Should I Buy HD? HD 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Home Depot Inc (HD) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Buy

Latest Price

374.590

1 Day change

0.75%

52 Week Range

426.750

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/29

BUY for a beginner, long-term investor with $50k–$100k who doesn’t want to wait for a perfect entry. HD is trading near key support (S1 ~373) after a mild pullback, Wall Street targets skew higher (recent raises up to $450), and congressional trading shows net buying (10 buys vs 4 sells). Near-term upside may be choppy into earnings (2026-02-24), but the setup favors accumulating now rather than waiting.

Technical Analysis

Price/Trend: HD closed ~375.15, slightly down on the day and sitting below the pivot (380.70) and just above first support (S1 373.33). This is a ‘support-test’ zone rather than a breakout zone. Momentum: MACD histogram is positive (0.704) but contracting, implying upside momentum exists but is weakening short-term. RSI(6) ~45.6 is neutral-to-slightly weak, consistent with consolidation rather than a strong uptrend. Moving averages: Converging MAs suggest a range/consolidation phase. Levels to watch: Support 373.33 then 368.77; resistance 380.70 then 388.07. Pattern odds (provided): Next month bias slightly negative (-3.11%), so expect bumps, but long-term entry near support is still attractive. **Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals** - [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today. - [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock today.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bearish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment read: Open interest put/call at 0.78 leans bullish positioning overall (more calls than puts outstanding). However, the volume put/call at 1.42 shows heavier put trading today, suggesting near-term caution/hedging. Activity/volatility: Options volume is extremely elevated vs the 30-day average (~398%); IV (30D ~26.83) is above historical vol (~23.8) and IV percentile is high (71.2). This points to heightened event-driven positioning (earnings on 2026-02-24 is the obvious catalyst).

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

Analyst sentiment improving: multiple recent price target raises (e.g., TD Cowen to $450; Truist to $
and many Buy/Overweight ratings reinforce long-term confidence.
Efficiency actions: layoffs + 5-day RTO may support margins/operational execution over time.
Event-driven tailwinds: near-term weather (snowstorm mention) can lift demand for certain categories.
Political/influential flow: Congress trading over last 90 days shows net accumulation (10 purchases vs 4 sales; larger purchase sizes).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Near-term fundamentals are not accelerating strongly: EPS and net income slightly down YoY in the latest quarter despite revenue growth.
Housing recovery timing uncertainty: several analysts note recovery could be later than hoped (some commentary points to 2027+ for meaningful improvement).
Options tape shows short-term defensiveness: put volume outweighs call volume today (volume P/C 1.42), consistent with caution into upcoming earnings.
Technical posture is range-bound: below pivot resistance (380.
with contracting MACD momentum—breakout not confirmed.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2026/Q3. - Revenue: $41.352B, +2.82% YoY (modest top-line growth). - Net Income: $3.601B, -1.29% YoY (slight decline). - EPS: $3.62, -1.36% YoY (slight decline). - Gross Margin: 31.41%, +0.03% YoY (stable to slightly improving). Takeaway: Growth is steady on revenue, but profitability is slightly softer—consistent with a late-cycle/home-improvement slowdown rather than a breakdown.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: Mostly constructive. Into late 2025/early 2026, several firms raised price targets (TD Cowen 450 from 410; Truist 405 from 390/375; Goldman raised to 413), while a few trimmed targets after guidance/investor day (RBC to 366 Sector Perform; others lowered but kept Buy/Outperform/Overweight). Wall Street pros: strong competitive position, share gains, Pro customer momentum, tech/AI initiatives, and earnings leverage when housing improves. Wall Street cons: recovery timing is uncertain and some targets imply the stock already prices in a faster housing rebound than may occur.

23 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast HD stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HD is 401.47 USD with a low forecast of 320 USD and a high forecast of 441 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

17 Buy

5 Hold

1 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 371.810

Low

320

Averages

401.47

High

441

Current: 371.810

Low

320

Averages

401.47

High

441

TD Cowen

Max Rakhlenko

Buy

maintain

$410 -> $450

AI Analysis

2026-01-20

Reason

TD Cowen

Max Rakhlenko

Price Target

$410 -> $450

AI Analysis

2026-01-20

maintain

Buy

Reason

TD Cowen analyst Max Rakhlenko raised the firm's price target on Home Depot to $450 from $410 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the hardlines group. Planet Fitness is TD's top idea, followed by Home Depot and O'Reilly Automotive.

Truist

Buy

maintain

$390 -> $405

2026-01-16

Reason

Truist

Price Target

$390 -> $405

2026-01-16

maintain

Buy

Reason

Truist raised the firm's price target on Home Depot to $405 from $390 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares as part of a broader research note on Hardlines/Broadlines consumer names. The firm is citing its latest Truist Card reads and ICR holiday updates in adjusting its sales and earnings estimates, though it also believes that a significant increase in tax refunds will likely boost sales across the retail space in what are typically seasonally softer months, the analyst tells investors in a research note. For the company, sales trends have remained stable in December despite more difficult comparisons, the firm added.

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HD Should I Buy

HD Should I Buy

Should You Buy Home Depot Inc (HD) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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