Earnings Report Ahead of Market Opening for November 7, 2025: CEG, KKR, ENB, DUK, BAM, TU, BIP, CNH, BEN, FLR, ESNT, MKTX
Earnings Reports Overview: Several companies, including Constellation Energy, KKR, and Duke Energy, are set to report their earnings for the quarter ending September 30, 2025, with varying forecasts and performance expectations.
Performance Expectations: Constellation Energy is expected to see a 10.95% increase in earnings per share, while KKR and Enbridge anticipate decreases of 2.54% and 2.50%, respectively.
Price to Earnings Ratios: Most companies, such as Duke Energy and Brookfield Asset Management, are projected to have higher Price to Earnings ratios compared to their industry averages, indicating potential for greater earnings growth.
Analyst Consensus: The consensus earnings forecasts show mixed results, with some companies like Brookfield Infrastructure Partners expecting increases, while others like CNH Industrial are facing significant declines in earnings per share.
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- Rising Default Risks: UBS analysts project that corporate loan defaults could reach between $75 billion and $120 billion over the next year, particularly impacting software and data services firms owned by private equity, thereby exacerbating instability in the credit markets.
- Delayed Market Reaction: Analysts note that the market has been slow to respond to the rapid advancements in AI technology, with many investors failing to timely recalibrate their views on credit evaluations, leading to an underestimation of credit risks that could trigger broader credit tightening.
- Potential Credit Crisis: In a worst-case scenario, default rates could double the baseline estimates, resulting in a sharp decline in liquidity in the credit markets, creating what is known as a 'tail risk' that could severely impact many companies.
- Industry Classification Impact: Mish categorizes companies into three groups, indicating that creators of foundational large language models like Anthropic and OpenAI are likely to emerge as winners, while high-debt private equity-owned software firms face greater survival pressures and may be eliminated in the AI transformation.
- Software Sector Hit: The iShares Tech-Expanded Software Sector ETF (NYSE:IGV) has plummeted nearly 20% year-to-date, making it the worst-performing industry, as fears mount that AI tools could disintermediate traditional software providers, causing forward P/E ratios for application software to drop from 35.3 to 23.7 and systems software from 35.5 to 23.3, reflecting market concerns over future earnings durability.
- Brokerage Pressure: Investment banks and brokerage firms are under pressure following the rollout of AI tools by fintech firm Altruist, with forward P/E ratios declining from 24.7 to 15.9, as the market fears that AI could replace traditional advisors in the future, leading to long-term margin compression.
- Insurance Broker Anxiety: Insurance brokers are facing disruption due to the integration of AI-driven tools, with the S&P Insurance Brokers industry index down 4% year-to-date; while the insurance sector remains relationship-driven, there are concerns that AI could erode commissions, impacting brokers' income stability.
- Asset Management Damage: Alternative asset managers are indirectly affected by significant exposure to private software companies, with many large firms down double digits year-to-date, as declining public software valuations raise concerns about their private portfolios, shrinking exit opportunities.
- Election Impact: Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and her ruling LDP secured a supermajority in the election, controlling over two-thirds of the Lower House, which allows her to freely pursue an agenda of increased spending and suspension of certain food taxes, likely stimulating economic growth further.
- Market Surge: Following the election results, Japanese stocks reached a record high, with the yen strengthening to 156.88 per dollar, reflecting renewed investor confidence and indicating positive market expectations regarding Takaichi's policies.
- U.S. Market Rebound: Major U.S. indexes rebounded post-election, with the S&P 500 rising 1.97% and the Nasdaq Composite climbing 2.18%, driven by strong performances from tech stocks like Nvidia and Oracle, which bolstered global investor confidence.
- Private Credit Concerns: The private credit market faces renewed uncertainty as AI pressures software companies, raising investor concerns about borrower business models and potentially increasing default risks, which could impact overall financial stability.
- Increased Pressure on Software Sector: The introduction of new AI tools by Anthropic has triggered a sell-off in software data provider shares, intensifying uncertainty in the private credit market, particularly regarding lending risks to software companies.
- Decline in Asset Management Stocks: Ares Management fell over 12%, Blue Owl Capital dropped more than 8%, and KKR and TPG saw declines of nearly 10% and 7%, respectively, reflecting investor concerns about AI's potential impact on cash flows and default risks.
- Rising Default Risks: UBS Group has warned that in an aggressive disruption scenario, default rates in U.S. private credit could rise to 13%, significantly higher than the projected stress for leveraged loans and high-yield bonds, estimated at 8% and 4%, respectively.
- Liquidity Issues Intensified: Although strains in private credit predate AI concerns, Jeffrey C. Hooke noted that existing liquidity and loan extension issues have been exacerbated by recent developments, adding new challenges to an already pressured sector.
- Musk Ordered to Testify: A federal judge has ruled that Elon Musk must testify regarding his role in dismantling USAID, rejecting his legal team's attempt to avoid questioning, which could impact Musk's reputation and future business endeavors.
- Alphabet Beats Earnings Estimates: Alphabet reported fourth-quarter revenue of $113.83 billion, surpassing the Street consensus estimate of $111.31 billion, with earnings per share of $2.82 exceeding expectations of $2.63, indicating strong performance in advertising and cloud services that may drive stock price increases.
- Amazon Delivery Milestone: Amazon announced it delivered over 13 billion items globally in 2025, with more than 8 billion items reaching U.S. Prime members the same or next day, a speed enhancement that will further strengthen its competitive position in the e-commerce market.
- Tesla's New Model Launch: Tesla unveiled a new All-Wheel Drive variant of the Model Y in the U.S. and Puerto Rico following Elon Musk's announcement of discontinuing the Model S and X, which could attract more consumers and enhance market share.
- PayPal Oversold Status: PayPal's RSI is below 11, with shares plummeting over 24% this week, marking its worst weekly performance ever, primarily due to a weak 2026 profit outlook and CEO replacement, indicating market concerns about its future profitability.
- Coinbase Market Performance: Coinbase has an RSI of about 14, with shares down 25% this week linked to a plunge in Bitcoin prices; however, it regained some ground on Friday, and analysts remain optimistic, expecting the stock to double over the next year, reflecting confidence in digital assets.
- KKR Oversold Risk: KKR's RSI is below 20, with shares tracking down more than 13% this week amid fears that AI could disrupt the application software industry, yet most analysts maintain a buy rating, projecting a 53% increase in stock price over the coming year, showcasing investor confidence in its long-term potential.
- Market Sentiment Volatility: Following significant market swings, many stocks have RSIs below 20, indicating widespread overselling, as investors may be looking for buying opportunities at lower prices, reflecting expectations for a future rebound.









