Market Leadership Shift and Small-Cap Surge
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 2 days ago
0mins
Should l Buy FISV?
Source: Benzinga
- Market Leadership Change: As investor focus shifts from the 'Magnificent Seven' tech stocks to previously lagging sectors like healthcare, energy, and financials, opportunities arise for investors to uncover quality stocks in the current market environment.
- Small-Cap Performance Rebound: In the final quarter of 2025, the Russell 2000 index, which tracks small-cap stocks, began to significantly outperform the S&P 500 after a mere 4.5% gain in the first 11 months, indicating a strong rebound reminiscent of the late 1990s tech boom.
- Opportunities in Quality Large Caps: In the context of broadening market leadership, high-quality companies like Fiserv, which faced stock price declines due to earnings misses, still maintain solid fundamentals and may return to historical valuation levels, presenting investment opportunities.
- Defense Spending and Infrastructure Growth: Oshkosh benefits from sustained U.S. defense spending and infrastructure buildout, trading at a significant discount compared to large industrial peers like Caterpillar and Deere, highlighting its attractiveness and growth potential in the current market.
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Analyst Views on FISV
Wall Street analysts forecast FISV stock price to rise
28 Analyst Rating
8 Buy
20 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 58.820
Low
62.00
Averages
95.61
High
180.00
Current: 58.820
Low
62.00
Averages
95.61
High
180.00
About FISV
Fiserv, Inc. is a global provider of payments and financial services technology solutions. Its segments include Merchant Solutions (Merchant) and Financial Solutions (Financial). The businesses in its Merchant segment provide commerce-enabling products and services to companies of all sizes around the world. These products and services include merchant acquiring and digital commerce services; mobile payment services; security and fraud protection solutions; stored-value solutions; software-as-a-service; POS devices; and pay-by-bank solutions. The business lines in its Merchant segment consist of small business, enterprise, and processing. The businesses in its Financial segment provide products and services to financial institutions, corporate and public sector clients across the world, enabling the processing of customer loan and deposit accounts, digital payments and card transactions. The business lines in its Financial segment consist of digital payments, issuing, and banking.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Market Leadership Shift and Small-Cap Surge
- Market Leadership Change: As investor focus shifts from the 'Magnificent Seven' tech stocks to previously lagging sectors like healthcare, energy, and financials, opportunities arise for investors to uncover quality stocks in the current market environment.
- Small-Cap Performance Rebound: In the final quarter of 2025, the Russell 2000 index, which tracks small-cap stocks, began to significantly outperform the S&P 500 after a mere 4.5% gain in the first 11 months, indicating a strong rebound reminiscent of the late 1990s tech boom.
- Opportunities in Quality Large Caps: In the context of broadening market leadership, high-quality companies like Fiserv, which faced stock price declines due to earnings misses, still maintain solid fundamentals and may return to historical valuation levels, presenting investment opportunities.
- Defense Spending and Infrastructure Growth: Oshkosh benefits from sustained U.S. defense spending and infrastructure buildout, trading at a significant discount compared to large industrial peers like Caterpillar and Deere, highlighting its attractiveness and growth potential in the current market.
See More
Fiserv Reports Q4 2025 Results Exceeding Expectations
- Performance Exceeds Expectations: Fiserv reported Q4 2025 sales of $5.3 billion, surpassing analysts' expectations of $4.9 billion with a year-over-year increase of 1%, indicating strong performance in the fintech sector and boosting investor confidence.
- Profitability Improvement: The adjusted earnings per share reached $1.99, exceeding the expected $1.90, demonstrating significant progress in cost control and operational efficiency, thereby enhancing overall profitability.
- 2026 Guidance: Management forecasts organic revenue growth of 1% to 3% for 2026, with adjusted EPS expected between $8.00 and $8.30, reflecting confidence in future growth despite a 4% revenue growth rate in 2025.
- Positive Market Reaction: Following a 67% decline in stock price due to disappointing Q3 results, the strong performance in Q4 led to a 4.06% increase in shares, indicating investor recognition and optimism regarding the company's strategic transformation.
See More
Fiserv Q4 Earnings Beat Expectations with $1.99 EPS
- Earnings Beat: Fiserv reported a Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $1.99, exceeding expectations by $0.09, while total revenue remained flat at $4.9 billion year-over-year, indicating stable profitability amidst challenging market conditions.
- Stagnant Revenue Growth: The organic revenue growth for Q4 2025 was flat, with a 1% increase in the Merchant Solutions segment and a 2% decline in the Financial Solutions segment, reflecting intensified market competition and weak demand.
- Annual Performance Review: For the full year 2025, organic revenue growth was 4%, with 6% growth in Merchant Solutions and 2% in Financial Solutions, showing improvement but still falling short of market expectations, highlighting the complexities within the industry.
- Declining Profitability: Adjusted EPS decreased by 21% year-over-year, with adjusted operating margins at 34.9% and 37.4% for Q4 and the full year, respectively, down from 42.9% and 39.4% in 2024, indicating cost pressures and challenges to profitability.
See More
Fiserv Issues Weaker-Than-Expected 2026 Guidance, Stock Drops
- Guidance Downgrade: Fiserv's 2026 EPS guidance of $8.00-$8.30 (midpoint $8.15) falls short of the $8.20 analyst consensus, indicating a cautious outlook that may undermine investor confidence in the company's growth trajectory.
- Q4 Financial Performance: The company reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $1.99, exceeding the $1.90 consensus, yet down from $2.04 in Q3 and $2.51 in Q4 2024, reflecting a decline in profitability that raises concerns about future earnings stability.
- Revenue Growth Slowdown: Q4 adjusted revenue of $4.90 billion matched expectations but decreased from $4.92 billion in the previous quarter, highlighting increased competitive pressure, particularly with a 2% decline in Financial Solutions revenue.
- Rising Costs Impacting Margins: Total expenses reached $3.99 billion, surpassing the $3.93 billion estimate, leading to an adjusted operating margin of 34.9%, down from 37.0% in Q3 and 42.9% a year ago, indicating challenges in cost management and operational efficiency.
See More
Fiserv's 2026 Earnings Guidance Falls Short of Expectations
- Guidance Downgrade: Fiserv forecasts its 2026 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) to be between $8 and $8.3, with a midpoint of $8.15, which falls short of Wall Street's expectation of $8.2, indicating potential pressure on future profitability.
- Stable Q4 Performance: The company reported an adjusted EPS of $1.99 on revenue of $4.9 billion in Q4, aligning with Wall Street's estimates of $1.9 EPS and $4.9 billion revenue, demonstrating stability in the current market environment.
- Strong Market Sentiment: Despite the disappointing guidance, retail sentiment around Fiserv remains in the 'extremely bullish' territory, with message volumes at 'extremely high' levels, indicating strong investor confidence in the company's future.
- Executive Commentary: CFO Paul Todd noted that the fourth-quarter results and 2026 guidance are consistent with what was outlined in October, emphasizing the company's transparency and consistency in facing market challenges.
See More
Fiserv Reports Decline in Q4 Profit
- Profit Decline: Fiserv reported a fourth-quarter profit of $811 million, or $1.51 per share, down from $938 million and $1.64 per share last year, indicating a weakening in profitability that may affect investor confidence.
- Adjusted Earnings: Excluding items, Fiserv's adjusted earnings were $1.066 billion, or $1.99 per share, showing relative stability in adjusted performance, yet the overall profit decline raises concerns about future growth prospects.
- Revenue Growth: The company's revenue for the fourth quarter rose by 0.6% to $5.284 billion from $5.251 billion last year, suggesting that while revenue is increasing, the profit drop may indicate issues with cost control or intensified market competition.
- Market Reaction Outlook: Given the profit decline and lackluster revenue growth, the market may adopt a cautious stance towards Fiserv's future performance, prompting investors to closely monitor how the company addresses the challenges of declining profitability.
See More
Market Leadership Shift and Small-Cap Surge
- Market Leadership Change: As investor focus shifts from the 'Magnificent Seven' tech stocks to previously lagging sectors like healthcare, energy, and financials, opportunities arise for investors to uncover quality stocks in the current market environment.
- Small-Cap Performance Rebound: In the final quarter of 2025, the Russell 2000 index, which tracks small-cap stocks, began to significantly outperform the S&P 500 after a mere 4.5% gain in the first 11 months, indicating a strong rebound reminiscent of the late 1990s tech boom.
- Opportunities in Quality Large Caps: In the context of broadening market leadership, high-quality companies like Fiserv, which faced stock price declines due to earnings misses, still maintain solid fundamentals and may return to historical valuation levels, presenting investment opportunities.
- Defense Spending and Infrastructure Growth: Oshkosh benefits from sustained U.S. defense spending and infrastructure buildout, trading at a significant discount compared to large industrial peers like Caterpillar and Deere, highlighting its attractiveness and growth potential in the current market.
See More
Fiserv Reports Q4 2025 Results Exceeding Expectations
- Performance Exceeds Expectations: Fiserv reported Q4 2025 sales of $5.3 billion, surpassing analysts' expectations of $4.9 billion with a year-over-year increase of 1%, indicating strong performance in the fintech sector and boosting investor confidence.
- Profitability Improvement: The adjusted earnings per share reached $1.99, exceeding the expected $1.90, demonstrating significant progress in cost control and operational efficiency, thereby enhancing overall profitability.
- 2026 Guidance: Management forecasts organic revenue growth of 1% to 3% for 2026, with adjusted EPS expected between $8.00 and $8.30, reflecting confidence in future growth despite a 4% revenue growth rate in 2025.
- Positive Market Reaction: Following a 67% decline in stock price due to disappointing Q3 results, the strong performance in Q4 led to a 4.06% increase in shares, indicating investor recognition and optimism regarding the company's strategic transformation.
See More
Fiserv Q4 Earnings Beat Expectations with $1.99 EPS
- Earnings Beat: Fiserv reported a Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $1.99, exceeding expectations by $0.09, while total revenue remained flat at $4.9 billion year-over-year, indicating stable profitability amidst challenging market conditions.
- Stagnant Revenue Growth: The organic revenue growth for Q4 2025 was flat, with a 1% increase in the Merchant Solutions segment and a 2% decline in the Financial Solutions segment, reflecting intensified market competition and weak demand.
- Annual Performance Review: For the full year 2025, organic revenue growth was 4%, with 6% growth in Merchant Solutions and 2% in Financial Solutions, showing improvement but still falling short of market expectations, highlighting the complexities within the industry.
- Declining Profitability: Adjusted EPS decreased by 21% year-over-year, with adjusted operating margins at 34.9% and 37.4% for Q4 and the full year, respectively, down from 42.9% and 39.4% in 2024, indicating cost pressures and challenges to profitability.
See More
Fiserv Issues Weaker-Than-Expected 2026 Guidance, Stock Drops
- Guidance Downgrade: Fiserv's 2026 EPS guidance of $8.00-$8.30 (midpoint $8.15) falls short of the $8.20 analyst consensus, indicating a cautious outlook that may undermine investor confidence in the company's growth trajectory.
- Q4 Financial Performance: The company reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $1.99, exceeding the $1.90 consensus, yet down from $2.04 in Q3 and $2.51 in Q4 2024, reflecting a decline in profitability that raises concerns about future earnings stability.
- Revenue Growth Slowdown: Q4 adjusted revenue of $4.90 billion matched expectations but decreased from $4.92 billion in the previous quarter, highlighting increased competitive pressure, particularly with a 2% decline in Financial Solutions revenue.
- Rising Costs Impacting Margins: Total expenses reached $3.99 billion, surpassing the $3.93 billion estimate, leading to an adjusted operating margin of 34.9%, down from 37.0% in Q3 and 42.9% a year ago, indicating challenges in cost management and operational efficiency.
See More
Fiserv's 2026 Earnings Guidance Falls Short of Expectations
- Guidance Downgrade: Fiserv forecasts its 2026 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) to be between $8 and $8.3, with a midpoint of $8.15, which falls short of Wall Street's expectation of $8.2, indicating potential pressure on future profitability.
- Stable Q4 Performance: The company reported an adjusted EPS of $1.99 on revenue of $4.9 billion in Q4, aligning with Wall Street's estimates of $1.9 EPS and $4.9 billion revenue, demonstrating stability in the current market environment.
- Strong Market Sentiment: Despite the disappointing guidance, retail sentiment around Fiserv remains in the 'extremely bullish' territory, with message volumes at 'extremely high' levels, indicating strong investor confidence in the company's future.
- Executive Commentary: CFO Paul Todd noted that the fourth-quarter results and 2026 guidance are consistent with what was outlined in October, emphasizing the company's transparency and consistency in facing market challenges.
See More
Fiserv Reports Decline in Q4 Profit
- Profit Decline: Fiserv reported a fourth-quarter profit of $811 million, or $1.51 per share, down from $938 million and $1.64 per share last year, indicating a weakening in profitability that may affect investor confidence.
- Adjusted Earnings: Excluding items, Fiserv's adjusted earnings were $1.066 billion, or $1.99 per share, showing relative stability in adjusted performance, yet the overall profit decline raises concerns about future growth prospects.
- Revenue Growth: The company's revenue for the fourth quarter rose by 0.6% to $5.284 billion from $5.251 billion last year, suggesting that while revenue is increasing, the profit drop may indicate issues with cost control or intensified market competition.
- Market Reaction Outlook: Given the profit decline and lackluster revenue growth, the market may adopt a cautious stance towards Fiserv's future performance, prompting investors to closely monitor how the company addresses the challenges of declining profitability.
See More
