Home Depot and Lowe's: Capitalizing on the Earnings Decline
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Mar 01 2026
0mins
Source: Marketbeat
Market Performance: Home Depot and Lowe's reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings, yet their stock prices fell, indicating market concerns about future performance amid a challenging housing market and high mortgage rates.
Economic Challenges: Both companies cited a frozen housing market as a primary reason for conservative guidance in fiscal year 2026, with homeowners reluctant to move due to low interest rates on existing mortgages.
Revenue Generation: Despite current economic pressures, both retailers are generating substantial revenue and profit, with Home Depot reporting earnings per share of $2.72 and Lowe's at $1.98, both exceeding analyst expectations.
Future Outlook: The companies are adapting their business models to capture stable revenue streams from professional contractors, while also managing costs to maintain profitability in a volatile market environment.
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Analyst Views on HD
Wall Street analysts forecast HD stock price to rise
23 Analyst Rating
17 Buy
5 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 357.920
Low
320.00
Averages
401.47
High
441.00
Current: 357.920
Low
320.00
Averages
401.47
High
441.00
About HD
The Home Depot, Inc. is a home improvement specialty retailer. The Company offers an assortment of building materials, home improvement products, lawn and garden products, decor products, and facilities maintenance, repair, and operations products, in stores and online. It also provides various services, including home improvement installation services, and tool and equipment rental. The Company operates approximately 2,353 retail stores, over 800 branches and more than 325 distribution centers that directly fulfill customer orders across all 50 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Guam, 10 Canadian provinces and Mexico. Its stores average approximately 105,000 square feet of enclosed space, with approximately 24,000 additional square feet of outside garden area. The Company serves two primary customer groups, including both do-it-yourself (DIY) and Do-It-For-Me (DIFM) customers and Professional Customers (Pros).
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Home Depot Faces Economic Volatility Challenges
- Weak Revenue Growth: Home Depot reported a 3.2% revenue growth in fiscal 2025, primarily driven by a same-store sales increase of 0.3%, but the outlook remains bleak amid high interest rates and low consumer confidence.
- Professional Customer Advantage: Although only 10% of Home Depot's customer base consists of professional clients, they account for about 50% of net sales, highlighting the company's strong competitive position in high-value customer segments, especially compared to Lowe's 30% penetration.
- Consistent Dividend Growth: Home Depot has paid dividends for 156 consecutive quarters, with a current yield of 2.5%, significantly higher than the S&P 500 average, and a 238% increase in dividends over the past decade, appealing to income investors.
- Poor Market Performance: Despite an average net income margin of 9.7% over the past decade, Home Depot's stock has underperformed the S&P 500, trading 14% below its peak, reflecting market concerns about its future growth prospects.
See More
Challenges and Opportunities in Home Improvement Sector
- Weak Revenue Growth: In fiscal 2025, Home Depot reported only 3.2% revenue growth with a same-store sales increase of 0.3%, primarily impacted by high interest rates and low consumer confidence, which have dampened homeowners' willingness to start renovation projects, reflecting pressure from the macroeconomic environment.
- Professional Customer Advantage: Approximately 50% of Home Depot's net sales come from professional customers, who represent only 10% of the customer base, yet these high-value shoppers outperformed DIY customers in sales during the fourth quarter, showcasing the company's strong competitive position in the professional market.
- Consistent Dividend Growth: Home Depot has paid dividends for 156 consecutive quarters, with a current yield of 2.5%, significantly higher than the S&P 500 average, and a 238% increase in payouts over the past decade, making it attractive to income investors.
- Future Revenue Expectations: Home Depot's revenue is projected to grow at a compound annual rate of 4.2% between fiscal 2025 and 2028, and while this growth rate has not sparked investor enthusiasm, the company's strong position in the professional market may provide support for future growth.
See More
Home Depot and Nike Face Market Challenges Amid Economic Pressures
- Home Depot Sales Decline: Home Depot's stock has fallen over 6% in the past year, with Q4 fiscal 2025 sales dropping 3.8% year-over-year to $38.2 billion, reflecting ongoing consumer uncertainty and persistent weakness in the housing market; however, the company maintains a strong track record with 156 consecutive quarterly dividends, indicating financial stability.
- Nike's Performance Pressure: Nike's stock has slid nearly 27% over the last 12 months, with fiscal Q2 earnings per share plunging 32% year-over-year to $0.53, although revenue grew 1% year-over-year to $12.4 billion, demonstrating the company's efforts to navigate a challenging consumer environment through internal turnaround initiatives.
- Investment Opportunities Arise: Despite facing macroeconomic challenges, both Home Depot and Nike's healthy balance sheets and reliable dividends make them attractive for long-term investors, with Home Depot offering a dividend yield of 2.6% and Nike at 2.9%, providing returns while waiting for market recovery.
- Market Sentiment Impact: Consumer discretionary spending is under scrutiny, leading to negative sentiment affecting stocks tied to housing and fashion; however, this sentiment may create buying opportunities for investors when stocks experience significant declines, especially if these companies can effectively manage economic pressures.
See More
Consumer Spending Caution Creates Investment Opportunities in Home Depot and Nike
- Home Depot Sales Pressure: Home Depot's stock has fallen about 6% over the past 12 months, with fourth-quarter sales declining 3.8% year-over-year to $38.2 billion, reflecting ongoing consumer uncertainty and persistent weakness in the housing market; however, the company announced its 156th consecutive quarterly dividend, indicating strong earnings support.
- Nike Performance Decline: Nike's stock has plummeted nearly 27% in the last year, with second-quarter earnings per share dropping 32% year-over-year to $0.53, although revenue grew 1% to $12.4 billion, demonstrating the company's commitment to internal turnaround efforts amid challenging conditions.
- Attractive Dividends: With a dividend yield of 2.6% for Home Depot and 2.9% for Nike, both companies present appealing options for investors seeking stable cash flow amidst current market uncertainties, particularly for long-term investors.
- Market Opportunities: Despite macroeconomic challenges, Home Depot and Nike, with their strong brands and financial strength, can maintain operating cash flow during downturns, allowing investors to gradually build positions at lower prices, potentially reaping higher returns when market conditions improve.
See More
Home Depot Launches Real-Time Delivery Tracker for Large Materials
- Real-Time Delivery Tracking: Home Depot plans to launch the industry's first real-time delivery tracker for large materials by the end of Q1, aimed at enhancing professional customers' planning and accuracy for complex projects, thereby reducing productivity losses due to delivery delays.
- Efficiency Gains: According to an industry analysis by Autodesk, construction professionals spend over 14 hours a week (35%) on non-productive activities, and the new tracking feature will help customers manage their time and resources more effectively by providing real-time updates.
- Technological Innovation: The tracker is powered by Home Depot's Driver Handheld™ app, which transmits GPS data in real-time, allowing customers to view truck locations and remaining stops on the app and website, thus enhancing transparency in the delivery process.
- Market Leadership: Home Depot's Senior Vice President Dee Walk stated that this technology will eliminate blind spots in the delivery of building materials, improve customer experience, and further solidify Home Depot's leadership position in the home improvement retail market.
See More
US Customs Faces Refund Order for Illegal Tariffs
- Refund Order: A judge from the Court of International Trade has ordered the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) to calculate the cost of imports without tariffs and refund importers who paid IEEPA tariffs, highlighting legal challenges to Trump's tariff policies.
- Tariff Total: As of Wednesday, CBP reported that approximately $166 billion in IEEPA tariffs has been collected, involving over 330,000 importers and more than 53 million entries, reflecting the profound impact of tariff policies on trade.
- Legal Litigation: Many importers have filed lawsuits seeking refunds for tariffs deemed illegal by the Trump administration, and the court's ruling could significantly affect future trade policies and the financial health of importers.
- Execution Capability Questioned: Judge Eaton emphasized that CBP is capable of handling refund processes, pointing out that the agency routinely liquidates entries and issues refunds, underscoring its responsibility in executing legal orders.
See More
Home Depot Faces Economic Volatility Challenges
- Weak Revenue Growth: Home Depot reported a 3.2% revenue growth in fiscal 2025, primarily driven by a same-store sales increase of 0.3%, but the outlook remains bleak amid high interest rates and low consumer confidence.
- Professional Customer Advantage: Although only 10% of Home Depot's customer base consists of professional clients, they account for about 50% of net sales, highlighting the company's strong competitive position in high-value customer segments, especially compared to Lowe's 30% penetration.
- Consistent Dividend Growth: Home Depot has paid dividends for 156 consecutive quarters, with a current yield of 2.5%, significantly higher than the S&P 500 average, and a 238% increase in dividends over the past decade, appealing to income investors.
- Poor Market Performance: Despite an average net income margin of 9.7% over the past decade, Home Depot's stock has underperformed the S&P 500, trading 14% below its peak, reflecting market concerns about its future growth prospects.
See More
Challenges and Opportunities in Home Improvement Sector
- Weak Revenue Growth: In fiscal 2025, Home Depot reported only 3.2% revenue growth with a same-store sales increase of 0.3%, primarily impacted by high interest rates and low consumer confidence, which have dampened homeowners' willingness to start renovation projects, reflecting pressure from the macroeconomic environment.
- Professional Customer Advantage: Approximately 50% of Home Depot's net sales come from professional customers, who represent only 10% of the customer base, yet these high-value shoppers outperformed DIY customers in sales during the fourth quarter, showcasing the company's strong competitive position in the professional market.
- Consistent Dividend Growth: Home Depot has paid dividends for 156 consecutive quarters, with a current yield of 2.5%, significantly higher than the S&P 500 average, and a 238% increase in payouts over the past decade, making it attractive to income investors.
- Future Revenue Expectations: Home Depot's revenue is projected to grow at a compound annual rate of 4.2% between fiscal 2025 and 2028, and while this growth rate has not sparked investor enthusiasm, the company's strong position in the professional market may provide support for future growth.
See More
Home Depot and Nike Face Market Challenges Amid Economic Pressures
- Home Depot Sales Decline: Home Depot's stock has fallen over 6% in the past year, with Q4 fiscal 2025 sales dropping 3.8% year-over-year to $38.2 billion, reflecting ongoing consumer uncertainty and persistent weakness in the housing market; however, the company maintains a strong track record with 156 consecutive quarterly dividends, indicating financial stability.
- Nike's Performance Pressure: Nike's stock has slid nearly 27% over the last 12 months, with fiscal Q2 earnings per share plunging 32% year-over-year to $0.53, although revenue grew 1% year-over-year to $12.4 billion, demonstrating the company's efforts to navigate a challenging consumer environment through internal turnaround initiatives.
- Investment Opportunities Arise: Despite facing macroeconomic challenges, both Home Depot and Nike's healthy balance sheets and reliable dividends make them attractive for long-term investors, with Home Depot offering a dividend yield of 2.6% and Nike at 2.9%, providing returns while waiting for market recovery.
- Market Sentiment Impact: Consumer discretionary spending is under scrutiny, leading to negative sentiment affecting stocks tied to housing and fashion; however, this sentiment may create buying opportunities for investors when stocks experience significant declines, especially if these companies can effectively manage economic pressures.
See More
Consumer Spending Caution Creates Investment Opportunities in Home Depot and Nike
- Home Depot Sales Pressure: Home Depot's stock has fallen about 6% over the past 12 months, with fourth-quarter sales declining 3.8% year-over-year to $38.2 billion, reflecting ongoing consumer uncertainty and persistent weakness in the housing market; however, the company announced its 156th consecutive quarterly dividend, indicating strong earnings support.
- Nike Performance Decline: Nike's stock has plummeted nearly 27% in the last year, with second-quarter earnings per share dropping 32% year-over-year to $0.53, although revenue grew 1% to $12.4 billion, demonstrating the company's commitment to internal turnaround efforts amid challenging conditions.
- Attractive Dividends: With a dividend yield of 2.6% for Home Depot and 2.9% for Nike, both companies present appealing options for investors seeking stable cash flow amidst current market uncertainties, particularly for long-term investors.
- Market Opportunities: Despite macroeconomic challenges, Home Depot and Nike, with their strong brands and financial strength, can maintain operating cash flow during downturns, allowing investors to gradually build positions at lower prices, potentially reaping higher returns when market conditions improve.
See More
Home Depot Launches Real-Time Delivery Tracker for Large Materials
- Real-Time Delivery Tracking: Home Depot plans to launch the industry's first real-time delivery tracker for large materials by the end of Q1, aimed at enhancing professional customers' planning and accuracy for complex projects, thereby reducing productivity losses due to delivery delays.
- Efficiency Gains: According to an industry analysis by Autodesk, construction professionals spend over 14 hours a week (35%) on non-productive activities, and the new tracking feature will help customers manage their time and resources more effectively by providing real-time updates.
- Technological Innovation: The tracker is powered by Home Depot's Driver Handheld™ app, which transmits GPS data in real-time, allowing customers to view truck locations and remaining stops on the app and website, thus enhancing transparency in the delivery process.
- Market Leadership: Home Depot's Senior Vice President Dee Walk stated that this technology will eliminate blind spots in the delivery of building materials, improve customer experience, and further solidify Home Depot's leadership position in the home improvement retail market.
See More
US Customs Faces Refund Order for Illegal Tariffs
- Refund Order: A judge from the Court of International Trade has ordered the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) to calculate the cost of imports without tariffs and refund importers who paid IEEPA tariffs, highlighting legal challenges to Trump's tariff policies.
- Tariff Total: As of Wednesday, CBP reported that approximately $166 billion in IEEPA tariffs has been collected, involving over 330,000 importers and more than 53 million entries, reflecting the profound impact of tariff policies on trade.
- Legal Litigation: Many importers have filed lawsuits seeking refunds for tariffs deemed illegal by the Trump administration, and the court's ruling could significantly affect future trade policies and the financial health of importers.
- Execution Capability Questioned: Judge Eaton emphasized that CBP is capable of handling refund processes, pointing out that the agency routinely liquidates entries and issues refunds, underscoring its responsibility in executing legal orders.
See More
