Investor Gary Black Warns Automakers Face BlackBerry Moment
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 19 2026
0mins
Should l Buy AAPL?
Source: Benzinga
- Investment in Autonomy: Gary Black, managing director of the Future Fund, warns that automakers not investing in autonomous driving technology risk facing a 'BlackBerry moment,' which could lead to their obsolescence and loss of competitive edge.
- Tesla's Challenges: Black highlights that Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) adoption rate is only 15%, indicating a lack of consumer awareness regarding its technical superiority, which may hinder its market share growth.
- FSD Subscription Model: Tesla plans to offer FSD as a subscription service at $99 per month after Valentine's Day, aiming to boost adoption rates and meet the targets outlined in Musk's $1 trillion pay package.
- Market Reaction: Tesla's stock slipped 0.24% to $437.50 at market close on January 16, reflecting cautious market sentiment regarding its future growth potential amid increasing competition.
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Analyst Views on AAPL
Wall Street analysts forecast AAPL stock price to rise
27 Analyst Rating
17 Buy
9 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 248.800
Low
239.00
Averages
306.89
High
350.00
Current: 248.800
Low
239.00
Averages
306.89
High
350.00
About AAPL
Apple Inc. designs, manufactures and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables and accessories, and sells a variety of related services. Its product categories include iPhone, Mac, iPad, and Wearables, Home and Accessories. Its software platforms include iOS, iPadOS, macOS, watchOS, visionOS, and tvOS. Its services include advertising, AppleCare, cloud services, digital content and payment services. The Company operates various platforms, including the App Store, that allow customers to discover and download applications and digital content, such as books, music, video, games and podcasts. It also offers digital content through subscription-based services, including Apple Arcade, Apple Fitness+, Apple Music, Apple News+, and Apple TV+. Its products include iPhone 16 Pro, iPhone 16, iPhone 15, iPhone 14, iPhone SE, MacBook Air, MacBook Pro, iMac, Mac mini, Mac Studio, Mac Pro, iPad Pro, iPad Air, AirPods, AirPods Pro, AirPods Max, Apple TV, Apple Vision Pro and others.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Apple Inc's Intrinsic Value Analysis Using DCF
- Intrinsic Value Assessment: According to GuruFocus's Discounted Earnings model, Apple's intrinsic value is estimated at $179.13, while its current trading price is $248.8, indicating a modest overvaluation with a margin of safety of -38.89%.
- Discount Rate Setting: The model employs an 11% discount rate, derived from a 4.4% 10-year Treasury yield plus a 6% risk premium, ensuring the assessment reflects market risks and is grounded in realistic expectations.
- Growth Stage Assumptions: In the growth stage, Apple's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to grow at an annual rate of 15.20% for 10 years, based on historical EPS growth data from the past decade, highlighting the company's future growth potential.
- Terminal Stage Forecast: In the terminal stage, EPS is expected to grow at a rate of 4% over 10 years, ensuring this growth rate remains below the discount rate to facilitate convergence in calculations, indicating the company's long-term stability.
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Apple's Product Rollout Sparks Investor Interest
- Investment Rating Reaffirmed: Melius Research reiterated its Buy rating on Apple, highlighting the company's free cash flow and the upcoming product rollout, suggesting a potential recovery in stock price, which reflects market confidence in Apple's future performance.
- New Product Launches: Apple recently announced the iPhone 17e, a refreshed iPad Air, new MacBook Air and MacBook Pro, along with new Studio Displays and AirPods Max 2, marking one of the most lucrative product launches since the big screen iPhones in 2014.
- Stock Performance: While Apple shares saw a modest increase in premarket trading, they have declined approximately 8% year-to-date; however, over the past 12 months, the stock has gained 12%, indicating market recognition of its long-term growth potential.
- Market Dynamics: As Apple approaches its 50th anniversary, it has garnered investor interest, particularly in light of its new product launches and strategic adjustments, which could positively impact its stock price.
See More
Investors at a Crossroads with AI: Concerns and Opportunities
- Investor Anxiety: While investors remain optimistic about AI's potential, there are concerns regarding the significant spending on AI infrastructure by the 'Magnificent Seven,' with projected capital expenditures nearing $700 billion in 2025, leading to a decline in overall valuations.
- Meta's Low Valuation: Meta Platforms is currently trading at a PE ratio of less than 20 times forward earnings, with projected capital expenditures for 2026 ranging from $115 billion to $135 billion, a 73% increase from last year, primarily aimed at supporting AI infrastructure, raising concerns about investment returns.
- Advertising Business Potential: Meta reported a 24% year-over-year increase in advertising revenue in 2025, highlighting AI's potential in enhancing ad targeting, although investors are wary of Zuckerberg's investment strategies, especially following his significant bet on the metaverse.
- Alphabet's Success: Alphabet's stock has risen over 75% in the past year, successfully overcoming a high-profile lawsuit from the U.S. Department of Justice, demonstrating the competitiveness of its AI models and positioning itself as a value investment choice within the 'Magnificent Seven,' attracting investor interest.
See More
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- Price Increase Strategy: Netflix has announced price hikes across all plans, with the premium plan rising to $26.99 per month, standard to $19.99, and ad-supported to $8.99, reflecting the company's confidence in pricing amid inflationary pressures aimed at boosting revenue and maintaining profitability.
- User Growth and Profitability: Despite economic challenges, Netflix has sustained subscriber growth and significantly improved margins, shifting investor focus from total subscribers to profitability, indicating the company's resilience in economic cycles.
- Non-Household User Charges: Netflix has also increased charges for non-household users, with ad-free users now paying $9.99 and ad-supported users $6.99 per month, further enhancing overall revenue and demonstrating the effectiveness of its user retention strategies.
- Economic Impact Assessment: This price increase is seen as a litmus test for the U.S. economy; if subscriber losses exceed revenue gains, it could signal weakening household spending, which drives 70% of U.S. GDP, prompting investors to carefully assess market dynamics.
See More
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- Significant Funding Round: Whoop raised $575 million in its latest Series G funding, achieving a valuation of $10.1 billion, which underscores its strong appeal in the wearable device market and investor confidence.
- Strong Investor Lineup: The funding round was led by Collaborative Fund and included participation from prominent institutions like Qatar Investment Authority and Mubadala Investment Company, along with sports stars such as Cristiano Ronaldo and LeBron James, enhancing brand visibility.
- Rapid Business Growth: Whoop currently boasts 2.5 million members, with bookings growing 103% year-over-year, and exited 2025 with a bookings run rate of $1.1 billion, indicating the success of its business model and robust market demand.
- Leading Technological Innovations: The newly launched Whoop MG model received FDA clearance for medical-grade ECG and blood pressure monitoring, marking a significant shift towards clinical health integration, while continuing to leverage AI for personalized training recommendations, enhancing user experience.
See More
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- Sector Underperformance: In 2026, the technology sector ranks as the second-worst performer in the S&P 500, with Apple shares down over 10% year-to-date, indicating a broader industry weakness.
- Analyst Optimism: Morgan Stanley analysts project a nearly 28% increase in Apple's stock price over the next 12 months, with about 60% of analysts rating it as a 'buy' or 'strong buy', reflecting strong market confidence in the company.
- Strong Upgrade Demand: Morgan Stanley's Global Smartphone Survey reveals a record high in the number of consumers in the U.S. and China planning to upgrade to new iPhones in the next 12 months, suggesting that Apple is poised to gain market share despite industry challenges.
- Foldable Phone Potential: The survey indicates that 27% of current iPhone users are 'extremely interested' in purchasing a foldable iPhone, with projections suggesting that Apple could more than double the global foldable smartphone market within 18 months of its launch, potentially generating up to $60 billion in annual revenue.
See More
Apple Inc's Intrinsic Value Analysis Using DCF
- Intrinsic Value Assessment: According to GuruFocus's Discounted Earnings model, Apple's intrinsic value is estimated at $179.13, while its current trading price is $248.8, indicating a modest overvaluation with a margin of safety of -38.89%.
- Discount Rate Setting: The model employs an 11% discount rate, derived from a 4.4% 10-year Treasury yield plus a 6% risk premium, ensuring the assessment reflects market risks and is grounded in realistic expectations.
- Growth Stage Assumptions: In the growth stage, Apple's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to grow at an annual rate of 15.20% for 10 years, based on historical EPS growth data from the past decade, highlighting the company's future growth potential.
- Terminal Stage Forecast: In the terminal stage, EPS is expected to grow at a rate of 4% over 10 years, ensuring this growth rate remains below the discount rate to facilitate convergence in calculations, indicating the company's long-term stability.
See More
Apple's Product Rollout Sparks Investor Interest
- Investment Rating Reaffirmed: Melius Research reiterated its Buy rating on Apple, highlighting the company's free cash flow and the upcoming product rollout, suggesting a potential recovery in stock price, which reflects market confidence in Apple's future performance.
- New Product Launches: Apple recently announced the iPhone 17e, a refreshed iPad Air, new MacBook Air and MacBook Pro, along with new Studio Displays and AirPods Max 2, marking one of the most lucrative product launches since the big screen iPhones in 2014.
- Stock Performance: While Apple shares saw a modest increase in premarket trading, they have declined approximately 8% year-to-date; however, over the past 12 months, the stock has gained 12%, indicating market recognition of its long-term growth potential.
- Market Dynamics: As Apple approaches its 50th anniversary, it has garnered investor interest, particularly in light of its new product launches and strategic adjustments, which could positively impact its stock price.
See More
Investors at a Crossroads with AI: Concerns and Opportunities
- Investor Anxiety: While investors remain optimistic about AI's potential, there are concerns regarding the significant spending on AI infrastructure by the 'Magnificent Seven,' with projected capital expenditures nearing $700 billion in 2025, leading to a decline in overall valuations.
- Meta's Low Valuation: Meta Platforms is currently trading at a PE ratio of less than 20 times forward earnings, with projected capital expenditures for 2026 ranging from $115 billion to $135 billion, a 73% increase from last year, primarily aimed at supporting AI infrastructure, raising concerns about investment returns.
- Advertising Business Potential: Meta reported a 24% year-over-year increase in advertising revenue in 2025, highlighting AI's potential in enhancing ad targeting, although investors are wary of Zuckerberg's investment strategies, especially following his significant bet on the metaverse.
- Alphabet's Success: Alphabet's stock has risen over 75% in the past year, successfully overcoming a high-profile lawsuit from the U.S. Department of Justice, demonstrating the competitiveness of its AI models and positioning itself as a value investment choice within the 'Magnificent Seven,' attracting investor interest.
See More
Netflix Raises Prices Amid Inflationary Pressures
- Price Increase Strategy: Netflix has announced price hikes across all plans, with the premium plan rising to $26.99 per month, standard to $19.99, and ad-supported to $8.99, reflecting the company's confidence in pricing amid inflationary pressures aimed at boosting revenue and maintaining profitability.
- User Growth and Profitability: Despite economic challenges, Netflix has sustained subscriber growth and significantly improved margins, shifting investor focus from total subscribers to profitability, indicating the company's resilience in economic cycles.
- Non-Household User Charges: Netflix has also increased charges for non-household users, with ad-free users now paying $9.99 and ad-supported users $6.99 per month, further enhancing overall revenue and demonstrating the effectiveness of its user retention strategies.
- Economic Impact Assessment: This price increase is seen as a litmus test for the U.S. economy; if subscriber losses exceed revenue gains, it could signal weakening household spending, which drives 70% of U.S. GDP, prompting investors to carefully assess market dynamics.
See More
Whoop Secures $575 Million in Series G Funding
- Significant Funding Round: Whoop raised $575 million in its latest Series G funding, achieving a valuation of $10.1 billion, which underscores its strong appeal in the wearable device market and investor confidence.
- Strong Investor Lineup: The funding round was led by Collaborative Fund and included participation from prominent institutions like Qatar Investment Authority and Mubadala Investment Company, along with sports stars such as Cristiano Ronaldo and LeBron James, enhancing brand visibility.
- Rapid Business Growth: Whoop currently boasts 2.5 million members, with bookings growing 103% year-over-year, and exited 2025 with a bookings run rate of $1.1 billion, indicating the success of its business model and robust market demand.
- Leading Technological Innovations: The newly launched Whoop MG model received FDA clearance for medical-grade ECG and blood pressure monitoring, marking a significant shift towards clinical health integration, while continuing to leverage AI for personalized training recommendations, enhancing user experience.
See More
Apple's Stock Declines but Outlook Remains Positive
- Sector Underperformance: In 2026, the technology sector ranks as the second-worst performer in the S&P 500, with Apple shares down over 10% year-to-date, indicating a broader industry weakness.
- Analyst Optimism: Morgan Stanley analysts project a nearly 28% increase in Apple's stock price over the next 12 months, with about 60% of analysts rating it as a 'buy' or 'strong buy', reflecting strong market confidence in the company.
- Strong Upgrade Demand: Morgan Stanley's Global Smartphone Survey reveals a record high in the number of consumers in the U.S. and China planning to upgrade to new iPhones in the next 12 months, suggesting that Apple is poised to gain market share despite industry challenges.
- Foldable Phone Potential: The survey indicates that 27% of current iPhone users are 'extremely interested' in purchasing a foldable iPhone, with projections suggesting that Apple could more than double the global foldable smartphone market within 18 months of its launch, potentially generating up to $60 billion in annual revenue.
See More
