed World ex-US ETF climbed over 30% in the past year, holding more than 2,300 developed-market stocks, positioning it prominently within the international recovery narrative while maintaining low fees.
- Currency Dynamics Impact: The weakening U.S. dollar boosted returns for overseas assets, particularly in Europe, where Spain's IBEX 35 index jumped around 50% and Germany's DAX rose about 23%, reflecting the positive effects of fiscal stimulus and a rebound in financial stocks.
- Potential Long-Term Trend: While American tech giants remain dominant, analysts suggest that international equities still trade at a valuation discount, and higher dividend yields abroad strengthen the case for diversification, indicating that the resurgence of international ETFs may represent a durable trend.
See More
Super Bowl LX: Seahawks Defeat Patriots 29-13
- Game Outcome: On February 8, 2026, Super Bowl LX saw the Seattle Seahawks defeat the New England Patriots 29-13, with 30 of the 42 total points scored in the fourth quarter, highlighting the game's intensity and enhancing the Seahawks' brand image.
- Ad Performance: According to USA Today's Ad Meter, brands like Anheuser-Busch, Lay's, and Dunkin' resonated well with viewers again this year, indicating effective emotional and comedic messaging strategies that continue to engage audiences.
- Viewer Feedback: Some ads featuring AI tools failed to win over viewers, reflecting a limited acceptance of technology-driven advertising among consumers, suggesting that companies need to reassess their advertising strategies to improve effectiveness.
- Market Impact: The Super Bowl remains a crucial platform for brand marketing, where successful ads can significantly boost brand visibility and directly influence sales performance, prompting companies to increase their advertising budgets in future campaigns.
See More
